Wisconsin4-81A top-3 portal class for Wisconsin — a program that turned Big Ten clichés into actual football — arrives as Fickell's third season begins with 6% of QB production returning.
Wisconsin spent twenty years building the same machine — a 250-pound running back behind a 320-pound line, three yards and a cloud of dust — and watched a new staff trade it for a passing game that went 4-8, leaving the fanbase to wonder whether the thing that made the Badgers the Badgers is recoverable.
Fans heard it for years — that the program was a throwback that couldn't keep up, too plodding for the modern game, a system that printed yards against everyone but the playoff teams. Wisconsin always…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · at Notre Dame · Sun Sep 6 · 23:30 UTC
Wisconsin is the program that turned the Big Ten's clichés into actual football.
With a returning player total of 40% and a recruiting rank of #78, Wisconsin faces challenges in maintaining consistency. The team's heavy reliance on transfers, including 33 incoming additions, may determine its success.
Bucky's resting between scores.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
A top-3 portal class for Wisconsin — a program that turned Big Ten clichés into actual football — arrives as Fickell's third season begins with 6% of QB production returning.
Vinny Anthony produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Lance Mason is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Trech Kekahuna: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Wisconsin dropped 25 spots in SP+ — Luke Fickell's third season opens with the worst analytics collapse in the Big Ten this cycle.
Wisconsin: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team
Fickell's been loud about culture-building all spring — a dismissal at DL right before fall camp is the uncomfortable proof that the standard has teeth, even at a position Wisconsin can't spare depth at.
Wisconsin player seeks extra eligibility
Matthew Jung hunting extra eligibility matters more than it looks — Fickell's LB room is already under a microscope at #27 nationally, and keeping a known quantity beats restarting the depth-chart math entirely.
Wisconsin guard seeks fifth year eligibility
Carrington's injunction play is part of a broader eligibility fight reshaping roster math — Fickell's development class is already under pressure at LB, and a fifth year of guard depth is exactly the kind of quiet roster management that holds a #27 class together.
Wisconsin updates injuries approaching fall camp
Fickell's optimism hits a reality check — fall camp injury updates matter more when your LB depth is already thin and the class ranked 78th nationally can't afford to lose bodies before the first rep.
4-star LB Cale Britt commits to Wisconsin
Britt is a development-class add at a spot Fickell's staff flagged all spring — #27 nationally means little if the linebacker depth doesn't hold, and this one addresses pressure that's been real since the roster audit.
Cale Britt commits to Wisconsin
LB room was already drawing scrutiny heading into '25 — Fickell answers with a 2028 development piece while the top-18 transfer class handles the short-term pressure.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
21st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Wisconsin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Wisconsin signed a top-18 transfer-portal class — 33 additions headlined by Colton Joseph (QB) from Old Dominion and Deuce Adams (QB) from Louisville. It is a top-3 portal class in the Big Ten this cycle. Signing-day rank doesn't survive a loaded depth chart. The skeptics are counting starter slots, not signees. The room is questioning depth-chart fit — not every signee gets the snaps.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Only 7 of 265 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Board health this week (194 posts): 12% positive · 60% neutral · 28% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Wisconsin enters 2025 rated No. 85 in SP+ (-4.4), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 31 of 265 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (194 posts): 12% positive · 60% neutral · 28% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 6
vs Notre Dame · neutral site
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 3 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
80 signees across 28 states, 2023-2026. WI leads the pull.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
12 games with TV coverage: 4 national broadcast, 4 cable, 4 conference network
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 4 afternoon, 4 primetime
Recovering 67% of their own fumbles — running hot vs. the ~51% league rate.
6 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 17% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
5 interceptions of 29 disrupted passes (24 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 43 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents, a 59-yard edge.
