Army beats Temple 21-17

Army2-121
Temple1-317Final
Fri, Sep 25 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. · Crowd 13,449ESPN

Army beat Temple 21-17.

We had Army favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Disasterclass of clock management

Q4 0:51 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 25

How it swung

The turning point: Hellums 3-yd TD run, Army goes ahead 21-17 (Q4, 1:41). Army went from 28% to 65% to win. Fans right then: “Disasterclass of clock management” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Army a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (Army was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Down to 28% in the fourth quarter, Army came back to win.

Up to 72% in the fourth quarter, then Temple lost it.

78-yard TD passTemple · Q1 2:17
FinalArmy 21-17 TempleArmy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 40 mph
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50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q443% at halfTempleArmyLost17-2112+26−37ScoresTempleArmyTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteTemple fans: 1 comments a minuteTemple fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 0 comments a minuteArmy fans: 1 comments a minuteArmy fans: 2 comments a minuteArmy fans: 2 comments a minuteArmy fans: 2 comments a minute40 mph gust, the peakGusts
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The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:17Sheppard 78-yd TD pass to Brown, ties it 7-7Army 78% → 52% (−26)
  2. 2Q4 1:41Hellums 3-yd TD run, Army goes ahead 21-17airport gusts to 31 mphArmy 28% → 65% (+37)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:17Sheppard 78-yd TD pass to Brown, ties it 7-7Temple 22% → 48% (+26)
  2. 2Q4 1:41Hellums 3-yd TD run, Army goes ahead 21-17airport gusts to 31 mphTemple 72% → 35% (−37)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 2:50Temple scores 78-yard touchdown pass to Brown, tying game 7-7This camera quality is terrible. I feel like I am watching an early 2000s game.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q3 3:43Temple ties Army 14-14 with a quick 67-yard touchdown passCool to score, but that Temple D is gonna dier/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 0:51Fans criticize Temple's clock management and short middle passes on the final driveQuoted at the top of the page.Throwing 2 yard routes in the middle of the field is insanityr/CFB game thread
Army’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Army -4), at 50% for Army (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Temple or Army flair (34 and 82); both sides share one scale, regulation only.
The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. A 40 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018. Measured at Philadelphia International airport, 3.7 miles away. Full conditions below.

Every drive

Army scored on 3 of its 9 drives; Temple on 3 of its 8.

Army’s drives are teal, Temple’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Temple: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 23DownsArmy: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownArmy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntQ2Temple: Missed field goal, from 71 yards out to 24Missed FGArmy: Punt, from 76 yards out to 64PuntTemple: Punt, from 97 yards out to 88PuntArmy: Punt, from 48 yards out to 42PuntTemple: Punt, from 92 yards out to 62PuntArmy: End of half, from 74 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Army: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownArmy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 40PuntQ4Temple: Field goal, from 99 yards out to 11Field goalArmy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 24DownsArmy: End of game, from 76 yards out to 78End of game

From Temple’s side

Temple’s best moment: Sheppard 78-yd TD pass to Brown, ties it 7-7 (Q1 2:17). It lifted Temple’s win chance by 26 points.

How Temple fans took it: “I'm absolutely stunned that short passes in the middle of the field behind the line to gain with no timeouts didn't work. It just seemed like such a perfect…” r/CFB game thread

“That seemed like a let them score defense”
A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked right at the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthArmy fansTemple fansusual

Too close to call on 87% of plays.

What it cost

Temple’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 1%.

Win the conference

Army · won0% → ▲1%
Temple · lost4% → ▼1%

Before the game (September 24, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Army 21, Temple 17

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 38, stayed under 48.5.

ArmyTempleTotal yardsArmy 315Temple 459315459Passing yardsArmy 36Temple 24236242Rushing yardsArmy 279Temple 217279217First downsArmy 22Temple 172217TurnoversArmy 0Temple 000Time of possessionArmy 38:01Temple 21:5938:0121:59
Team totalsArmyTemple
Total yards315459
Passing3 of 6, 36 yds11 of 20, 242 yds
Rushing57 for 279 yds32 for 217 yds
First downs2217
Third down6 of 123 of 9
Fourth down2 of 20 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties4 for 40 yds6 for 37 yds
Time of possession38:0121:59

Army leaders

  • Passing Cale Hellums 3 of 6, 36 yds
  • Rushing Cale Hellums 22 for 104 yds, 3 TD; Samari Howard 8 for 69 yds
  • Receiving Godspower Nwawuihe 1 for 20 yds; Zach Mundell 1 for 8 yds

Temple leaders

  • Passing Ajani Sheppard 11 of 20, 242 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Samuel Brown V 10 for 96 yds; Keveun Mason 11 for 57 yds
  • Receiving Samuel Brown V 1 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Colin Chase 2 for 76 yds, 1 TD

Wind all game, gusting to 40 mph at the airport

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 18 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 40

A 40 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 40 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 40 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

September game-day temperatures at Lincoln Financial Field

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Temple favoredArmy favored0%Win chanceTempleRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph40 mph gust
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Temple favoredArmy favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204040 mph gust

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 4:46 left5:09 p.m.
Army 7, Temple 7 · Temple 42% to win
no rain · wind 18 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 40 · 73°
Mason 1-yd run

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Philadelphia International airport, 3.7 miles away, and Philadelphia Ne airport, 15 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Army · 1-1

Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 41st now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Temple · 1-2

Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 95th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Temple

Wk 1: W 38-14 vs Rhode Island▲24Rhode IslandWk 2: L 9-27 vs Penn State▼18Penn StateWk 3: L 48-49 at Toledo▼1Toledo
  • Wk 1Wvs Rhode Island38-14
  • Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27
  • Wk 3Lat Toledo48-49

Army

Wk 1: W 59-3 vs Bryant▲56BryantWk 2: L 24-28 vs South Florida▼4South Florida
  • Wk 1Wvs Bryant59-3
  • Wk 2Lvs South Florida24-28

Power rating by week

Army is rated 5.6 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

61-3Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3TempleArmy

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Army’s EPA/play against Temple, 83 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Army’s EPA/play against Temple’s defense

    83 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Army offense, 97th percentile · Temple defense, 14th

  2. Army’s rushing EPA against Temple’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Army offense, 100th percentile · Temple defense, 26th

  3. Army’s explosive plays against Temple’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Army offense, 5th percentile · Temple defense, 64th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ArmyTemple
EPA/play, offense
Army · 97Temple · 65
EPA/play, defense
Army · 17Temple · 14
Success rate, offense
Army · 98Temple · 48
Success rate, defense
Army · 25Temple · 11
Explosive-play rate, offense
Army · 5Temple · 61
Explosive-play rate, defense
Army · 12Temple · 64
Rush EPA, offense
Army · 100Temple · 78
Rush EPA, defense
Army · 11Temple · 26
Pass EPA, offense
Army · 12Temple · 48
Pass EPA, defense
Army · 26Temple · 16

The series

Army leads the series 8-7

15 meetings since 1943 · Army has won the last 4

Temple wonArmy won1943: Army by 511987: Army by 101993: Army by 351994: Temple by 32007: Army by 162008: Temple by 282009: Temple by 142010: Temple by 72011: Temple by 282012: Temple by 312013: Temple by 192016: Army by 152017: Army by 32024: Army by 282025: Army by 119432025
  • 2025Army 14-13Temple lost 13-14 at Army. Chance to win started at 17%, low 5%, high 42%.
  • 2024Army 42-14Temple lost 14-42 vs Army. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 27%.
  • 2017Army 31-28
  • 2016Army 28-13
  • 2013Temple 33-14

Each line is Temple’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Temple fans are in a better mood than Army fans (51st vs 26th among FBS fanbases), even with Army favored.

50-50Model 33% · Line 37%Temple fans · 51stArmy fans · 26thArmyTemple

Army favored by 4 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Army by 4, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Army.

opened +3now +4

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Spread: +3 → +4 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Temple is worth +3.0 points (±4.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 29th percentile.

41% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (19-27 home, 11-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full American Athletic standings