Temple at Toledo
Temple (1‑1) travels to Toledo (1‑1), with Toledo favored by 6. The model gives Toledo a 76% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Temple · 1-1
Picked #90 in the preseason · now #90 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 9–27 vs Penn StateTop 25 #36 of 669
lost by 18 as a 24.5-point underdog
W 38–14 vs Rhode Island #108 of 669
won by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite
Last two games
Toledo · 1-1
Picked #48 in the preseason · now #48 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 63–10 vs Central Connecticut #188 of 669
won by 53 as a 36.5-point favorite
L 20–30 @ Michigan State #158 of 669
lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog
What’s at stake
Temple
- Temple hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
Toledo
- Toledo sits at 1% to make the CFP field — 1% with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Toledo is coming off a 53-point win.
The series
Toledo leads the series 7-3
10 meetings since 1962 · Toledo has won the last 2
- 2015 · neutral siteToledo 32–17
- 2011Toledo 36–13
- 2009Temple 40–24
- 2005Toledo 42–17
- 2004Toledo 45–17
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Temple
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are sick of being the program everyone treats as a coaching stepping-stone — the place a Rhule or an Addazio uses to get to the next job. They want Keeler's refusal to be realistic to mean Temple finally keeps a winner instead of exporting one.
What this game touches
The post-Rhule freefall. After Rhule's 2016 AAC title and the program's late-2010s peak, Temple fell apart — a string of two- and three-win seasons that gutted the roster and the relevance, until K.C. Keeler arrived in 2025, went 5-7 in year one, and notably lost zero starters to the transfer portal afterward.
Toledo
The chip · vs the national mediaFans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the Rockets are a destination worth respecting, not just a launchpad.
Best players
Temple
- Curly Ordonez (LB) · 20 tackles
- Keveun Mason (RB) · 234 rushing yards
- Saboor Karriem (S) · 14 tackles
Toledo
- Isaac Zay (LB) · 19 tackles
- Julian Fox (LB) · 18 tackles
- Mo Conteh (S) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −6 · O/U 50.5
Conditions
79°F · 5 mph wind
Toledo is worth +6.4 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
74% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (29–10 home, 21–24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +10.1 at home vs. away over 74 games — outside the ±6.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 458 miles to get here.
Recent games
Toledo
- Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
- Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10
Temple
- Wk 1Wvs Rhode Island38-14
- Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −5 → −6 · Total: 51 → 50.5
Book hold: 4.1%