San Diego State9-44Sean Lewis enters his third season at San Diego State with a 9-4 record, but the program's lower-tier status and coordinator reshuffles raise questions about sustaining momentum in a competitive Pac-12.
San Diego State is the program that gave football Air Coryell and Marshall Faulk, built a stadium of its own at Snapdragon, and — after a 3-9 bottom and a 9-4 rebuild — finally walks through the door into the Pac-12 in 2026.
Aztec fans are tired of being the program everyone respects and nobody ranks — the California school with two Hall-of-Fame names in its past that kept getting filed under 'G5.' They'll tell you the Pa…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Portland State · Sun Sep 6 · 01:30 UTC
San Diego State is the Mountain West program whose 2010s-2020s Brady Hoke + Rocky Long + Brady Hoke (return) era + 3-3-5 defensive scheme + Snapdragon Stadium 2022 reset define what California-G5-football looks like.
The team's high continuity and balanced portal churn position it for a stable season, while its depth class recruitment supports long-term growth.
The Aztec Warrior is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
San Diego State leaped 76 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record under Sean Lewis is the foundation for this leap, but top-quintile returning production means the ceiling is higher than the talent rank.
Sean Lewis begins his second season at San Diego State with a 9-4 record, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program's identity shifts amid ongoing development.
Donovan Brown isn't a money-down weapon -- his 3rd-down conversion rate lags the position, and his per-target value drops further in that spot.
Sean Lewis' top-15 portal class targets defensive line and edge depth after losing two starters — a reset for a 9-4 program still building its identity in the Pac-12.
Sean Lewis begins his second season at San Diego State with a 9-4 record, but the program's lower-tier status and coordinator reshuffles raise questions about long-term stability.
Byron Cardwell gets meaningfully MORE work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
Byron Cardwell sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Donovan Brown is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Lucky Sutton converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
Nathan Acevedo is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Sean Lewis enters his third season at San Diego State with a 9-4 record, but the program's lower-tier status and coordinator reshuffles raise questions about sustaining momentum in a competitive Pac-12.
Sean Lewis, in his second season, inherits a 9-4 winning record but faces the challenge of elevating a program ranked #86 nationally by talent to new heights.
Win total: 7 → 7.5 (▲0.5)
A top-69 portal class and a Pac-12 arrival bump the floor — but the EDGE depth gap and a single draft loss still cap the ceiling at 7.5, not 8.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
66th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
San Diego State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
San Diego State enters 2025 rated No. 43 in SP+ (+6.7), up 76 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 188 of 474 board posts (40%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (96 posts): 19% positive · 64% neutral · 17% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
San Diego State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 63 of 474 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (96 posts): 19% positive · 64% neutral · 17% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 6
vs Portland State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 18 commits. National footprint reaching 4 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
85 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
10 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 8 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 3 afternoon, 7 primetime
67% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~51% league baseline.
4 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves; 3 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
25% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
13 interceptions of 53 disrupted passes (40 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
80 penalties committed, 72 drawn on opponents — ceding 150 yards of field position.
727 penalty yards committed vs. 577 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.04 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
Boise State’s Top Players: #3
mwcconnection.com →How San Diego State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Yeah USC and UCLA killed the best conference in the sport, they should get the headlines on this crap
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readSan Diego State fans are split right down the middle, but it's more feel than fact right now.
✓ counted We read 96 posts from San Diego State fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 53% believers, 47% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
“well, at least our defense is good? also, if you don’t like that, you don’t like aztec football, baby”— r/CFB
“Rumor has it Rocky Ball wasn't "entertaining'" enough, AD pushed for more "explosive" offense and Rocky decided he didn't want to be told what to do.”— r/CFB
“Achieving this in his first year at UNM is so impressive - especially because it’s very possible to finish with 8 wins or even more. Even if Sean Lewis is turning things around quick, I still think Eck easily deserves MW coach of year”— r/CFB
“And yet again San Diego State chokes when we needed to win the most. Why cant we have nice things :(”— r/CFB
“I just tuned into the game and you're telling me I just missed the Cars for Kids ad? Whew...”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · San Diego State · high confidence
“SDSU football defense 🤝 SDSU basketball defense”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.07 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 143 / 244 | 58.6 | 1810 | 7.4 | 9 | 8 | 126.5 | 42.0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.6 52th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %59.0% bottom 26th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Denegal's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.09 EPA/play | 12 | 1 | 14 / 29 | 48.3 | 169 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 | 94.8 | 27.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 5 | 11 | 9 / 16 | 56.2 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 95.1 | 45.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.18 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 253 | 1292 #13 FBS | 5.1 | 10 #46 FBS | 50 | 22.2 | 21.5 | 8.7 | 12.6 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.2 bottom 50th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception0.6 bottom 2th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lucky Sutton's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.15 EPA/play | 40 | 13 | 97 | 560 | 5.8 | 4 | 41 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 16.1 | 18.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Christian Washington's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 21 | 10 | 48 | 267 | 5.6 | 1 | 22 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 17.3 | 19.