Toledo beats San Diego State 41-16

Team pages: San Diego State · Toledo

San Diego State1-316
Toledo3-141Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio · Crowd 22,126CBS Sports Network

Toledo beat San Diego State 41-16.

We had Toledo favored. It won.

Next: San Diego State beat Texas State 31-29, Sat Oct 3

Next: Toledo beat Ball State 39-24, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

Favored the whole way: Toledo never fell below 50%.

San Diego State never had better than a 49% chance.

78-yard TD passToledo · Q2 1:44Pick-sixToledo · Q3 6:34
FinalToledo 41-16 San Diego StateToledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfToledoWon41-161+12ScoresPick-six
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfToledoWon41-161ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfToledoLowest 0%Lost16-411−13ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfToledoLowest 0%Lost16-411ScoresPick-six

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:44Richter 78-yd TD pass to Hammer, Toledo leads 17-3Toledo 81% → 93% (+12)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:44Richter 78-yd TD pass to Hammer, Toledo leads 17-3San Diego State 20% → 7% (−13)
Toledo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Toledo -2.5), at 63% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Toledo’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:09Richter 19-yd TD pass to DabbsToledo goes ahead 7-3Q1, 7:09 · Toledo 7, San Diego State 3▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 64% to 72%▲8%Toledo’s chance to win, 64% to 72%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q2, 1:44Richter 78-yd TD pass to HammerToledo leads 17-3Q2, 1:44 · Toledo 17, San Diego State 3▲13%Toledo’s chance to win, 80% to 93%▲13%Toledo’s chance to win, 80% to 93%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q3, 14:53Richter 38-yd TD pass to HammerToledo leads 24-3Q3, 14:53 · Toledo 24, San Diego State 3▲4%Toledo’s chance to win, 93% to 97%▲4%Toledo’s chance to win, 93% to 97%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q3, 9:06Thomas 8-yd runfumblesQ3, 9:06 · Toledo 27, San Diego State 327-3score after the play27-3score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q3, 6:34Denegal intercepted by Zay at the Toledo 33 and returned for a TDToledo leads 34-3Q3, 6:34 · Toledo 34, San Diego State 3▲2%Toledo’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%Toledo’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q3, 3:35Lucas 2-yd runQ3, 3:35 · Toledo 34, San Diego State 334-3score after the play34-3score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q3, 0:20Denegal 11-yd TD pass to Wolfercuts it to 34-9Q3, 0:20 · Toledo 34, San Diego State 934-9score after the play34-9score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q4, 12:11Walendzak 1-yd TD runToledo leads 41-9Q4, 12:11 · Toledo 41, San Diego State 941-9score after the play41-9score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q4, 2:38Trudeau 14-yd TD pass to Hawkinscuts it to 41-16Q4, 2:38 · Toledo 41, San Diego State 1641-16score after the play41-16score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Toledo scored on 6 of its 12 drives; San Diego State on 3 of its 13.

Toledo’s drives are teal, San Diego State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1San Diego State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 7Field goalToledo: Punt, from 97 yards out to 69PuntSan Diego State: Punt, from 74 yards out to 79PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownSan Diego State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntToledo: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 24DownsSan Diego State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 69PuntQ2Toledo: Punt, from 73 yards out to 55PuntSan Diego State: Punt, from 83 yards out to 83PuntToledo: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 20Field goalSan Diego State: Punt, from 68 yards out to 52PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownSan Diego State: End of half, from 68 yards out to 59End of halfQ3Toledo: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownSan Diego State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 65PuntToledo: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 31Field goalSan Diego State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 67FumbleToledo: Missed field goal, from 13 yards out to 26Missed FGSan Diego State: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 74 yards out to 35Interception TDSan Diego State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4San Diego State: Turned over on downs, from 53 yards out to 45DownsToledo: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 35DownsSan Diego State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: End of game, from 75 yards out to 63End of game

What it cost

San Diego State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.

Make the playoff

San Diego State · lost2% → ▼1%
Toledo · won1% → 1%

Win the conference

San Diego State · lost15% → ▼14%15%▼ 14%
Toledo · won17% → ▲18%17%▲ 18%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Toledo 41, San Diego State 16

Toledo covered −2.5 by 22.5. The total, 57, went over 50.5.