361 penalty yards committed vs. 420 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How Wisconsin fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readWisconsin fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 194 posts from Wisconsin fans this week.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
I understand im just 1 person so I don't mean shit, but I'm boycotting Badger football until Luke Fickell is no longer the head coach. He's ruined Wisconsin football in just about every aspect. We've lost our respect. We've lost our identity. We've lost our team. And all at the hands of Luke Fickell and Chris McIntosh. Thankfully, half the duo is gone. Just need to get rid of the other half
Luke Fickell More Likely To Get Fired Than Anyone Else in CFB
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jun 3, 2026–Jul 9, 2026 · via Wisconsin Badgers, WisconsinBadgers
Dear football gods please don't give our starting QB a season ending injury 3 years in a row 🙏
Not really but you can’t just ignore it as a big reason why our offense was so bad last year. Obviously there are still a lot of issues but not having your starting QB will make any college team worse.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Aug 29, 2025 · via CFB
Not having Jonathan Taylor and Braelon Allen also hurts us. They really smoothed over a lot of cracks that were showing near the end of Chryst’s tenure
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 13, 2025 · via CFB
Realistically the buyout is so big Fickell is getting another year even if we lose out
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB
The line will need to play better or it won’t go well though. The scheme is one that pretty much needs good line play to anchor the run
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 29, 2025 · via CFB
“An OT whiteout ending in back to back picks? How can you not be romantic about college football?”— r/CFB
“I never cared that we didn’t win a natty. The Rose bowls of the 2010s stung but I got over them. What I miss most and just enjoyed is that watching the Badgers was FUN. We were respected on a national stage and always had a shot to beat the best team, even if we weren’t consi…”— r/CFB
“2023 - QB1 inured week 6 2024 - QB1 injured week 3 2025 -QB1 injured week 1 2026 - QB1 injured in spring game 2027 - QB1 injured in high school champ game 2028 -QB1 injured during 2 a days freshman year HS please I just want one year with the same QB”— r/CFB
“This has by far been the worst football day I can remember. This sport is so fucking stupid. See you next week.”— r/CFB
“Credit where credit is due. The Ducks said they were going to honor the Grateful Dead tonight and I DEFINITELY felt like I was on drugs that game.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Wisconsin · high confidence
“Jason Eck 2027 Wisconsin Badgers head coach 🙏🏻”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.10 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 62 / 118 | 52.5 | 664 | 5.6 | 2 | 7 | 93.5 | 41.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.3 bottom 39th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate5.9% bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Simmons's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.14 EPA/play | 18 | 6 | 61 / 90 | 67.8 | 635 | 7.1 | 5 | 5 | 134.3 | 34.1 | 3.8 | 13.5 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage35.7% 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate5.6% bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Danny O'Neil's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 26 / 46 | 56.5 | 201 | 4.4 | 2 | 1 | 103.2 | 41.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 9 | 2 | 7 / 16 | 43.8 | 113 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 103.1 | 52.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.06 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 83 | 363 | 4.4 | 2 | 84 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 15.9 | 6.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2024 class View Darrion Dupree's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 76 | 300 | 3.9 | 2 | 16 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 15.8 | 7.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.0 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception2.3 bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dilin Jones's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.07 EPA/play | 10 | 6 | 60 | 255 | 4.2 | 0 | 18 | 10 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 8.8 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight227 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Gideon Ituka's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.23 EPA/play | 25 | 10 | 38 | 128 | 3.4 | 0 | 12 | 6.5 | 10 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play | 86 | 11 | 30 | 398 | 13.3 | 4 | 45 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 20.6% (48/233) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Lance Mason's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 31 | 391 | 12.6 | 1 | 67 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 21.5% (50/233) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Vinny Anthony's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.23 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 26 | 211 | 8.1 | 0 | 45 | 9.5 | 10 | 17.2% (40/233) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.0 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trech Kekahuna's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.83 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 7 | 150 | 21.4 | 2 | 58 | 4.5 | 5.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +1.12 EPA/play | 84 | 9 | 11 | 124 | 11.3 | 0 | 18 | 1.8 | 3.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 8 | 91 | 11.4 | 0 | 42 | 3.5 | 5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.49 EPA/play | 34 | 10 | 8 | 66 | 8.2 | 1 | 24 | 7.5 | 1.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 41th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume8 bottom 12th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Acker's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.19 EPA/play | 85 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 | 22 | 3.4 | 1.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.25 EPA/play | 14 | 10 | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 | 16 | 0.8 | 1.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 68 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight323 lb 92th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 78th to 25th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 59th percentile to the 26th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brandon Lane's full player page | |||||||
