CFB Zeitgeist Score
15
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 26th percentile.
Carson Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
231 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 55 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Army for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Army
Returning around him
- 25% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: -2 net (0 in / 2 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Army · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #134 · 2026 recruiting class #130
RB · ARMY · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Carson Smith
- 3
- #34
- 6-0 | 240 lb
- Middletown, MD
Heisman Heat
#873
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+353%
Up 353% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Army
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Carson Smith
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Carson Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 10g
231Rush yards
55Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
23.1Rush yards
6Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
300.3Rush yards
72Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 231): needs 173/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 231): needs 256.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 231): needs 423/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 6/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Carson Smith's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Army, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
55 60th
YDS
231 57th
YPC
4.2 38th
TD
2 67th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | W 24-21@ Kansas State | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 38-45vs North Texas | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 5 | L 6-28@ East Carolina | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-13@ UAB | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 7 | W 24-7vs Charlotte | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-24@ Tulane | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 11 | W 14-13vs Temple | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 13 | L 25-26vs Tulsa | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 14 | W 27-24@ UTSA | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bowl | W 41-16vs UConn | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 1 | 11 | |
| Total | 55 | 231 | 4.0 | 2 | 11 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 231 | #318/735 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.2 | #455/735 | 38th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.11 | #192/362 | 47th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 55 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 8.0% | #387/738 | 48th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 55 | #297/739 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 11 | #546/733 | 26th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 11.7% | #307/738 | 59th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 9.2% | #516/738 | 30th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.9% | #384/738 | 48th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 6.9% | #481/738 | 35th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 5.1% | #447/738 | 40th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.8% | #447/738 | 40th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.1% | #495/738 | 33rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 27.8 | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 18.4 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 29.7 | 4.6 | 0.3 |
| Losses4g | 13.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 25.2 | 4.2 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 20.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
15Below cohort
Concern: long run (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.11Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Carson SmithArmyRashod DubinionApp State· 47% simTae MeadowsTroy· 47% simSeth McGowanKentucky· 47% sim
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Carries
Rush yards
Long run
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Marco Lee’s 2023 season.
Marco Lee
86%match
#2
Jakobi Buchanan
80%
#3
Bryan Bradford
77%
#4
Benjamin Hall
77%
#5
Joshua McCray
74%
Matches Marco on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Deon Jackson’s path through Duke.
Deon Jackson
98%match
#2
Darius Wilson
95%
#3
Kemper Hodges
88%
#4
Jake Rendina
86%
#5
Kyle Porter
84%
Matches Deon on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Christopher Brown Jr.'s sophomore season at California (2021).
Christopher Brown Jr.
71%match
#2
David Bailey
71%
#3
Chaton Mobley
71%
#4
Malachi Singleton
69%
#5
Tyson Riley
64%
Matches Christopher on
Class year
Rush TD rate
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Monken
Pass share
14.5%
125 pass / 740 run
Plays / game
66.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
3.8%
104 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Jeff Monken
Army
2025
Jeff Monken
Army
Played his entire career under Jeff Monken.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMiddletown, MD
Height6'0"
Weight240 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey34
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamArmy
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.