Army7-6
Latest
The Navy rivalryCarson Smith sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.our read

Cautious optimism is building around Army.

belief cooled ↓ 23.6vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
56/100 · 30 mentions · top 15% of FBS
~ our read
Grounding
backed by facts
11% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 37 pts
~ our read
The model
#59
CFB Zeitgeist · +2.7
✓ measured
Explore all 2 corners of the fanbase ↓
2
dynasty move

Army climbs into top 41% power rating, joining dynasty ranks.

Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.

Hope-Doping·Offseason

Army's whole season bends toward one Saturday in December — Beat Navy — and in 2025 the Black Knights lost it 17-16, surrendering the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy and the only standard West Point truly keeps.

Title DroughtSince 2024 · 1 yrs

Black Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty — a parade of cadets and a salute — and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the r…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - Army

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production25%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#134 nationally247 composite 23.7
Portal Additions0No clear position repair point
Portal Losses2Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#138Depth class
OTin 0out 1 - Josh Manecke2.00Even
RBin 0out 1 - Trey Tremba1.00Even
current room: 226 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
2019 seasonW 42-0 vs Middle Tennessee (Wk 1)W 37-7 vs UL Monroe (Wk 2)L 10-24 vs Cincinnati (Wk 4)W 55-23 vs Abilene Christian (Wk 5)W 14-9 vs The Citadel (Wk 6)W 28-16 vs UTSA (Wk 7)W 49-3 vs Mercer (Wk 8)L 12-38 vs Tulane (Wk 11)W 28-27 vs Georgia Southern (Wk 12)W 15-0 vs Navy (Wk 15)W 10-7 vs Air Force (Wk 16)L 21-24 vs West Virginia (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2020 seasonW 14-7 vs Rice (Wk 1)L 21-24 vs Michigan (Wk 2)W 31-13 vs UTSA (Wk 3)W 52-21 vs Morgan State (Wk 4)L 33-42 vs Tulane (Wk 6)L 8-17 vs Western Kentucky (Wk 7)L 21-28 vs Georgia State (Wk 8)L 29-34 vs San José State (Wk 9)L 13-17 vs Air Force (Wk 10)W 63-7 vs Massachusetts (Wk 11)W 47-6 vs VMI (Wk 12)L 31-52 vs Hawai'i (Wk 14)L 7-31 vs Navy (Wk 15)HIGHLOW
2020 season · 9W-3L2019 season · 5W-8L
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons

Approaching

30 days

until kickoff · vs Bryant · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC

The experience

Army is the West Point service academy whose triple-option offense and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy chase make every Saturday a salute to a different version of college football.

Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Methodical, ball-control
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Army's 2026 season hinges on depth class reloading and transfer portal adjustments

With only 25% of returning players and a recruiting rank of #138, Army faces significant challenges in maintaining consistency. The team lost two key transfers, including OT Josh Manecke, but has no incoming transfers to offset the departure.

  • Roster reloadArmy's roster has only 25% returning players and a recruiting score of 39.85, indicating a heavy reliance on depth class reloading.
Data as of 2026-08-03 · Validated against program evidence

The mule stands at attention.

Army · the story right now 6 storylines developing

What Army's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew

Carson Smith sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.

narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew

Noah Short produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.

narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Jeff Monken enters his 11th season with a 7-6 record, navigating a coordinator-driven reshaping of a unit at a program defined by its triple-option identity and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy pursuit.

what happenedArmy: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Noah Short is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

narrative tension · our read
dynastythis cycle~readnew

Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.

what happenedArmy has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 41% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Army collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — Jeff Monken's task is to halt the slide under the weight of a triple-option offense with no talent advantage.

what happenedArmy enters 2025 rated No. 74 in SP+ (+0.8), down 37 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

Died downArmy's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

The Offseason Ledger · Army

3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. Recruiting

    Felton commits to Army

    SP+ dropped Army 37 spots, class sits at #130 nationally, and the OT depth pressure is real — Felton's commitment at least shores up a defensive back room that needed bodies before fall camp.

  2. Recruiting

    LB Nick Miletto commits to Army

    Miletto slots into a linebacker room that needed bodies behind the starters — class rank 130 doesn't tell the whole story when Monken's defense just jumped 37 spots in SP+ and needs the depth to sustain it.

    Jun 27Official
  3. Recruiting

    Ryder Reeve commits to Army

    OT depth was a pressure point at #130 nationally — Reeve's family military background isn't a recruiting pitch here, it's the actual reason he's there, and Monken's line room needed this body.

    Jun 26Reported

Transfer portal snapshot

-2.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: -3.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-2.0
low confidence
RB
-1.0
low confidence

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Phillip Goodrich
LB · Fort Lauderdale, FL
#1976 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Dominic Basrawala
DL · Charlotte, NC
#2846 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Maverick Diede
IOL · Kalispell, MT
#3115 national

Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020

5th percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
5th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
Market 55pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#78 in field+100000
AAC title#7 in market+575

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

Army · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor2-10No postseason.
base4-8No postseason.
ceiling7-6Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Army · Developing Confidence

Army: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

Army: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Jeff Monken enters his 11th season with a 7-6 record, navigating a coordinator-driven reshaping of a unit at a program defined by its triple-option identity and Commander-in-Chief's Trophy pursuit.
Source of record: Army: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
🎪The circus“Army Football Players Named to East-West Bowl 1000” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“Army Football Players Named to East-West Bowl 1000”
Hudson Valley Press · 2026-07-29 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“WATCH: Football-themed Army adverts divide England supporters”
South West Londoner · 2026-07-27 · read ↗
“Pair of Army linemen nominated for Outland, Patrick Mannelly awards - Times Herald-Record”
news · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Army football QB Cale Hellums named to Maxwell Award watch list”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards37% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.

This event was in 49 of 132 board posts (37%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Offense should be a little better, assuming Helums continues to improve as he did over the course of last season. D is a big question mark with lots of holes to fill and new coordi"
Academy Wars ~ fan take
"It didn't work against Navy or Notre Dame. It worked in 2024 because of a once-in-a-generation QB and a weak conference schedule, where we avoided Navy and 11-2 Memphis in conferen"
Academy Wars ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Army · Program power Confidence

Army is moving up in the ratings, and the data says it's real.

Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 41% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago. It is a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Monken's 7-6 record last season keeps Army in dynasty-caliber territory despite a talent rank outside the top 100 — proof the triple-option can outwork the odds.
Source of record: Army has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 41% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 44% a year ago — a 23-14 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissent
🎪The circus“Army Football Players Named to East-West Bowl 1000” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“Army Football Players Named to East-West Bowl 1000”
Hudson Valley Press · 2026-07-29 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“WATCH: Football-themed Army adverts divide England supporters”
South West Londoner · 2026-07-27 · read ↗
“Pair of Army linemen nominated for Outland, Patrick Mannelly awards - Times Herald-Record”
news · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Army football QB Cale Hellums named to Maxwell Award watch list”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Mixed

Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast

Opens Sep 5

vs Bryant · at home

Season line7.5 winsover -145
SolidRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

Navy
Bearish
-20
Army-Navy Game
Face-off →
Air Force
Uneasy
-19
Commander-in-Chief (AF-Army)

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

50
TX · 12FL · 5GA · 5CA · 4VA · 3WI · 3NC · 2NE · 2+14 more

TX leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 22 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

189 signees across 36 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Army 17-16
2,561 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Postgame Thread] Tarleton Defeats Army 30-27 (2OT)
1,770 upvotes · Aug 2025
[Postgame Thread] ECU Defeats Army 28-6
713 upvotes · Sep 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

National spotlight

12 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 3 ESPN, 5 cable, 2 streaming

Kickoff windows: 7 noon, 3 afternoon, 2 primetime

Fumble luck

Recovering 50% of their own fumbles — in line with the ~51% league rate.

4 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

Converting 22% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.

8 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

Winning the penalty battle: 34 penalties committed vs. 63 drawn on opponents, a 203-yard edge.

285 penalty yards committed vs. 488 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site