Marshall beats Middle Tennessee 28-26

Team pages: Middle Tennessee · Marshall

Middle Tennessee1-126
Marshall1-128Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W.Va. · Crowd 25,662ESPN+

Marshall beat Middle Tennessee 28-26.

We had Marshall favored. It won.

Next: Middle Tennessee beat Nevada 27-20, Sat Sep 19

Next: Marshall beat Missouri State 30-24, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Gagliano 11-yd TD pass to Lacy, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 20-14 (Q3, 5:36). Marshall went from 73% to 50% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Marshall a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (Marshall was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.

Down to 34% in the third quarter, Marshall came back to win.

Up to 66% in the third quarter, then Middle Tennessee lost it.

Fumble return TDMiddle Tennessee · Q1 9:08
FinalMarshall 28-26 Middle TennesseeMarshall wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q480% at halfMarshallLowest 34%Won28-2612−23+21ScoresFumble return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q480% at halfMarshallLowest 34%Won28-2612ScoresFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q420% at halfMarshallHigh 66%Lost26-2812+23−21ScoresFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q420% at halfMarshallHigh 66%Lost26-2812ScoresFumble return TD

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 5:36Gagliano 11-yd TD pass to Lacy, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 20-14Marshall 73% → 50% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 4:18Lester 2-yd TD run, Marshall leads 28-20Marshall 75% → 96% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 5:36Gagliano 11-yd TD pass to Lacy, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 20-14Middle Tennessee 27% → 50% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 4:18Lester 2-yd TD run, Marshall leads 28-20Middle Tennessee 25% → 4% (−21)
Marshall’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Marshall -11.5), at 84% for Marshall (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Marshall scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Middle Tennessee on 4 of its 11.

Marshall’s drives are teal, Middle Tennessee’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Marshall: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 65 yards out to 62PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntMarshall: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 99Fumble Return TDMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntMiddle Tennessee: Field goal, from 86 yards out to 34Field goalQ2Marshall: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Field goalMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 55 yards out to 55PuntMarshall: End of half, from 88 yards out to 52End of halfQ3Middle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntMarshall: Punt, from 87 yards out to 78PuntMiddle Tennessee: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 72 yards out to 67PuntMiddle Tennessee: Missed field goal, from 77 yards out to 32Missed FGMarshall: Fumble, from 68 yards out to 0FumbleQ4Middle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMarshall: Punt, from 68 yards out to 50PuntMiddle Tennessee: Interception, from 80 yards out to 65InterceptionMarshall: Touchdown, from 2 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: End of game, from 31 yards out to 34End of game

From Middle Tennessee’s side

Middle Tennessee’s best moment: Gagliano 11-yd TD pass to Lacy, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 20-14 (Q3 5:36). It lifted Middle Tennessee’s win chance by 23 points.

Box score

Marshall 28, Middle Tennessee 26

Middle Tennessee covered +11.5 by 9.5. The total, 54, stayed under 56.5.

Middle TennesseeMarshallTotal yardsMiddle Tennessee 352Marshall 310352310Passing yardsMiddle Tennessee 243Marshall 181243181Rushing yardsMiddle Tennessee 109Marshall 129109129First downsMiddle Tennessee 22Marshall 192219TurnoversMiddle Tennessee 1Marshall 111Time of possessionMiddle Tennessee 32:46Marshall 27:1432:4627:14
Team totalsMiddle TennesseeMarshall
Total yards352310
Passing25 of 47, 243 yds15 of 23, 181 yds
Rushing22 for 109 yds38 for 129 yds
First downs2219
Third down3 of 124 of 12
Fourth down1 of 10 of 0
Turnovers11
Penalties7 for 34 yds5 for 35 yds
Time of possession32:4627:14

Middle Tennessee leaders

  • Passing Roman Gagliano 25 of 47, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Roman Gagliano 8 for 58 yds; Antonio Martin 9 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 9 for 72 yds, 1 TD; AJ Jones 6 for 61 yds, 1 TD

Marshall leaders

  • Passing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 7 of 8, 92 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 10 for 43 yds, 1 TD; Joshon Barbie 11 for 43 yds
  • Receiving Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 2 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Adrian Norton 7 for 43 yds

No rain and calm

79° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 9

September game-day temperatures at Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Marshall favoredMiddle Tennessee favored100%Win chanceMarshallRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Marshall favoredMiddle Tennessee favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 5:36 left9:13 p.m.
Middle Tennessee 20, Marshall 14 · Marshall 50% to win
no rain · wind 3 mph from the southeast · 75°
Gagliano 11-yd TD pass to Lacy, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 20-14

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Huntington/tri Stat airport, 8.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Middle Tennessee · 3-9

Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 136th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over New Mexico State as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 31-24 @ New Mexico State #197 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee won 31-24 at New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 34%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

W 31-17 vs Sam Houston #227 of 667

won by 14 as a 6.5-point favorite

Middle Tennessee won 31-17 vs Sam Houston. Chance to win started at 74%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

L 26-42 @ Western Kentucky #98 of 667

lost by 16 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 30-56 vs Florida International #121 of 667

lost by 26 as a 1.5-point favorite

Middle Tennessee lost 30-56 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 85%.

L 21-24 vs Jacksonville State #120 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 28-31 @ Delaware #131 of 667

lost by 3 as a 9.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 28-31 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 51%.

L 20-22 vs Missouri State #132 of 667

lost by 2 as a 2.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 20-22 vs Missouri State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 12%, high 68%.

L 16-24 @ Kennesaw State #164 of 667

lost by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 16-24 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 24%, low 2%, high 24%.

L 28-42 vs Marshall #95 of 667

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 28-42 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 51%, low 2%, high 77%.

W 14-13 @ Nevada #151 of 667

won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee won 14-13 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 19%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

L 10-42 @ Wisconsin #44 of 667

lost by 32 as a 28.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 10-42 at Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 14-34 vs Austin Peay #124 of 667

lost by 20 as a 16.5-point favorite

Middle Tennessee lost 14-34 vs Austin Peay. Chance to win started at 91%, low under 1%, high 91%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Marshall · 5-7

Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 24th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 19-24 vs Georgia Southern #137 of 667

lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite

Marshall lost 19-24 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 85%, low 5%, high 88%.

L 24-26 @ App State #153 of 667

lost by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite

Marshall lost 24-26 at App State. Chance to win started at 55%, low 6%, high 83%.

W 30-18 @ Georgia State #188 of 667

won by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite

Marshall won 30-18 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 67%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

L 23-35 vs James MadisonTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 12 as a 13.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 23-35 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 27-44 @ Coastal Carolina #129 of 667

lost by 17 as a 7.5-point favorite

Marshall lost 27-44 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 89%.

W 40-37 vs Texas State #67 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 48-24 vs Old Dominion #60 of 667

won by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog

Marshall won 48-24 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 22%, low 12%, high better than 99%.

L 51-54 @ Louisiana #118 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 42-28 @ Middle Tennessee #188 of 667

won by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite

Marshall won 42-28 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 49%, low 23%, high 98%.

W 38-7 vs Eastern Kentucky #175 of 667

won by 31 as a 17.5-point favorite

Marshall won 38-7 vs Eastern Kentucky. Chance to win started at 94%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 20-21 vs Missouri State #123 of 667

lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite

Marshall lost 20-21 vs Missouri State. Chance to win started at 78%, low 23%, high 94%.

L 7-45 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 38 as a 38.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 7-45 at Georgia. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Week by week

Marshall

  • Wk 1Lat Penn State0-45

Middle Tennessee

  • Wk 1Wvs Murray State38-14

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Marshall, 57 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Marshall’s defense

    57 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Middle Tennessee offense, 74th percentile · Marshall defense, 17th

  2. Marshall’s success rate against Middle Tennessee’s defense

    51 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Marshall offense, 58th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 7th

  3. Middle Tennessee’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense

    31 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Middle Tennessee offense, 37th percentile · Marshall defense, 6th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Middle TennesseeMarshall
EPA/play, offense
Middle Tennessee · 40Marshall · 42
EPA/play, defense
Middle Tennessee · 18Marshall · 8
Success rate, offense
Middle Tennessee · 22Marshall · 58
Success rate, defense
Middle Tennessee · 7Marshall · 19
Explosive-play rate, offense
Middle Tennessee · 74Marshall · 21
Explosive-play rate, defense
Middle Tennessee · 70Marshall · 17
Rush EPA, offense
Middle Tennessee · 32Marshall · 35
Rush EPA, defense
Middle Tennessee ·…Marshall · 16
Pass EPA, offense
Middle Tennessee · 37Marshall · 46
Pass EPA, defense
Middle Tennessee · 40Marshall · 6

The series

The series is tied 5-5

10 meetings since 2013 · Marshall won the last meeting

Marshall wonMiddle Tennessee won2013: Middle Tennessee by 22014: Marshall by 252015: Middle Tennessee by 32016: Marshall by 252017: Marshall by 282018: Middle Tennessee by 102019: Middle Tennessee by 112020: Marshall by 282021: Middle Tennessee by 62025: Marshall by 1420132025
  • 2025Marshall 42-28Marshall won 42-28 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 49%, low 23%, high 98%.
  • 2021Middle Tennessee 34-28Marshall lost 28-34 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 77%, low 1%, high 77%.
  • 2020Marshall 42-14Marshall won 42-14 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 94%, low 85%, high better than 99%.
  • 2019Middle Tennessee 24-13Marshall lost 13-24 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 63%, low 2%, high 68%.
  • 2018Middle Tennessee 34-24Marshall lost 24-34 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 87%.

Each line is Marshall’s chance to win through that meeting. Marshall is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Marshall fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 92%
  • Line · 82%
  • Marshall fans · 96th
  • Middle Tennessee fans · 74th

Marshall favored by 11.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Marshall by 11.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 6 points toward Middle Tennessee.

opened −17.5now −11.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 57.5now 56.5

Spread: −17.5 → −11.5 · Total: 57.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 80° at kickoff.

Middle Tennessee at Marshall · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington

  • 80°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 95weather score, Comfortable
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Joan C. Edwards Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 95 at 7 pm.

  • noon: 55, Rough
  • 1 pm: 57, Rough
  • 2 pm: 78, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 78, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 90, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 95, Comfortable (this game)
  • 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Marshall is worth +1.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.

66% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (29-15 home, 25-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.2 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 281 miles to get here.

Where next