| 31 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 30 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 8 | 10 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.0% 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate7.0% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mason Posa's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 8 | 56 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 57th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.8% bottom 36th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cooper Catalano's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | — | 10 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.3% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christian Alliegro's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 17 | 11 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 11.5 #62 FBS | 6.5 #55 FBS | 3 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. The rare part: he lives in the backfield — and he covers, too 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate34.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate9.1% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 85th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 30th, now back up to 91st | |||||||||
| Thumper | 22 | 11 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 6 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · junior View Tackett Curtis's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 15 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 5.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.5% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 24th percentile among FBS LBs to the 51st | |||||||||
| 92 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 59 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Matthew Jung's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.3% bottom 47th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Austin Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dyoni Hill's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 2 | 12 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 100th percentile among FBS CBs, fell to 30th, now back up to 84th | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 21 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 5th percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 87th | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 11 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% bottom 32th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Omillio Agard's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 10 | 7/11 | 63.6 | 19/19 | 40 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 49 | 10 | 35 | 1463 | 41.8 | 54 | 16 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 16 | 446 | 27.9 | 1 | 95 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 EPA/play | 14 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 0 | 35 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+12 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #55 | #35 | -18 | Miami (OH) | W 17–0 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #38 | #175 | -28.5 | Middle Tennessee | W 42–10 116 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #54 | #10 | +19.5 | @Alabama | L 14–38 103 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #54 | #97 | -10.5 | Maryland | L 10–27 134 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #64 | #12 | +17 | @Michigan | L 10–24 119 | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #62 | #38 | +4.5 | Iowa | L 0–37 118 | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #81 | #1 | +24.5 | Ohio State | L 0–34 116 | 2-5 | 0-4 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #89 | #2 | +31 | @Oregon | L 7–21 114 | 2-6 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #75 | #28 | +10.5 | WashingtonTop 25 win | W 13–10 133 | 3-6 | 1-5 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #78 | #4 | +28 | @Indiana | L 7–31 107 | 3-7 | 1-6 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #80 | #36 | +9.5 | Illinois | W 27–10 123 | 4-7 | 2-6 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #68 | #86 | -2.5 | @Minnesota | L 7–17 111 | 4-8 | 2-7 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Minnesota | L 7–17 | 268 | 3 | 29:28 | +0.010 | 34.5% | 127.7% | |
| Nov 23 | Illinois | W 27–10 | 301 | 0 | 31:45 | +0.155 | 38.7% | 135.2% | |
| Nov 15 | @Indiana | L 7–31 | 168 | 2 | 26:02 | +0.026 | 25.5% | 146.9% | |
| Nov 8 | Washington | W 13–10 | 205 | 0 | 31:22 | -0.174 | 28.4% | 113.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | @Oregon | L 7–21 | 196 | 1 | 25:03 | -0.122 | 32.7% | 146.5% | |
| Oct 18 | Ohio State | L 0–34 | 144 | 1 | 26:03 | -0.088 | 23.9% | 137.5% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | Iowa | L 0–37 | 209 | 3 | 28:45 | -0.155 | 33.3% | 101.1% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | @Michigan | L 10–24 | 252 | 1 | 30:57 | +0.013 | 40.4% | 86.9% | |
| Sep 20 | Maryland | L 10–27 | 296 | 1 | 37:07 | -0.054 | 37.3% | 108.1% | |
| Sep 13 | @Alabama | L 14–38 | 209 | 2 | 31:04 | +0.062 | 45.1% | 101.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | Middle Tennessee | W 42–10 | 456 | 1 | 30:43 | +0.412 | 44.3% | 159.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Miami (OH) | W 17–0 | 353 | 1 | 39:13 | +0.132 | 48.0% | 103.6% | Best success rate |
| Season average (12 games) | 255 | 1.3 | +0.018 | 36.0% | 122.3% | ||||
Wisconsin fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
0th percentile quality, 100th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 40th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 1st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
6th percentile success on standard downs, 27th on passing downs — a 21-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 10th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 6th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.02; 11th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.27 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Wisconsin reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 10%) and rushing epa allowed (top 24%); the crux lives in passing epa, where Wisconsin sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Wisconsin
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Wisconsin · 2018-present
65% home win rate vs 41% on the road. margin runs +9.6 better at home. Camp Randall Stadium seats 80,321, averaging 92% full (74,199 attendance, 26 games reported).
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Vinny Anthony (WR) and Lance Mason (TE) split the targets (49/95 vs 46/95) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Vinny Anthony produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Wisconsin’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.3% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 117-play sample) — mid-pack, 107 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
57°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 79 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Wisconsin's 2014–2025 record is 97-53. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1892 · 134 seasons · .562 win rate
Wisconsin spent twenty years proving that a 250-pound running back behind a 320-pound line is a philosophy, not a cliche. Then Luke Fickell's third year produced a 4-8 record, a 37-0 Iowa shutout, and a program that looked like it had lost the thread entirely. The identity crisis is real. Whether it is permanent is the question.
Barry Alvarez built what Wisconsin became: three Rose Bowl wins in the 1990s, Ron Dayne's Heisman in 1999, the establishment of the running-back factory as a two-decade pipeline of 1,000-yard backs — Dayne, Montee Ball, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor — behind an offensive line that produced NFL starters as reliably as any program in the country. 'Jump Around' shakes Camp Randall between the third and fourth quarters and the Fifth Quarter band show closes wins. The culture is specific and it is earned. Wisconsin has not been anything else.
Fickell's third season broke the machine. The 4-8 record was the worst in a generation. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. went down, four passers rotated through a remade scheme, and the identity the program was supposed to be built around — the run, the line, the physical attrition — disappeared from the box scores. Iowa shut the Badgers out 37-0. That scoreline is the crystallization: a Wisconsin team that could not impose its will on the program most like itself. Fickell's seat is on fire. The debate in Madison is not abstract — it is the program's oldest argument made urgent by the worst year the modern era has seen.
The 2026 season is the referendum. Does Wisconsin return to the line-and-back model that three Rose Bowls and a Heisman produced, or does Fickell rebuild toward an offense the program has never been? The Big Ten has changed around the Badgers, but Camp Randall hasn't, and neither has the fan contract. Run the ball. Win the line. The 2026 team will either honor that contract or breach it — and the fanbase will be watching for the first third-down run.
Blue-collar-running-game-cathedral — the line and the back, defense that gets out of the offense's way, and a physical attrition model that treats the fourth quarter as the program's home territory. Camp Randall is built for the identity: a Civil War training ground stadium where 'Jump Around' is a seismic event and the crowd believes that running the ball is a worldview. The question is whether that identity is still what the coaching staff is building toward.
Wisconsin 2016–2025. Slipping -1.8 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope -0.41 rungs / year — moving down the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Wisconsin: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Big Ten Standing · 2025
Wisconsin is 15th of 18 in the Big Ten at 2-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Wisconsin
Luke Fickell has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
The rituals that anchor a Saturday in this program's world.
since 1998
House of Pain's 1992 song plays at full volume; 80,321 fans literally jump in unison. The stadium structurally moves — geological sensors at the University of Wisconsin's geology department have measured it. CFB's most replicated 4th-quarter ritual; the original is still the only one that's been measured shaking the ground.
since 1978
The Badger band continues playing in the stadium after the game ends. Fans stay. The 'Fifth Quarter' is a 25-minute coda that turns a 60-minute game into a 90-minute fanbase event. Built into the football experience as a tradition, not a marketing campaign.
since 1980s
Mascot Bucky Badger does a push-up for every point on the scoreboard. After a 70-7 win, Bucky does 70 push-ups — twice if it's homecoming. The single most-photographed mascot ritual in the Big Ten.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1994
Alvarez's program wins the Rose Bowl, announcing Wisconsin as a national factor
1999
Ron Dayne breaks the NCAA career rushing record and wins the Heisman at Camp Randall
2025
A shutout loss that crystallized the program's worst season in a generation
Wound
Moment of the Year · Wisconsin · 2025
Week 8 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — loss 35-31 (away). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202512 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Wisconsin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Wisconsin · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Wisconsin
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Coaching Era · Wisconsin
Moment of the Year · Wisconsin · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline