Temple beats South Florida 17-13
Team pages: Temple · South Florida
Temple beat South Florida 17-13. Share this game
We had South Florida favored. Temple won.
Top comment in the game thread
Who is Tim Becks agent
How it swung
The turning point: Sheppard 34-yd TD run, Temple goes ahead 17-13 (Q4, 3:08). Temple went from 25% to 53% to win. Fans right then: “Who is Tim Becks agent” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Temple a 25% chance, and the closing betting line (Temple was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.
Down to 18% in the fourth quarter, Temple came back to win.
Up to 82% in the fourth quarter, then South Florida lost it.
Temple 17-13 South Florida
Temple wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Florida 13-17 TempleSouth Florida lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:08Sheppard 34-yd TD run, Temple goes ahead 17-13Temple 25% → 53% (+28)
- 2Q4 1:474th and 8Van Buren incomplete to Reuben, turnover on downsTemple 55% → 83% (+28)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:08Sheppard 34-yd TD run, Temple goes ahead 17-13South Florida 75% → 47% (−28)
- 2Q4 1:474th and 8Van Buren incomplete to Reuben, turnover on downsSouth Florida 45% → 17% (−28)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 8:01Gramatica misses a 52-yard field goal as fans criticize his reliability
Gramatica being featured in the school ad right after that FG attempt
r/CFB game thread - Q2 5:22Fans criticize USF punt and Temple offense as score remains tied 3-3
Can’t even get a punt off cleanly in one try. We suck. I know we have two or three injuries but this OL play is unacceptable.
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:45Sheppard 24-yd TD pass to Bermudez, Temple goes ahead 10-3
Bronx bomber to the Bermuda triangle... TOUCHDOWN! Hoo hoo.
r/CFB game thread - Q3 4:08Temple's Sheppard fumbles near the goal line, giving South Florida a crucial turnover
One time where going after contact was the wrong move.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:58Fans demand firing coach Tim Beck after USF turnover on downsQuoted at the top of the page.
Tarmac Tim Beck. Leave him on Dale Mabry.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:30Temple fans celebrate as Reuben fumbles and Temple recovers with 30 seconds left
6-6 is back on the menu, boys!!!!
r/CFB game threadAlright I see the vision now. Back it all the way up to the 1 on penalties so we can go 100 yards with 4 seconds left.
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Florida -5.5), at 26% for Temple (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Temple’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q2, 0:45Sheppard 24-yd TD pass to BermudezTemple goes ahead 10-3Q2, 0:45 · Temple 10, South Florida 3▲12%Temple’s chance to win, 44% to 56%▲12%Temple’s chance to win, 44% to 56%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 4:08Sheppard 14-yd runfumblesQ3, 4:08 · Temple 10, South Florida 10▼10%Temple’s chance to win, 44% to 34%▼10%Temple’s chance to win, 44% to 34%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 3:08Sheppard 34-yd TD runTemple goes ahead 17-13Q4, 3:08 · Temple 17, South Florida 13▲28%Temple’s chance to win, 25% to 53%▲28%Temple’s chance to win, 25% to 53%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Temple scored on 3 of its 9 drives; South Florida on 3 of its 10.
Temple’s drives are teal, South Florida’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From South Florida’s side
South Florida’s best moment: Crowther 1-yd TD run, ties it 10-10 (Q3 8:33). It lifted South Florida’s win chance by 15 points.
“Too much time left. I'm ready to have my heart ripped out again.”
When fans got loud
Busy
The loudest stretch was the finish.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
South Florida’s chance to make the playoff fell from 11% to 5%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Temple 17, South Florida 13
Temple covered +5.5 by 9.5. The total, 30, stayed under 50.5.
| Team totals | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 274 | 319 |
| Passing | 9 of 14, 92 yds | 17 of 32, 205 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 182 yds | 34 for 114 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 17 |
| Third down | 5 of 12 | 7 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 15 yds | 8 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:05 | 30:55 |
Temple leaders
- Passing Ajani Sheppard 9 of 14, 92 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Ajani Sheppard 14 for 87 yds, 1 TD; Hunter Smith 11 for 69 yds
- Receiving Jayce Freeman 2 for 39 yds; Peter Clarke 1 for 23 yds
South Florida leaders
- Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 17 of 32, 205 yds
- Rushing D.J. Crowther 23 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Jason Collins Jr. 4 for 30 yds
- Receiving Cameron Seldon 3 for 53 yds; Mudia Reuben 3 for 48 yds
No rain through the game
86° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Tampa International Airport, 2.5 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Temple · 1-3
Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 89th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
South Florida · 4-0
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 57th now.
4 straight wins, including a 4-point win over Army as a 3-point underdog.
Week by week
South Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
- Wk 2Wat Army28-24
- Wk 3Wvs Delaware State59-17
- Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
Temple
- Wk 1Wvs Rhode Island38-14
- Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27
- Wk 3Lat Toledo48-49
- Wk 4Lvs Army17-21
Power rating by week
South Florida is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: South Florida’s success rate against Temple, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Florida’s explosive plays against Temple’s defense
South Florida offense, 3rd percentile · Temple defense, 64th
South Florida’s success rate against Temple’s defense
South Florida offense, 74th percentile · Temple defense, 11th
South Florida’s rushing EPA against Temple’s defense
South Florida offense, 72nd percentile · Temple defense, 26th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Temple leads the series 6-4
10 meetings since 2012 · South Florida won the last meeting
- 2023South Florida 27-23
- 2022Temple 54-28
- 2021South Florida 34-14
- 2020Temple 39-37
- 2019Temple 17-7
Each line is South Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. South Florida is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 75%
- Line · 67%
- South Florida fans · 66th
- Temple fans · 66th
South Florida favored by 5.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
South Florida by 5.5, on the usual path until 0:30 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Temple.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −6.5 → −5.5 · Total: 52.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 93° at kickoff.
Temple at South Florida · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
- 93°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 72weather score, Rough
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Raymond James Stadium that day, a 12:45 pm kickoff would have scored 44, against 72 at 7:30 pm.
- 11 am: 51, Rough
- noon: 48, Harsh
- 12:45 pm: 44, Harsh
- 2 pm: 45, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 46, Harsh
- 4:15 pm: 49, Harsh
- 6 pm: 63, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 72, Rough (this game)
- 8 pm: 72, Rough
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.3 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.
41% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 924 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Florida5th1-0
- Temple11th0-1