2Army climbs into top 41% power rating, joining dynasty ranks.
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
2Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Army's whole season bends toward one Saturday in December — Beat Navy — and in 2025 the Black Knights lost it 17-16, surrendering the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy and the only standard West Point truly keeps.
Black Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty — a parade of cadets and a salute — and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the r…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Bryant · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
Army is the West Point service academy whose triple-option offense and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy chase make every Saturday a salute to a different version of college football.
With only 25% of returning players and a recruiting rank of #138, Army faces significant challenges in maintaining consistency. The team lost two key transfers, including OT Josh Manecke, but has no incoming transfers to offset the departure.
The mule stands at attention.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Carson Smith sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
Noah Short produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Jeff Monken enters his 11th season with a 7-6 record, navigating a coordinator-driven reshaping of a unit at a program defined by its triple-option identity and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy pursuit.
Noah Short is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Army collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — Jeff Monken's task is to halt the slide under the weight of a triple-option offense with no talent advantage.
Felton commits to Army
SP+ dropped Army 37 spots, class sits at #130 nationally, and the OT depth pressure is real — Felton's commitment at least shores up a defensive back room that needed bodies before fall camp.
LB Nick Miletto commits to Army
Miletto slots into a linebacker room that needed bodies behind the starters — class rank 130 doesn't tell the whole story when Monken's defense just jumped 37 spots in SP+ and needs the depth to sustain it.
Ryder Reeve commits to Army
OT depth was a pressure point at #130 nationally — Reeve's family military background isn't a recruiting pitch here, it's the actual reason he's there, and Monken's line room needed this body.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
5th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Army · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Army: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 49 of 132 board posts (37%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 41% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago. It is a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs Bryant · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 22 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
189 signees across 36 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
12 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 3 ESPN, 5 cable, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 7 noon, 3 afternoon, 2 primetime
Recovering 50% of their own fumbles — in line with the ~51% league rate.
4 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 22% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
8 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 34 penalties committed vs. 63 drawn on opponents, a 203-yard edge.
285 penalty yards committed vs. 488 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Army fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
~ our readArmy fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 60 posts from Army fans this week.
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
“Department of Defense is dead. Department of WAR is here. Absolutely love how aggressive Jeff was in this game. Tarleton State is legit.”— r/CFB
“Some great execution and smart play-calling at the end of the game. This team is a lot better than the 5-4 record suggests. Save for 1-2 key mistakes in previous games, there is a world where this team could’ve been 8-1 right now. With this being a “rebuild year” performance…”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via Academy Wars
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Army · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.28 EPA/play | 3 | 13 | 47 / 87 | 54.0 | 694 | 8.0 | 4 | 3 | 129.3 | 42.6 | 7.1 | 2.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage77.8% 100th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.0 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cale Hellums's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 10 | 6 | 19 / 36 | 52.8 | 273 | 7.6 | 2 | 2 | 123.7 | 31.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · -0.08 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 74 | 335 | 4.5 | 3 | 37 | 10 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.3 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.6% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Hayden Reed's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 29 | 7 | 43 | 254 | 5.9 | 1 | 75 | 2.9 | 3 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.1 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.3% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Briggs Bartosh's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.03 EPA/play | 34 | 10 | 55 | 231 | 4.2 | 2 | 11 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.7 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight240 lb 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.5 bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Carson Smith's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.18 EPA/play | 33 | 10 | 40 | 187 | 4.7 | 1 | 15 | 3.5 | 0 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Jake Rendina's full player pageWeight240 lb 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.5% bottom 26th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.13 EPA/play | 15 | 13 | 32 | 438 | 13.7 | 2 | 44 | 15.7 | 26.9 | 51.1% (47/92) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.4 51th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Short's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +1.57 EPA/play | 84 | 8 | 14 | 381 | 27.2 | 2 | 68 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 21.7% (20/92) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception23.7 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.6 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brady Anderson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 27 | 9 | 11 | 133 | 12.1 | 1 | 41 | 1.5 | 3.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 11 | 37 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate2.7% bottom 11th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jack Latore's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 12 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 3.5 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Dillon Stowers's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 82nd percentile among FBS IDLs to the 16th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 5th percentile to the 30th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 62 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.8% bottom 13th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jacob Tuioti's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 94 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 51 | 13 | 112 | 65 | 47 | 4 | 0.5 | 5 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume112 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 53 | 13 | 83 | 54 | 29 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume83 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kalib Fortner's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 40 | 11 | 52 | 25 | 27 | 8 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.4% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.7% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 38th to 86th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 47 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Nixon's full player page | |||||||||
| 21 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 30 | 12 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume79 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 86th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 9th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 20 | 12 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume69 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 12 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 28th to 81st percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 13 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cover Corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2021 class our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 92nd percentile among FBS CBs to the 58th | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 2-star, 2021 class View Justin Weaver's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 10 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 2 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Cole Searight's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Stephen Nnadozie's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 6 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jabril Williams's full player page | |||||||
| 17 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 95 | 12 | 15/20 | 75 | 35/36 | 80 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 46 | 11 | 32 | 1380 | 43.1 | 71 | 13 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.86 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 5 | 82 | 16.4 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.86 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 9 | 83 | 9.2 | 0 | 32 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+15 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #69 | #124 | -14 | Tarleton State | L 27–30 154 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #86 | #21 | +16.5 | @Kansas State | W 24–21 125 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #67 | #102 | +2.5 | North Texas | L 38–45 158 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 25 | #70 | #68 | +3.5 | @East Carolina | L 6–28 137 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #80 | #123 | -6.5 | @UAB | W 31–13 126 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #83 | #235 | -17.5 | Charlotte | W 24–7 69 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #85 | #64 | +10.5 | @Tulane | L 17–24 131 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #79 | #101 | -1 | @Air Force | W 20–17 122 | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #77 | #111 | -7 | Temple | W 14–13 112 | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #85 | #135 | -9.5 | Tulsa | L 25–26 136 | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #100 | #38 | +8.5 | @UTSA | W 27–24 127 | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| 16 | Dec 13 | #86 | #51 | +3.5 | Navy (N) | L 16–17 110 | 6-6 | 4-5 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 27 | #86 | #68 | -8.5 | UConn (N) | W 41–16 | 7-6 | 4-5 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | UConn | W 41–16 | — | — | — | +0.506 | 61.8% | 118.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Dec 13 | Navy | L 16–17 | 202 | 1 | 25:25 | +0.031 | 26.1% | 149.5% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | @UTSA | W 27–24 | 303 | 0 | 33:07 | +0.150 | 37.7% | 121.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | Tulsa | L 25–26 | 311 | 1 | 34:36 | +0.146 | 33.8% | 137.2% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Temple | W 14–13 | 250 | 0 | 37:38 | +0.161 | 42.0% | 91.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | @Air Force | W 20–17 | 295 | 0 | 25:56 | +0.233 | 39.3% | 133.8% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @Tulane | L 17–24 | 358 | 0 | 38:58 | +0.245 | 39.7% | 125.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 11 | Charlotte | W 24–7 | 355 | 1 | 37:54 | +0.149 | 53.6% | 82.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 4 | @UAB | W 31–13 | 295 | 0 | 36:51 | +0.209 | 46.9% | 95.8% | |
| Sep 25 | @East Carolina | L 6–28 | 290 | 1 | 34:02 | -0.094 | 30.8% | 125.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | North Texas | L 38–45 | 488 | 3 | 32:01 | +0.354 | 50.7% | 113.3% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | @Kansas State | W 24–21 | 332 | 0 | 40:29 | +0.170 | 39.0% | 116.3% | One-score win |
| Aug 29 | Tarleton State | L 27–30 | 411 | 3 | 36:34 | +0.085 | 40.8% | 119.2% | One-score loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 324 | 0.8 | +0.180 | 41.7% | 117.7% | ||||
Army fields a capable run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
57th percentile quality, 43rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 47th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 52nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
37th percentile success on standard downs, 44th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 71st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 46th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.18; 80th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.20 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Army reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 6%) and passing epa (top 8%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Army sits at the 13th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Army
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Army · 2018-present
76% home win rate vs 45% on the road. margin runs +14.3 better at home. Michie Stadium seats 38,000, averaging 72% full (27,356 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Hayden Reed and Carson Smith split the carries (70/125 vs 55/125) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Noah Short (WR) and Parker Poloskey (TE) split the targets (47/51 vs 4/51) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Parker Poloskey produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Army’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 121-play sample) — mid-pack, 95 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
60°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 72 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Army's 2014–2025 record is 88-62. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
All-Time Record
since 1891 · 134 seasons · .548 win rate
Army went 12-2 in 2024 and won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Then they went 7-6 in 2025 and lost it back to Navy by one point. Jeff Monken is in year 12 — and December is the only scoreboard West Point truly keeps.
Army's season has a shape that no other program in the sport replicates. The early games matter. The conference record matters. But the thing the Corps of Cadets counts is Navy, played in December in an NFL stadium, with the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy at stake and every player headed for active-duty service after graduation. Doc Blanchard and Glenn Davis — Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside — won consecutive national championships in 1944 and 1945 with back-to-back Heisman Trophies on the same backfield. That is the program's golden age, and it sits at the front of West Point's football identity the way Bryant-Denny sits at Alabama's. Everything since has been measured against the discipline those teams embodied.
Monken rebuilt the modern program from irrelevance: an 11-2 in 2018, a 12-2 and a Commander-in-Chief's Trophy win in 2024, the program's best modern season. The 2025 reset was predictable in the sense that Army entered its first year in the American Conference with a new set of opponents and a roster cycling its roster of cadets. A 7-6 finish and a Fenway Bowl win over UConn were not humiliations. The 17-16 loss to Navy in December was. Annapolis has now held the Trophy two straight years. West Point measures itself against that result the way programs with different missions measure themselves against polls.
The 2026 season's specific question is whether Monken can sustain the post-2024 altitude. The 12-2 was a peak — the cadets who built it have commissioned and moved on, as they always do. The triple-option must be reinstalled with new personnel every cycle, a constraint no other program in the country navigates the same way. The internal debate — keep the option pure versus bring in more portal flexibility — will not be settled in the Long Wait. It will be settled in November and December, against Navy.
Disciplined triple-option football, run by a roster of cadets who will commission as officers: Army's offensive identity is assignment-perfect, clock-eating, and built on conditioning rather than recruiting rank. Ball control is the scheme's north star — possession time, fourth-quarter execution, and the mental precision that comes from a West Point standard of preparation. The defense plays gap-sound and disciplined. In a modern college football landscape of tempo spread and transfer-portal arms races, Army's model is a legitimate outlier — and in the right game, against the right opponent, still a genuine threat.
Army 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.04 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Army: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
Army is 8th of 14 in the American Athletic at 4-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Army
Jeff Monken into year 13 — a multi-decade era by modern CFB standards.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1890
The Army-Navy game — first played 1890, only paused for World Wars — is one of CFB's most-storied rivalries. The Cadets corps + Brigade of Midshipmen perform full march-on, the Commander-in-Chief watches in person, the game's pageantry is unmatched. Every senior plays their last college game here.
since 1980s
Army runs the triple-option offense as institutional identity — the wishbone-rooted scheme that academy programs can sustain with mission-defined player rotations. Jeff Monken's tenure (2014-) refined the option into a national top-10 rushing offense. No other P5 / Independent at this scale runs option.
since 1972
The Commander-in-Chief's Trophy goes to the service academy with the best head-to-head record across Army-Navy-Air Force triangle. Army's 2024 win over Navy AND Air Force secured the trophy — the first since 2020. The Commander-in-Chief personally awards it at the White House.
Opponents managed an explosive play against Army at just the 94.6 percentile rate nationally last season — elite, and true to a program whose triple-option identity is built on controlling tempo on both sides of the ball. Go Army: the offense wasn't the only unit playing keep-away that season.
Savant card · 2025 season through postseasonThe Black Knights' 41-16 win over UConn in Week 18 produced a bigger margin than any other game Army played that season, closing the year on the program's best number yet. On Brave Old Army Team: the final scoreline was also the loudest.
gamelog · 2025 season · wk 18Hellums produced a positive WEPA both passing (.35 across 85 plays) and rushing (.24 across 291), even with only 4 weeks and 5 mentions of measurable conversation presence. Beat Navy starts in December, but the production case for Hellums had been building well before that.
gamelog + roster archive · Cale Hellums · 2025Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1945
Blanchard and Davis lead Army to consecutive national championships at the peak of the war years
12-2, a conference championship, the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, and a top-25 finish — the best modern Army season
A 17-16 defeat to Navy hands Annapolis the Trophy and ends the season on the wound West Point feels most
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Army · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 41-16 (home). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Daryl Dixon — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes