Army beats Tulane 20-17
Army beat Tulane 20-17. Share this game
We had Army favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Hellums 58-yd TD run, ties it 17-17 (Q4, 6:54). Army went from 31% to 55% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Army a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (Army was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.
Down to 31% in the fourth quarter, Army came back to win.
Up to 69% in the fourth quarter, then Tulane lost it.
Army 20-17 Tulane
Army wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Tulane 17-20 ArmyTulane lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:18Semonza 1-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 10-7Army 71% → 52% (−19)
- 2Q4 6:54Hellums 58-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Army 31% → 55% (+24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:18Semonza 1-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 10-7Tulane 29% → 48% (+19)
- 2Q4 6:54Hellums 58-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Tulane 69% → 45% (−24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Army -5.5), at 72% for Army (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Army scored on 4 of its 9 drives; Tulane on 3 of its 9.
Army’s drives are teal, Tulane’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Tulane’s side
Tulane’s best moment: Semonza 1-yd TD run, Tulane goes ahead 10-7 (Q3 3:18). It lifted Tulane’s win chance by 19 points.
What it cost
Tulane’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Army 20, Tulane 17
Tulane covered +5.5 by 2.5. The total, 37, stayed under 48.5.
| Team totals | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 280 | 348 |
| Passing | 14 of 26, 158 yds | 3 of 6, 19 yds |
| Rushing | 26 for 122 yds | 59 for 329 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 19 |
| Third down | 5 of 10 | 8 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 2 for 25 yds | 5 for 20 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:26 | 35:34 |
Tulane leaders
- Passing Kadin Semonza 14 of 26, 158 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Johnnie Daniels 8 for 67 yds; DJ Dugar Jr. 6 for 31 yds
- Receiving Destyn Hill 5 for 54 yds; Jaylin Lucas 2 for 37 yds, 1 TD
Army leaders
- Passing Cale Hellums 3 of 6, 19 yds
- Rushing Cale Hellums 38 for 223 yds, 2 TD; Carson Smith 11 for 43 yds
- Receiving Zach Mundell 1 for 11 yds; Tobi Olawole 1 for 8 yds
61° at the start
61° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport
October game-day temperatures at Michie Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Newburgh/stewart airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Tulane · 2-2
Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 86th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Army · 2-2
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 47th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Army
- Wk 1Wvs Bryant59-3
- Wk 2Lvs South Florida24-28
- Wk 4Wat Temple21-17
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana Tech29-31
Tulane
- Wk 1Lat Duke3-17
- Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
- Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31
- Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
Power rating by week
Army is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against Army, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulane’s explosive plays against Army’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Army defense, 12th
Army’s EPA/play against Tulane’s defense
Army offense, 97th percentile · Tulane defense, 36th
Army’s rushing EPA against Tulane’s defense
Army offense, 100th percentile · Tulane defense, 36th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Tulane leads the series 14-10-1
25 meetings since 1953 · Tulane won the last meeting
- 2025Tulane 24-17
- 2024Army 35-14
- 2020Tulane 38-12
- 2019Tulane 42-33
- 2017Tulane 21-17
Each line is Army’s chance to win through that meeting. Army is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Army fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (31st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 79%
- Line · 67%
- Army fans · 31st
- Tulane fans · 0th
Army favored by 5.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Army by 5.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Army.
Spread: −3 → −5.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Army is worth +4.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.
69% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (27-12 home, 17-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 88 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,199 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Tulane 24, Army 17Oct 18, 2025
Our History pages cover 5 of their meetings since 2015.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.