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.7 66th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception21.6 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Byron Cardwell's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.45 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 48 | 632 | 13.2 | 2 | 80 | 10 | 11.4 | 25.6% (66/258) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Return threatRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume48 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jordan Napier's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.15 EPA/play | 82 | 12 | 33 | 518 | 15.7 | 2 | 52 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 23.3% (60/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Donovan Brown's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.22 EPA/play | 13 | 9 | 16 | 190 | 11.9 | 0 | 42 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 9.3% (24/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 61th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.2 bottom 1th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nathan Acevedo's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.79 EPA/play | 86 | 5 | 11 | 157 | 14.3 | 3 | 35 | 7.4 | 11 | 8.1% (21/258) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play | 14 | 9 | 12 | 129 | 10.8 | 0 | 44 | 5.8 | 6 | 6.2% (16/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mikey Welsh's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.17 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 1 | 18 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 5.8% (15/258) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.6 bottom 26th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume10 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Ford's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 90 | 3 | 7 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 35 | 11.9 | 11.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 17 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 4.8 | 8.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 11 | 19 | 7 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Amari Comier's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 55 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate2.8% bottom 11th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malachi Finau's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sam Benjamin's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 54 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 80th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 50th | |||||||
| 56 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 12 | 13 | 90 | 59 | 31 | 8.5 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume90 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 95th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 15th | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 2 | 12 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 10.5 | 7 #39 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Trey White's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 41 | 12 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Mister Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| Finisher | 44 | 12 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 9.5 | 6.5 #55 FBS | 0 | 0 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.8 94th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 21 | 5 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 67th percentile among FBS LBs to the 26th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 42 | 9 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume21 bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brady Anderson's full player page | |||||||||
| Finisher | 10 | 10 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 7 #39 FBS | 1 | 0 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.6 83th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Speed Rusher to Finisher, his CFB Index score now sits at the 74th percentile among FBS EDGEs, up from the 25th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 45 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View D.J. Herman's full player page | |||||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 33 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 82th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brady Nassar's full player page | |||||||||
| 31 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 12 | 70 | 8 #45 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.4% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 38th to 80th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 1 | 11 | 47 | 7 | 4 #23 FBS | 3 | 1 |
Perimeter Tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 27th to 54th to 98th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Rover | 26 | 12 | 47 | 3 | 4 #23 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.4% bottom 42th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dwayne McDougle's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 13 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.4% 84th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Eric Butler's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 11 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Bryce Phillips's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 43th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 5th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 58th | |||||||
| 17 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 29 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 23 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.2% 68th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Buxton's full player page | |||||||
| 20 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 11 | 13 | 19/23 | 82.6 | 35/35 | 92 | 53 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 93 | 13 | 63 | 2948 | 46.8 | 68 | 26 | 10 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.45 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 12 | 265 | 22.1 | 0 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.45 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 22 | 193 | 8.8 | 1 | 75 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play | 14 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | 10 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #81 | #187 | — | Stony Brook | W 42–0 83 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #90 | #189 | +2.5 | @Washington State | L 13–36 135 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #96 | #59 | +13.5 | California | W 34–0 121 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #75 | #121 | -1.5 | @Northern Illinois | W 6–3 121 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #71 | #126 | -4.5 | Colorado State | W 45–24 130 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #66 | #153 | -6.5 | @Nevada | W 44–10 121 | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #56 | #103 | -3 | @Fresno State | W 23–0 130 | 6-1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #43 | #91 | -9.5 | Wyoming | W 24–7 124 | 7-1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #40 | #106 | -6.5 | @Hawai'i | L 6–38 131 | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #64 | #38 | -2.5 | Boise State | W 17–7 115 | 8-2 | 3-1 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #57 | #142 | -9.5 | San José State | W 25–3 134 | 9-2 | 3-1 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #60 | #79 | -1.5 | @New Mexico | L 17–23 126 | 9-3 | 3-1 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 27 | #65 | #39 | +3 | North Texas (N) | L 47–49 | 9-4 | 3-1 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | North Texas | L 47–49 | — | — | — | +0.238 | 41.7% | 142.2% | Most explosive |
| Nov 28 | @New Mexico | L 17–23 | 355 | 2 | 31:28 | -0.019 | 40.9% | 112.7% | One-score loss |
| Nov 23 | San José State | W 25–3 | 248 | 0 | 27:22 | +0.031 | 42.6% | 93.6% | |
| Nov 16 | Boise State | W 17–7 | 294 | 0 | 28:55 | +0.180 | 34.5% | 141.3% | |
