UTSA 31-24 South Florida (Oct 8, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: South Florida · UTSA

South Florida4-224

UTSA5-131Final

Thu, Oct 8 · Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas · Crowd 17,632

UTSA beat South Florida 31-24.

We had UTSA favored. It won.

Next: South Florida beat Kent State 29-2, Sat Oct 17

Next: UTSA beat Navy 38-34, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

ESPN: USF brings the number 1 defense in the American to UTSA. USF: lol bet

Q4 1:06 · r/CFB game thread · Thu, Oct 8

How it swung

The turning point: Peterson 1-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-24 (Q4, 0:15). UTSA went from 59% to 99% to win. Fans right then: “ESPN: USF brings the number 1 defense in the American to UTSA. USF: lol bet” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

A tight one: UTSA bottomed out at 36% and won.

South Florida never had better than a 64% chance.

TargetingQ2 6:30

FinalUTSA 31-24 South FloridaUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 0:11Van Buren 42-yd TD pass to Rodgers, South Florida goes ahead 14-7UTSA 62% → 46% (−16)
2Q4 0:15Peterson 1-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-24UTSA 59% → 99% (+40)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 0:11Van Buren 42-yd TD pass to Rodgers, South Florida goes ahead 14-7South Florida 38% → 54% (+16)
2Q4 0:15Peterson 1-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-24South Florida 41% → 1% (−40)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 8:51Fans decry no flag on late hit during Amador punt returnDo flags even exist for the other teamr/CFB game thread
Q2 6:47UTSA's Tucker Jr. is disqualified for targeting on Van Buren Jr.'s passYep. 100% targeting. And of course the refs didn't throw a flag at first.r/CFB game threadThat’s targeting. Least it looked like it lover/CFB game thread
Q4 1:56USF's Van Buren throws a touchdown pass to Crowther as UTSA defense leaves him wide openThat was the most obvious throw ever, wtf defenser/CFB game thread
Q4 1:06UTSA fans celebrate Henderson's run and mock USF's run defenseWhy did bro squib? Gave him a free 7 yards smhr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

UTSA’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UTSA -5.5), at 67% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UTSA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UTSA scored on 6 of its 10 drives; South Florida on 4 of its 10.

UTSA’s drives are teal, South Florida’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From South Florida’s side

South Florida’s best moment: Van Buren 42-yd TD pass to Rodgers, South Florida goes ahead 14-7 (Q1 0:11). It lifted South Florida’s win chance by 16 points.

“What does the dry erase board say?”

A UTSA fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The jump was loud; the crowd was steady.

Too close to call on 63% of plays.

What it cost

South Florida’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 1%.

Make the playoff

South Florida · lost3% → ▼1%

UTSA · won9% → ▲11%

Win the conference

South Florida · lost11% → ▼5%

UTSA · won24% → ▲30%

Before the game (October 7, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UTSA 31, South Florida 24

UTSA covered −5.5 by 1.5. The total, 55, went over 49.5.

Team totals	South Florida	UTSA
Total yards	288	486
Passing	16 of 30, 177 yds	22 of 32, 209 yds
Rushing	31 for 111 yds	43 for 277 yds
First downs	19	25
Third down	3 of 11	8 of 14
Fourth down	2 of 2	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	5 for 35 yds	7 for 73 yds
Time of possession	27:35	32:25

South Florida leaders

Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 16 of 29, 177 yds, 2 TD
Rushing D.J. Crowther 20 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Jason Collins Jr. 4 for 17 yds
Receiving Bryson Rodgers 5 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Mudia Reuben 2 for 21 yds

UTSA leaders

Passing Owen McCown 22 of 31, 209 yds
Rushing A'Marion Peterson 12 for 92 yds, 3 TD; Will Henderson III 13 for 86 yds
Receiving David Amador 9 for 70 yds; AJ Wilson 2 for 35 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Florida · 4-1

Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 60th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-17 vs Temple #81 of 668

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 14-6 @ Bowling Green #154 of 668

won by 8 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 59-17 vs Delaware State #183 of 668

won by 42 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 28-24 @ Army #38 of 668

won by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 19-9 vs Florida International #119 of 668

won by 10 as a 14.5-point favorite

Last three games

UTSA · 4-1

Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 23rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 16-14 @ Rice #128 of 668

won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 59-45 vs Colorado State #72 of 668

won by 14 as a 14.5-point favorite

L 6-30 @ TexasTop 25 #4 of 668

lost by 24 as a 29.5-point underdog

W 31-26 @ Texas State #32 of 668

won by 5 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 45-16 vs UT Rio Grande Valley #139 of 668

won by 29 as a 28.5-point favorite

Week by week

UTSA

Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
Wk 2Wat Texas State31-26
Wk 3Lat Texas6-30
Wk 4Wvs Colorado State59-45
Wk 5Wat Rice16-14

South Florida

Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
Wk 2Wat Army28-24
Wk 3Wvs Delaware State59-17
Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
Wk 5Lvs Temple13-17

Power rating by week

UTSA is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s explosive plays against South Florida, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UTSA’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
UTSA offense, 16th percentile · South Florida defense, 97th
South Florida’s rushing EPA against UTSA’s defense
South Florida offense, 72nd percentile · UTSA defense, 14th
South Florida’s success rate against UTSA’s defense
South Florida offense, 74th percentile · UTSA defense, 37th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

South FloridaUTSA

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2023 · South Florida won the last meeting

2025South Florida 55-23
2023UTSA 49-21

Each line is UTSA’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

South Florida fans are in a better mood than UTSA fans (77th vs 50th among FBS fanbases), even with UTSA favored.

UTSA favored by 5.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

UTSA by 5.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward South Florida.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UTSA is worth +7.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

73% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (35-13 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.1 at home vs. away over 105 games — outside the ±5.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 973 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

UTSA3rd1-0
South Florida8th1-1

Full American Athletic standings

UTSA beats South Florida 31-24