Toledo beats Temple 49-48 in overtime

Team pages: Temple · Toledo

Temple1-248
Toledo2-149Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio · Crowd 19,011CBS Sports Network

Toledo beat Temple 49-48 in overtime after its win chance fell to 1%.

Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 890 games since 2018.

We had Toledo favored. It won.

Next: Temple lost to Army 21-17, Fri Sep 25

Next: Toledo beat San Diego State 41-16, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Richter 23-yd TD pass to Barnett, ties it 42-42 (Q4, 0:54). Toledo went from 18% to 67% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

21 unansweredToledo · OT
FinalToledo 49-48 TempleToledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT31% at halfToledoTempleLowest 0%Won49-48123+23−38+49Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT31% at halfToledoTempleLowest 0%Won49-48123Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT69% at halfTempleToledoLost48-49123−23+38−49Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT69% at halfTempleToledoLost48-49123Scores21 unanswered

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:55FumbleSheppard sacked for a 6-yd loss, fumblesToledo 28% → 51% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 11:40Sheppard 69-yd TD pass to Chase, Temple goes ahead 35-28Toledo 65% → 27% (−38)
  3. 3Q4 0:54Richter 23-yd TD pass to Barnett, ties it 42-42Toledo 18% → 67% (+49)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:55FumbleSheppard sacked for a 6-yd loss, fumblesTemple 72% → 49% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 11:40Sheppard 69-yd TD pass to Chase, Temple goes ahead 35-28Temple 35% → 73% (+38)
  3. 3Q4 0:54Richter 23-yd TD pass to Barnett, ties it 42-42Temple 82% → 33% (−49)
Toledo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Toledo -4.5), at 70% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Toledo’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:10Miller 1-yd TD runToledo goes ahead 7-3Q1, 8:10 · Toledo 7, Temple 3▲4%Toledo’s chance to win, 71% to 75%▲4%Toledo’s chance to win, 71% to 75%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 2:00Sheppard 2-yd TD pass to SchlafferTemple goes ahead 10-7Q1, 2:00 · Toledo 7, Temple 10▼15%Toledo’s chance to win, 72% to 57%▼15%Toledo’s chance to win, 72% to 57%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 6:48Brown 3-yd TD runTemple leads 17-7Q2, 6:48 · Toledo 7, Temple 17▼13%Toledo’s chance to win, 45% to 32%▼13%Toledo’s chance to win, 45% to 32%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q2, 0:02Sheppard 9-yd TD pass to BrownTemple leads 24-14Q2, 0:02 · Toledo 14, Temple 24▼12%Toledo’s chance to win, 43% to 31%▼12%Toledo’s chance to win, 43% to 31%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q3, 10:29Richter 9-yd TD pass to Newellcuts it to 24-21Q3, 10:29 · Toledo 21, Temple 24▲13%Toledo’s chance to win, 34% to 47%▲13%Toledo’s chance to win, 34% to 47%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q4, 14:55Sheppard sacked for a 6-yd lossfumblesQ4, 14:55 · Toledo 21, Temple 27▲23%Toledo’s chance to win, 28% to 51%▲23%Toledo’s chance to win, 28% to 51%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 12:29Richter 9-yd TD pass to WalendzakToledo goes ahead 28-27Q4, 12:29 · Toledo 28, Temple 27▲15%Toledo’s chance to win, 50% to 65%▲15%Toledo’s chance to win, 50% to 65%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  8. Q4, 11:40Sheppard 69-yd TD pass to ChaseTemple goes ahead 35-28Q4, 11:40 · Toledo 28, Temple 35▼38%Toledo’s chance to win, 65% to 27%▼38%Toledo’s chance to win, 65% to 27%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  9. Q4, 6:40Brown 2-yd TD runTemple leads 42-28Q4, 6:40 · Toledo 28, Temple 42▼9%Toledo’s chance to win, 15% to 6%▼9%Toledo’s chance to win, 15% to 6%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  10. Q4, 1:05Richter 10-yd TD pass to Millercuts it to 42-35Q4, 1:05 · Toledo 35, Temple 42▲18%Toledo’s chance to win, 0% to 18%▲18%Toledo’s chance to win, 0% to 18%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  11. Q4, 0:54Richter 23-yd TD pass to Barnettties it 42-42Q4, 0:54 · Toledo 42, Temple 42▲49%Toledo’s chance to win, 18% to 67%▲49%Toledo’s chance to win, 18% to 67%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  12. OvertimeSheppard 22-yd TD runcuts it to 49-48Overtime · Toledo 49, Temple 48▲14%Toledo’s chance to win, 86% to 100%▲14%Toledo’s chance to win, 86% to 100%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Toledo scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Temple on 8 of its 13.

Toledo’s drives are teal, Temple’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Temple: Punt, from 74 yards out to 66PuntToledo: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 76FumbleTemple: Field goal, from 24 yards out to 23Field goalToledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsQ2Temple: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: End of half, from 65 yards out to 65End of halfQ3Toledo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 30Field goalToledo: Turned over on downs, from 71 yards out to 34DownsTemple: Fumble, from 66 yards out to 68FumbleQ4Toledo: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Punt, from 0 yards out to 3PuntTemple: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 36DownsTemple: Punt, from 64 yards out to 72PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: End of game, from 75 yards out to 65End of gameOTToledo: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0Touchdown

From Temple’s side

Temple’s best moment: Sheppard 69-yd TD pass to Chase, Temple goes ahead 35-28 (Q4 11:40). It lifted Temple’s win chance by 38 points.