| Nov 9 | @Hawai'i | L 6–38 | 267 | 4 | 26:48 | -0.267 | 27.0% | 141.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | Wyoming | W 24–7 | 390 | 2 | 30:27 | +0.018 | 32.8% | 135.9% | |
| Oct 25 | @Fresno State | W 23–0 | 332 | 2 | 31:51 | +0.048 | 50.7% | 84.2% | |
| Oct 12 | @Nevada | W 44–10 | 411 | 0 | 31:24 | +0.329 | 56.1% | 103.9% | Best success rate |
| Oct 4 | Colorado State | W 45–24 | 541 | 0 | 34:02 | +0.554 | 55.4% | 138.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | @Northern Illinois | W 6–3 | 267 | 2 | 31:18 | -0.047 | 33.3% | 102.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 21 | California | W 34–0 | 323 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.123 | 38.5% | 108.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 7 | @Washington State | L 13–36 | 215 | 0 | 24:54 | +0.049 | 37.7% | 119.1% | |
| Aug 29 | Stony Brook | W 42–0 | 453 | 0 | 37:25 | +0.228 | 42.9% | 119.3% | Blowout win |
| Season average (13 games) | 341 | 1.0 | +0.113 | 41.1% | 118.7% | ||||
San Diego State fields a limited run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
24th percentile quality, 76th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 16th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 20th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
84th percentile success on standard downs, 1st on passing downs — a 83-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 75th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 5th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.11; 46th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.23 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
San Diego State reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 2%) and epa allowed (top 3%); the crux lives in passing epa, where San Diego State sits at the 7th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · San Diego State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · San Diego State · 2018-present
66% home win rate vs 47% on the road. margin runs +7.8 better at home. Snapdragon Stadium seats 35,000, averaging 75% full (26,313 attendance, 26 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington split the carries (256/350 vs 94/350) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Jordan Napier (WR) and Jackson Ford (TE) split the targets (63/78 vs 15/78) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 10 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 22 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, San Diego State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 19 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
69°F average kickoff temp; 1% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 74 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
San Diego State's 2014–2025 record is 94-57. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1931 · 85 seasons · .537 win rate
Don Coryell invented the modern passing game here. Marshall Faulk ran for 386 yards and seven touchdowns in a single game as a freshman. In 2026, San Diego State finally walks into a power conference — the rebuilt Pac-12 — three years after opening a stadium of its own.
The lineage is legitimately historic. Coryell's 104-19-2 record at San Diego State in the 1960s wasn't just winning — it was the invention of the vertical passing game that became Air Coryell in the NFL, the ancestor of every spread offense currently running. Faulk arrived in 1991 and immediately produced one of the great individual games in college history. Two of football's most consequential names share a single campus in Mission Valley. For decades, the program they built lived inside a league that never fully acknowledged that canon.
Sean Lewis bottomed out at 3-9 in his first season, then went 9-4 in 2025 — a turnaround that arrived right on schedule with the Pac-12 invitation. The Aztecs' final Mountain West game was a wild 49-47 New Mexico Bowl loss to North Texas, which is a strange note to end a conference era on, but the larger story is the arrival, not the exit: San Diego State enters 2026 alongside Boise State, Fresno State, and Colorado State in a reborn league with genuine power-conference credibility.
What 2026 will answer is the question the fanbase has been circling for years: was this always a power-conference program waiting for the room, or is the Mountain West ceiling where the Aztecs actually live? The Pac-12 seat doesn't prove the former. Winning in it does.
The Coryell passing pedigree meets Rocky Long's 3-3-5 gambling defense — that has been the historical SDSU identity: attack downfield, confuse opponents with an unusual defensive front. Sean Lewis has layered up-tempo spread concepts over that defensive foundation, modernizing the offense while preserving the physical stopping-the-run identity. Snapdragon Stadium gives the program a genuine home-field atmosphere for the first time; the crowd and the scheme are both growing into power-conference standards together.
San Diego State 2016–2025. Slipping -1.0 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope -0.25 rungs / year — moving down the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
San Diego State: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Pac-12 Standing · 2025
San Diego State is 2nd in the Pac-12 at 3-1. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 4-1 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 3-1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 2-2 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 2-3 |
| 5 | Oregon State | 1-2 |
| 6 | Utah State | 1-2 |
| 7 | Colorado State | 1-3 |
| 8 | Texas State | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · San Diego State
Sean Lewis in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2022
Snapdragon Stadium (built 2022) is San Diego State's first dedicated football venue — replacing decades of sharing SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) with the Chargers + Padres. The 35,000 capacity + dedicated football design + San Diego setting + corporate naming-rights modernity create a venue distinct from larger flagship-state programs.
since 2009
Rocky Long — who developed the 3-3-5 defensive scheme at New Mexico — brought the scheme to SDSU in 2009 as defensive coordinator, then became head coach 2011-2019. The 3-3-5 scheme produced multiple Mountain West championships + bowl wins + national defensive rankings. Long's coaching tree extends nationally.
since 1961
Don Coryell's 1961-1972 tenure produced the program's all-time peak (1969 11-0 + Pasadena Bowl + #18 AP) + later NFL coaching innovations ('Air Coryell' offense at the Chargers). Coryell's quarterback-passing emphasis (Brian Sipe, Don Horn) made SDSU an offensive-pioneer program.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1991
As a freshman, Marshall Faulk runs for 386 yards and seven touchdowns vs Pacific — one of the great individual games in college history
SDSU caps a 11-win season with the conference title — the program's modern high point
2022
The Aztecs open their own purpose-built home in Mission Valley after years sharing an NFL stadium — a program planting its flag
Moment of the Year · San Diego State · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 47-49 (home). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20265 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Demetrius Sumler — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
San Diego State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · San Diego State · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · San Diego State
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Coaching Era · San Diego State
Moment of the Year · San Diego State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline