USC 42-26 San José State (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: San José State · USC

San José State0-126

No. 14 USC1-042Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. · Crowd 51,144

No. 14 USC beat San José State 42-26.

We had USC favored. It won.

Next: San José State beat Eastern Michigan 27-21, Fri Sep 4

Next: USC beat Fresno State 39-0, Fri Sep 4

Top comment in the game thread

Can’t believe Wafle has that size as a true freshman. That’s insane. Kids gonna be a star with continued development

Q1 3:16 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave USC a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (USC was a 37.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

USC led by 7 after the first quarter and by 28 at the half.

Favored the whole way: USC never fell below 99%.

San José State never had better than a 1% chance.

FinalUSC 42-26 San José StateUSC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 3:16USC fans praise freshman Wafle's broken-up pass and debate empty stadiumQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 8:21Fans rip SJSU for running on 4th down instead of taking field goalI don’t think we’re one to talk..r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:20NBC broadcast omits down and distance, frustrating fans watching the gameNBC just deciding not to show the down and distance. Bold.r/CFB game threadNo down or distance on the score bug is annoying as hellr/CFB game thread

USC’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (USC -37.5), at 99% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a USC or San José State flair (481 and 44); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

USC scored on 6 of its 10 drives; San José State on 4 of its 10.

USC’s drives are teal, San José State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“NBC just deciding not to show the down and distance. Bold.”

A USC fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Box score

USC 42, San José State 26

San José State covered +37.5 by 21.5. The total, 68, went over 61.5.

Team totals	San José State	USC
Total yards	336	505
Passing	21 of 32, 234 yds	30 of 36, 341 yds
Rushing	24 for 102 yds	40 for 164 yds
First downs	19	29
Third down	5 of 11	9 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	1 for 15 yds	5 for 34 yds
Time of possession	22:45	37:15

San José State leaders

Passing Luke Weaver 21 of 32, 234 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Luke Weaver 8 for 42 yds, 1 TD; Jabari Bates 11 for 37 yds
Receiving Carson Clark 6 for 74 yds; Jerry Mcclure 6 for 68 yds, 1 TD

USC leaders

Passing Jayden Maiava 25 of 29, 286 yds, 2 TD
Rushing King Miller 15 for 63 yds, 1 TD; Waymond Jordan 8 for 48 yds
Receiving Trent Mosley 7 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Tron Baker 4 for 45 yds

No rain and calm

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the west, mostly along the field, gusts to 21

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 62 other games played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

Game-day temperatures at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:47 left12:02 p.m.

San José State 0, USC 0 · USC 99% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the west, mostly along the field · 88°

Jordan 9-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

San José State · 3-9

Rated 151st in our preseason ratings.

L 14-41 vs Fresno State #102 of 667

lost by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 3-25 @ San Diego State #66 of 667

lost by 22 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 10-55 @ Nevada #172 of 667

lost by 45 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 16-26 vs Air Force #143 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-38 vs Hawai'i #132 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 25-30 @ Utah State #122 of 667

lost by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 28-35 @ Wyoming #125 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 35-28 vs New Mexico #106 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 29-30 @ Stanford #94 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 31-28 vs Idaho #151 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 7-38 @ TexasTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 31 as a 36.5-point underdog

L 14-16 vs Central Michigan #160 of 667

lost by 2 as a 14.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

USC · 9-4

Rated 28th in our preseason ratings.

L 27-30 @ TCUTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 29-10 vs UCLA #88 of 667

won by 19 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 27-42 @ OregonTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 15 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 26-21 vs IowaTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 5 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 38-17 vs Northwestern #63 of 667

won by 21 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 21-17 @ NebraskaTop 25 #46 of 667

won by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 24-34 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 10 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 31-13 vs MichiganTop 25 #23 of 667

won by 18 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 32-34 @ IllinoisTop 25 #46 of 667

lost by 2 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-31 vs Michigan State #71 of 667

won by 14 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 33-17 @ Purdue #97 of 667

won by 16 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 59-20 vs Georgia Southern #98 of 667

won by 39 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 73-13 vs Missouri State #138 of 667

won by 60 as a 36.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: USC’s success rate against San José State, 70 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

USC’s success rate against San José State’s defense
USC offense, 96th percentile · San José State defense, 26th
San José State’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
San José State offense, 55th percentile · USC defense, 13th
USC’s explosive plays against San José State’s defense
USC offense, 57th percentile · San José State defense, 75th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

San José StateUSC

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

USC leads the series 6-0

6 meetings since 1995 · USC has won the last 6

2023USC 56-28
2021USC 30-7
2009USC 56-3
2001USC 21-10
2000USC 34-24

Each line is USC’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

San José State fans are in a better mood than USC fans (81st vs 17th among FBS fanbases), even with USC favored.

USC favored by 37.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

USC by 37.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward USC.

Home field

USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.

70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 304 miles to get here.

No. 14 USC beats San José State 42-26