Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon State an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon State was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
Quarterback catches a touchdownOregon State · Q1 9:39Kickoff return TDSan Diego State · Q3 6:26
FinalOregon State 66-14 San Diego StateOregon State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.06 in of rain
FinalSan Diego State 14-66 Oregon StateSan Diego State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.06 in of rain
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 14:55Atkinson throws touchdown pass to Legree as Oregon State leads 21-0I can’t believe I’m saying this but Oregon State is a good football teamr/CFB game threadNot covering Legree is... a choice.r/CFB game thread
Q3 13:36Atkinson throws 71-yard touchdown pass to Legree, making it 45-7Legree for Heisman! Atkinson for Heisman 2: Chainsaw Boogaloo!r/CFB game thread
Q3 11:16Atkinson throws deep touchdown pass to Legree, extending Oregon State lead to 52-7Quoted at the top of the page.I totally understand people trashing the defenses and secondaries Oregon State have faced but at certain point you have to acknowledge that these are still DI FBS schools and…r/CFB game thread
Q3 9:40A player made a chainsaw celebration move.RIP THAT CHAINSAW LFGGGGGGGGr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:26Hawkins returns kickoff 97 yards for touchdown as Oregon State fans celebrate AtkinsonThat was an incredible return.r/CFB game thread
Q4 13:38Nice to see them mention Sweet Home after what happened. Really tragic stuff.r/CFB game threadIf Boise State is ranked I don’t know how Oregon State doesn’t at least get votesr/CFB game thread
Oregon State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Oregon State -14.5), at 88% for Oregon State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.06 in of rain, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Corvallis Muni airport, 4.3 miles away. Full conditions below.
Every drive
Oregon State scored on 10 of its 13 drives; San Diego State on 2 of its 14.
Oregon State’s drives are teal, San Diego State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“I can’t believe I’m saying this but Oregon State is a good football team”
San Diego State 0, Oregon State 0 · Oregon State 88% to win
rain 0.01 in per 10 minutes · 55°
Newberry 3-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Corvallis Muni airport, 4.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
San Diego State · 2-3
Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 70th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 2-point win over Texas State as a 10-point underdog.
Oregon State is rated 3.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s success rate against San Diego State, 86 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon State’s success rate against San Diego State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 91st percentile · San Diego State defense, 5th
San Diego State’s passing EPA against Oregon State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 5th percentile · Oregon State defense, 76th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Oregon State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 15th percentile · Oregon State defense, 87th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
San Diego StateOregon State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Oregon State leads the series 5-2
7 meetings since 1972 · Oregon State has won the last 5
2024Oregon State 21-0
2023Oregon State 26-9
2014Oregon State 28-7
2013Oregon State 34-30
2000Oregon State 35-3
Each line is Oregon State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Oregon State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (81st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Oregon State favored by 14.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon State by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 53.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Oregon State is worth +2.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 25th percentile.
50% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 14-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Oregon State · Q1 9:39Kickoff return TD
San Diego State · Q3 6:26