5 lead changes. Too close to call on 48% of plays. The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.

What it cost

Toledo’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Temple · lost0% → 0%
Toledo · won1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Temple · lost2% → ▼1%
Toledo · won25% → ▲26%25%▲ 26%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Toledo 49, Temple 48

Temple covered +4.5 by 3.5. The total, 97, went over 48.5.

TempleToledoTotal yardsTemple 425Toledo 536425536Passing yardsTemple 164Toledo 429164429Rushing yardsTemple 261Toledo 107261107First downsTemple 21Toledo 272127TurnoversTemple 1Toledo 111Time of possessionTemple 33:38Toledo 26:2233:3826:22
Team totalsTempleToledo
Total yards425536
Passing12 of 23, 164 yds36 of 51, 429 yds
Rushing49 for 261 yds25 for 107 yds
First downs2127
Third down9 of 158 of 13
Fourth down1 of 11 of 4
Turnovers11
Penalties4 for 35 yds6 for 50 yds
Time of possession33:3826:22

Temple leaders

  • Passing Ajani Sheppard 12 of 22, 164 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Samuel Brown V 15 for 109 yds, 2 TD; Ajani Sheppard 15 for 66 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Colin Chase 3 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Jovanni Bermudez 3 for 28 yds

Toledo leaders

  • Passing John Alan Richter 36 of 51, 429 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Connor Walendzak 12 for 62 yds, 2 TD; CJ Miller 9 for 33 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Terrell Crosby Jr. 7 for 95 yds; Adjatay Dabbs 8 for 88 yds

No rain through the game

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Glass Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredTemple favored100%Win chanceToledoRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredTemple favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:54 left6:28 p.m.
Temple 42, Toledo 42 · Toledo 67% to win
no rain · 66°
Richter 23-yd TD pass to Barnett, ties it 42-42

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lambertville airport, 5.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Temple · 1-1

Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 90th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 9-27 vs Penn StateTop 25 #35 of 668

lost by 18 as a 24.5-point underdog

Temple lost 9-27 vs Penn State. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 16%.

W 38-14 vs Rhode Island #107 of 668

won by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite

Temple won 38-14 vs Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 90%, low 86%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Toledo · 1-1

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 49th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut #191 of 668

won by 53 as a 36.5-point favorite

Toledo won 63-10 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 98%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 20-30 @ Michigan State #157 of 668

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

Toledo lost 20-30 at Michigan State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 27%.

Week by week

Toledo

Wk 1: L 20-30 at Michigan State▼10Michigan StateWk 2: W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut▲53Central Connecticut
  • Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
  • Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10

Temple

Wk 1: W 38-14 vs Rhode Island▲24Rhode IslandWk 2: L 9-27 vs Penn State▼18Penn State
  • Wk 1Wvs Rhode Island38-14
  • Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27

Power rating by week

Toledo is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

51-3Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2ToledoTemple

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Toledo’s passing EPA against Temple, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Toledo’s EPA/play against Temple’s defense

    65 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Toledo offense, 79th percentile · Temple defense, 14th

  2. Toledo’s passing EPA against Temple’s defense

    71 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Temple defense, 16th

  3. Temple’s explosive plays against Toledo’s defense

    45 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Temple offense, 61st percentile · Toledo defense, 16th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TempleToledo
EPA/play, offense
Temple · 65Toledo · 79
EPA/play, defense
Temple · 14Toledo · 84
Success rate, offense
Temple · 48Toledo · 44
Success rate, defense
Temple · 11Toledo · 97
Explosive-play rate, offense
Temple · 61Toledo · 99
Explosive-play rate, defense
Temple · 64Toledo · 16
Rush EPA, offense
Temple · 78Toledo · 47
Rush EPA, defense
Temple · 26Toledo · 91
Pass EPA, offense
Temple · 48Toledo · 87
Pass EPA, defense
Temple · 16Toledo · 51

The series

Toledo leads the series 7-3

10 meetings since 1962 · Toledo has won the last 2

Toledo wonTemple won1962: Toledo by 131984: Temple by 291987: Temple by 11998: Toledo by 122001: Toledo by 262004: Toledo by 282005: Toledo by 252009: Temple by 162011: Toledo by 232015: Toledo by 1519622015
  • 2015 · neutral siteToledo 32-17
  • 2011Toledo 36-13
  • 2009Temple 40-24
  • 2005Toledo 42-17
  • 2004Toledo 45-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 81%
  • Line · 64%
  • Toledo fans · 72nd
  • Temple fans · 30th

Toledo favored by 4.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Toledo by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Toledo.

opened −4now −4.5

The total fell 4 points.

opened 52.5now 48.5

Spread: −4 → −4.5 · Total: 52.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 68° at kickoff.

Temple at Toledo · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Glass Bowl, Toledo

  • 68°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Glass Bowl that day, a noon kickoff would have scored 90, against 100 at 3:30 pm.

  • noon: 90, Comfortable
  • 1 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 2 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 4 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.

74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (31-11 home, 23-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 458 miles to get here.

Where next