Wisconsin football 2026: schedule, results, rankings

The rest of the season

One real test left: Minnesota 62%

Win out 26% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 62% to 97%, peaking at 99% before a game

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Colton Joseph 1,346 · Rushing Colton Joseph 371 · Receiving Tyrell Henry 397 All player stats

The nationAP #25week 9 poll

The model#47 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #40 (+8.7) · FPI #39 · AP #25 is a vote; our rating ranks them #47. Why they differ

The marketWisconsin by 17.5Betting line vs Rutgers · our model 71% Wisconsin

Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9

Follow Wisconsin:athletics siteBig TenYouTube

Wisconsin · 2026 schedule and results5-3Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 63% · 4 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 2 wins over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #86 to #39

Wk	Date	Our rank	Opp rank	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf	Top performers
1	Sep 6	#86	#1	+21✗ −7	Notre Dame (N)	L 13-41 122 Roaring	0-1	0-0	Pass Joseph 217 · Rush Sama III 49 · Rec Coleman 76
2	Sep 12	#77	#201	−43.5✗ −16.5	Western Illinois	W 36-9 115	1-1	0-0	Pass Joseph 173 · Rush Sama III 107 · Rec Henry 91
3	Sep 19	#89	#122	−23.5✓ +20.5	Eastern Michigan	W 54-10 123 Roaring	2-1	0-0	Pass Joseph 362 · Rush Joseph 46 · Rec Henry 160
4	Sep 26	#81	#31	+9.5✓ +13.5	@Penn StateTop 25 win	W 24-20 131	3-1	1-0	Pass Joseph 235 · Rush Dupree 52 · Rec Harris 105
5	Oct 3	#66	#125	−8.5✓ +19.5	Michigan State	W 31-3 141	4-1	2-0	Pass Joseph 145 · Rush Joseph 141 · Rec Coleman 46
6	Bye week
7	Oct 17	#48	#21	+1.5✗ −8.5	@UCLA	L 7-17 120	4-2	2-1	Pass Joseph 66 · Rush Joseph 71 · Rec Domingeaux 26
8	Oct 24	#49	#23	+1.5✓ +18.5	USCTop 25 win	W 24-7 132	5-2	3-1	Pass Joseph 58 · Rush Sama III 71 · Rec Hilton Jr. 18
9	Oct 31	#39	#22	+2.5✗ −27.5	@Iowa	L 0-30 117	5-3	3-2	Pass Hopkins 93 · Rush Sama III 23 · Rec Domingeaux 86
10	Nov 7	#45	#106	−17.5	Rutgers	4:15 pm ET · BTN71% to win
11	Nov 14	#47	#118		@Maryland	time TBA · FS183% to win
12	Nov 21				@Purdue	time TBA72% to win
13	Nov 27				Minnesota	7:30 pm ET · NBC

How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Wisconsin, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Wisconsin: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Big plays (IsoPPP)	Note
Oct 31	@Iowa	L 0-30	235	3	23:39	-0.179	26.9%	1.26	Season-low EPA/play
Oct 24	USC	W 24-7	200	0	32:36	+0.032	42.1%	0.96
Oct 17	@UCLA	L 7-17	214	0	22:58	-0.040	38.8%	0.89
Oct 3	Michigan State	W 31-3	373	0	28:50	+0.264	31.2%	1.87	Most explosive
Sep 26	@Penn State	W 24-20	355	3	29:34	-0.034	36.4%	1.48	One-score win
Sep 19	Eastern Michigan	W 54-10	479	1	31:17	+0.411	55.6%	1.28	Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12	Western Illinois	W 36-9	406	0	25:03	+0.250	39.3%	1.60
Sep 6	Notre Dame	L 13-41	284	2	28:24	-0.043	37.7%	1.26	Defense's roughest night
Season average (8 games)			318	1.1		+0.083	38.5%	1.33

Wisconsin's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast

Season line8.0 winsover +124

Offense softExplosive, big-playDefense elite

Season expectations

Win total2 booksOver/under 8▼0.5 since Oct 18

Big Ten title#10 in market+4,500

Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

L 0-30 at Iowa

Wisconsin fans

r/CFB

“I am convinced that there is a billionaire Gophers fan who pumps money into the Wisconsin NIL fund as a psyop under the condition that UW spends at least a…”

5d ago

r/CFB

“Welp, back on the hot seat you go Fickell”

5d ago

Iowa fans on Wisconsin

r/CFB

“Iowa has outscored Wisconsin 81-0 in the last 134 minutes of gameplay (spanning three games).”

5d ago

W 24-7 vs USC

Wisconsin fans

r/CFB

“This team might actually be kinda good lol”

1w ago

r/WisconsinBadgers

“I'm here to eat some crow. I thought there was no way we would beat USC. But that was an impressive win. Kudos to all the players who are clearly putting in…”

1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

Fri Nov 27Paul Bunyan's Axevs Minnesota · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Wisconsin has won three of its last five.

6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4

When you’re the head coach of a blue blood school, you have to be ready to weather the storms, the overly positive and overly negative

Riley · On3Oct 28, 20263 days before Wisconsin's 2026 game against Iowa

1 storyline developing

What Wisconsin’s season is really about

The open questionwhere does it go from here?

Governance shock2026-10-23new

Luke Fickell inherits a 4-8 losing record at Wisconsin, where the program's identity hinges on turning Big Ten clichés into results — a challenge that grows steeper with each passing season.

What happenedCourt grants injunction for eligibility.

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

Died downWisconsin's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Died downWisconsin's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

What a title game and a playoff run could add

Floor7-5No postseason.

Base8-5A bowl game.

Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open

Following now · Wisconsin · Developing

Court grants injunction for eligibility.

doubtful so far, only a few posts doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder

Skeptics7 doubtful posts

Fans: 0% volume · negative overall

Developing2 new this week

2 days agoWisconsin releases depth chart for Rutgers game

5 days agoCooper Catalano: 16 tackles · 1.5 TFL at Iowa

last weekIowa names starting QB vs Wisconsin

last weekCourt grants injunction for eligibility

2 weeks agoWin total: 8.5 to 8 (down 0.5)

Our read

Luke Fickell inherits a 4-8 losing record at Wisconsin, where the program's identity hinges on turning Big Ten clichés into results — a challenge that grows steeper with each passing season.

How fans are reacting · tap to expand

Skeptics dissentThe Boards thin

🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Badgers in 60: A 1-minute recap of the latest court hearing in…”.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Badgers in 60: A 1-minute recap of the latest court hearing in Wisconsin's suit against Miami”

BadgerExtra · Sep 17 · read ↗

“Spectrum joins Wisconsin Athletics on the field at Camp Randall and courtside at the Kohl Center”

Wisconsin Badgers · Sep 4 · read ↗

💬The boards8 board mentions, too few to call a stance. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (89%).›

Only 8 of 6800 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.

"I was a big fan of the transfer portal initially. As coaches could come and go, I understood that players who went to a University to work with a specific coach and program, and th"

r/WisconsinBadgers ~ fan take

"T.E.A.M, courtesy of chatgpt T - Together Everyone Achieves More Trust - Teammates rely on each other's abilities. Opportunity - Every challenge is a chance to succeed. Goal-orient"

r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (654 posts): 12% positive · 40% neutral · 48% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

Active arcs

Cooling

Wisconsin flips Texas Tech edge commit Brody Pfannenstiel

Is Wisconsin's flip of Texas Tech commit Brody Pfannenstiel an early sign recruits are wary of the…

Program ledgerLatest: Fell out of the AP Top 25 (2026, week 10)

The program ledger

since 2025

2026 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 0-30 at Iowawas No. 25
2026 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 24-7 at home over USCat No. 25

Roster and recruiting

Roster31% of production back, talent #30

Roster reload: Wisconsin

2026 snapshot, Nov 5

Returning Production31%Low continuity / heavy reload

Talent Composite#30 nationally247 composite 767.7

Portal Additions33Primary repair: DL

Portal Losses26Primary pressure: LB

Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded

Recruiting Reload#78Depth class

WRin 5 - Shamar Rigby3.80out 4 - Trech Kekahuna3.80Upgrade

current room: 195 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down

Transferred in

CBin 4 - Bryce West3.60out 3 - Omillio Agard3.60Upgrade

current room: 187 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Cover Cornerdoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play

Former four-star

DLin 4 - Junior Poyser3.60out 2 - Jamel Howard3.40Need Filled

current room: 306 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move

Transferred in

EDGEin 3 - Justus Boone3.70out 3 - Ernest Willor Jr.3.60Upgrade

Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins the gap play after play

Transferred in

RBin 3 - Abu Sama III3.80out 2 - Dilin Jones3.60Even

current room: 214 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Balanced Backdoes a little of everything without one standout trait

Transferred in

IOLin 3 - Austin Kawecki3.70out 2 - Joe Brunner4.38Upgrade

current room: 312 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Full roster (119 players)

UNKJake Anderson

CBBryce West, Cai Bates, Carsen Eloms, Dashaun Moss, Donovan Dunmore, Eric Fletcher, Jahmare Washington, Jai'Mier Scott, Javan Robinson

DBCarson Van Dinter

DLArthur Scott III, Charles Perkins, DeNigel Cooper, Dillan Johnson, Djidjou Bah, Hammond Russell IV, Hayden Metzger, Junior Poyser, Nolan Vils, Torin Pettaway, Xavier Ukponu

FBMcCoy Smith

LSAndrew Goodman, James Roe

OLAiden Dirksen, Austin Kawecki, Barrett Nelson, Blake Cherry, Brady Bekkenhuis, Cam Clark, Colin Cubberly, Emerson Mandell, Evan Brown, Hardy Watts, Kevin Heywood, Logan Powell, Lucas Simmons, Michael Roeske, Nolan Davenport, PJ Wilkins, Peyton Lange, Ryan Cory, Stylz Blackmon

PEthan Tranel, Will Kelly

PKBrady Melum, Gavin Lahm, Sean West

QBCarter Smith, Colton Joseph, Danny O'Neil, Deuce Adams, Ryan Hopkins

RBAbu Sama III, Bryan Jackson, Darrion Dupree, Gideon Ituka, Harrison Bortolotti, Juju Pope, Mason Lane, Nate Palmer

SCairo Skanes, Grant Dean, Kah'Ni Watts, Luke Emmerich, Marvin Burks Jr., Matthew Jung, Matthew Traynor, Raphael Dunn, Will Mikonowicz

TEAydon Fickell, Emmett Bork, Grant Stec, Jack Sievers, Jacob Harris, Nizyi Davis, Ryan Schwendeman, Treve Stoffel, Tyler Jansey

WRChris Brooks Jr., Davion Thomas-Kumpula, Dorsett Stecker, Eli Adams, Eugene Hilton Jr., Jackson McGohan, Jaylon Domingeaux, Kash Brock, Keeyshawn Tabuteau, Langdon Nordgaard, Malachi Coleman, Mason Kelley, Shamar Rigby, Tyrell Henry, Zion Kearney, Zion Legree

Top commits

Top 3 commits

2027 class

★★★★☆

Mekhi Williams

S · Ruskin, FL

#219 national

★★★★☆

Cole Reiter

OT · Germantown, WI

#228 national

★★★★☆

Kingston Allen

RB · Green Bay, WI

#238 national

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Wisconsin Defeats USC 24-7

2,636 upvotes · Oct 2026

[Game Thread] USC @ Wisconsin (7:30 PM ET)

65 upvotes · Oct 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans

Fan vs. market↓

7^th

Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)

Sportsbook win total
(77^th among FBS)

Market 70pp more optimistic than fan mood

Win total consensus · 2 books

RivalsRival pulse: Iowa uneasy, Heartland Trophy Nebraska bearish

Rival pulse

Iowa

Uneasy

-20

Heartland Trophy

Nebraska

Bearish

-25

Freedom Trophy

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Wisconsin

Athletics siteWisconsin Athletics
Athletics siteWisconsin football on the athletics site
Conference pagebigten.org football
On YouTubeWisconsinBadgers

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

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