San Diego StateToledoTotal yardsSan Diego State 296Toledo 494296494Passing yardsSan Diego State 248Toledo 284248284Rushing yardsSan Diego State 48Toledo 21048210First downsSan Diego State 16Toledo 191619TurnoversSan Diego State 2Toledo 020Time of possessionSan Diego State 26:35Toledo 33:2526:3533:25
Team totalsSan Diego StateToledo
Total yards296494
Passing24 of 37, 248 yds16 of 22, 284 yds
Rushing31 for 48 yds48 for 210 yds
First downs1619
Third down3 of 148 of 15
Fourth down2 of 30 of 2
Turnovers20
Penalties4 for 35 yds10 for 83 yds
Time of possession26:3533:25

San Diego State leaders

  • Passing Jayden Denegal 19 of 31, 206 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Josiah Lucas 9 for 18 yds; Lucky Sutton 8 for 11 yds
  • Receiving Jacob Bostick 3 for 69 yds; Donovan Brown 4 for 51 yds

Toledo leaders

  • Passing John Alan Richter 16 of 22, 284 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Autavius Ison 15 for 89 yds; Connor Walendzak 16 for 61 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Bryson Hammer 6 for 133 yds, 2 TD; Adjatay Dabbs 3 for 62 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Glass Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredSan Diego State favored100%Win chanceToledoRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredSan Diego State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:41 left12:04 p.m.
San Diego State 0, Toledo 0 · Toledo 63% to win
no rain · 66°
Denegal 11-yd pass to Ford
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lambertville airport, 5.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

San Diego State · 1-2

Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 54th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-26 vs James Madison #66 of 668

lost by 13 as a 3-point favorite

San Diego State lost 13-26 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 65%, low 1%, high 65%.

L 10-28 @ UCLATop 25 #50 of 668

lost by 18 as a 13.5-point underdog

San Diego State lost 10-28 at UCLA. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 53-20 vs Portland State #242 of 668

won by 33 as a 38.5-point favorite

San Diego State won 53-20 vs Portland State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Toledo · 2-1

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 44th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 49-48 vs Temple #95 of 668

won by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

Toledo won 49-48 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 70%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut #191 of 668

won by 53 as a 36.5-point favorite

Toledo won 63-10 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 98%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 20-30 @ Michigan State #157 of 668

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

Toledo lost 20-30 at Michigan State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 27%.

Week by week

Toledo

Wk 1: L 20-30 at Michigan State▼10Michigan StateWk 2: W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut▲53C. ConnecticutWk 3: W 49-48 vs Temple▲1Temple
  • Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
  • Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10
  • Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48

San Diego State

Wk 1: W 53-20 vs Portland State▲33Portland StateWk 2: L 10-28 at UCLA▼18UCLAWk 3: L 13-26 vs James Madison▼13James Madison
  • Wk 1Wvs Portland State53-20
  • Wk 2Lat UCLA10-28
  • Wk 3Lvs James Madison13-26

Power rating by week

Toledo is rated 1.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

642Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3ToledoSan Diego State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: San Diego State’s rushing EPA against Toledo, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. San Diego State’s EPA/play against Toledo’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    San Diego State offense, 3rd percentile · Toledo defense, 84th

  2. San Diego State’s rushing EPA against Toledo’s defense

    87 pointsweakerstronger50th

    San Diego State offense, 4th percentile · Toledo defense, 91st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

San Diego StateToledo
EPA/play, offense
San Diego State · 3Toledo · 79
EPA/play, defense
San Diego State · 31Toledo · 84
Success rate, offense
San Diego State · 5Toledo · 44
Success rate, defense
San Diego State · 5Toledo · 97
Explosive-play rate, offense
San Diego State…Toledo · 99
Explosive-play rate, defense
San Diego State · 93Toledo · 16
Rush EPA, offense
San Diego State · 4Toledo · 47
Rush EPA, defense
San Diego State · 46Toledo · 91
Pass EPA, offense
San Diego State · 5Toledo · 87
Pass EPA, defense
San Diego State · 29Toledo · 51

The series

San Diego State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2022 · San Diego State won the last meeting

  • 2022San Diego State 17-14Toledo lost 14-17 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 58%, low 7%, high 74%.

Each line is Toledo’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 68%
  • Line · 58%
  • Toledo fans · 72nd
  • San Diego State fans · 51st

Toledo favored by 2.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Toledo by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Toledo.

opened +1.5now −2.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 48.5now 50.5

Spread: +1.5 → −2.5 · Total: 48.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 69° at kickoff.

San Diego State at Toledo · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Glass Bowl, Toledo

  • 69°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Glass Bowl that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 100 at noon.

  • noon: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 2 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 4 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 5 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 96, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 94, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.

74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (31-11 home, 23-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,929 miles to get here.

Where next