USC at Wisconsin
USC (#16, 6‑1) at Wisconsin (4‑2) — USC is favored by 3. Wisconsin’s offense is at the 90th percentile on explosive plays; USC’s defense is at the 28th.
How they got here
Last three games
USC · 6-1
Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 23rd now.
2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Wisconsin · 4-2
Rated 86th in our preseason ratings, 49th now, up 37 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Penn State as a 9.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Wisconsin’s explosive plays against USC, 62 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wisconsin’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 90th percentile · USC defense, 28th
Wisconsin’s success rate against USC’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 24th percentile · USC defense, 52nd
Wisconsin’s rushing EPA against USC’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 77th percentile · USC defense, 55th
What’s at stake
USC
- USC sits at 34% to make the playoff — 41% with a win here, 21% with a loss.
- USC is the program that used to own Saturday night, and is trying to remember how it felt.
Wisconsin
- Wisconsin needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 99% to get there with a win here, 90% with a loss.
- Luke Fickell is behind Paul Chryst’s year-5 pace (4-2 vs. 6-0) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
USC leads the series 7-1
8 meetings since 1952 · USC won the last meeting
- 2024USC 38-21
- 2015 · neutral siteWisconsin 23-21
- 1966USC 38-3
- 1965USC 26-6
- 1962 · neutral siteUSC 42-37
Each line is Wisconsin’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
USC
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has spent fifteen years hearing the program eulogized as a faded brand coasting on its zip code; they say the talent pipeline, the recruiting and the city were never the problem, and they're done being framed as a name that used to matter.
What this game touches
The Alamo Bowl overtime loss. An ascending 9-4 season ended with No. 16 USC blowing a fourth-quarter lead and falling to TCU 30-27 in overtime — the kind of one-score finish that, to a fanbase used to closing games, felt like proof the program isn't all the way back yet.
Wisconsin
The chip · vs the national mediaFans heard it for years — that the program was a throwback that couldn't keep up, too plodding for the modern game, a system that printed yards against everyone but the playoff teams. Wisconsin always answered by running it down their throats anyway, which is exactly the answer the 2025 team couldn't give.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse and the identity that went with it. Wisconsin finished 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) in Luke Fickell's third year, dropping six straight in the middle of the schedule and getting shut out 37-0 by Iowa. Quarterback injuries forced four passers onto the field behind a remade scheme — the running-game program now searching for any identity at all, on the program's worst footing in a generation.
Best players
USC
- Jayden Maiava (QB) · 2,045 passing yards — Heisman odds: 7th (+1750)
- Christian Pierce (S) · 40 tackles
- King Miller (RB) · 595 rushing yards
Wisconsin
- Cooper Catalano (LB) · 50 tackles
- Mason Posa (LB) · 47 tackles
- Matthew Jung (S) · 38 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. USC: Jayden Maiava (2,045 passing yards) and King Miller (595 rushing yards); Wisconsin: Colton Joseph (1,198 passing yards).
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (52.5 → 50.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Wisconsin fans are in a better mood than USC fans (37th vs 14th among FBS fanbases), even with USC favored.
USC favored by 3 · Total 50.5
USC by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
USC’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
USC at Wisconsin · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7:30 pm ET · NBC · Camp Randall Stadium.
- 64°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 16 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Camp Randall Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 84.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 84, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Wisconsin is worth +5.1 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 65th percentile.
65% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (34-18 home, 16-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.5 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±7.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,671 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Wisconsin
- Wk 2Wvs Western Illinois36-9
- Wk 3Wvs Eastern Michigan54-10
- Wk 4Wat Penn State24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Michigan State31-3
- Wk 7Lat UCLA7-17
USC
- Wk 2Wvs Louisiana49-30
- Wk 3Wat Rutgers42-35
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon27-41
- Wk 5Wvs Washington25-21
- Wk 6Wat Penn State31-23
Power rating by week
USC is rated 4.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward USC.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +1.5 → +3 · Total: 52.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.