Tulane 31-17 Memphis (Oct 16, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Memphis · Tulane

Memphis5-217

Tulane3-331Final

Fri, Oct 16 · Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La. · Crowd 20,083

Tulane beat Memphis 31-17 as a 6.5-point underdog.

We had Memphis favored. Tulane won.

Next: Memphis vs East Carolina, Thu Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET · Memphis favored by 10

Next: Tulane vs UTSA, Sat Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET · Tulane underdog by 2.5

Top comment in the game thread

The gutsy call that Lane Kiffin was too chicken to make

Q4 1:42 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Oct 16

How it swung

The turning point: Stokes intercepted by Smith at the TLN24 and returned for a TD, Tulane leads 23-10 (Q2, 0:00). Tulane went from 56% to 81% to win. Fans right then: “Does Memphis know they aren’t supposed to give the ball to the other team?” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulane a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulane was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.

76-yard TD pass

Memphis · Q2 14:0820 unanswered

Tulane · Q2 4:18Pick-six

Tulane · Q2 0:00

FinalTulane 31-17 MemphisTulane wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:08Stokes 76-yd TD pass to Burnside, Memphis goes ahead 10-3Tulane 34% → 11% (−23)
2Q2 0:00InterceptionStokes intercepted by Smith at the TLN24 and returned for a TD, Tulane leads 23-10Tulane 56% → 81% (+25)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 14:08Stokes 76-yd TD pass to Burnside, Memphis goes ahead 10-3Memphis 66% → 89% (+23)
2Q2 0:00InterceptionStokes intercepted by Smith at the TLN24 and returned for a TD, Tulane leads 23-10Memphis 44% → 19% (−25)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:10Memphis Stokes throws interception to Tulane Smith for touchdown at halfDoes Memphis know they aren’t supposed to give the ball to the other team?r/CFB game threadThis Memphis team is a joker/CFB game thread
Q3 8:34Fans rip Memphis for giving Stokes the ball on fourth down instead of the running backOk now I'm starting to think Stokes might be selling this game awayr/CFB game threadThat Green Wave mascot is so fierce. Digging the striped helmets of Memphis.r/CFB game thread
Q3 4:54Memphis fans rage as Stokes throws his fourth interception of the gameThis Memphis team better not receive any more votes for the rest of the yearr/CFB game threadHow many FBI tips are gonna be filed on Stokes tonight? Honestly, that'd be better than the dumbasses that are going to be on his socialsr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:18Memphis muffing a punt with 7:18 left in the fourth quarterFor the Memphis fans that are running low on hope, remember our coach is Will Hall, we can and absolutely still throw the game awayr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:42Tulane scores a touchdown and fans celebrate the gutsy callQuoted at the top of the page.

Tulane’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Memphis -6.5), at 36% for Tulane (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Tulane or Memphis flair (86 and 53); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tulane’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Tulane scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Memphis on 3 of its 15.

Tulane’s drives are teal, Memphis’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Memphis’s side

Memphis’s best moment: Stokes 76-yd TD pass to Burnside, Memphis goes ahead 10-3 (Q2 14:08). It lifted Memphis’s win chance by 23 points.

How Memphis fans took it: “Holy Christ. Bench stokes for the season after this.” r/CFB game thread

“It was 10-3 with 4 minutes in the half btw”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

The winner fell to 11%.

What it cost

Memphis’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Memphis · lost4% → ▼1%

Tulane · won0% → ▲1%

Win the conference

Memphis · lost30% → ▼21%

Tulane · won3% → ▲5%

Before the game (October 15, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Memphis plays vs East Carolina on Thu Oct 22 with a 1% chance to make the playoff. Tulane plays vs UTSA on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Tulane 31, Memphis 17

Tulane covered +6.5 by 20.5. The total, 48, stayed under 55.5.

Team totals	Memphis	Tulane
Total yards	488	325
Passing	20 of 37, 306 yds	12 of 22, 175 yds
Rushing	44 for 182 yds	38 for 150 yds
First downs	27	12
Third down	2 of 11	4 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 2	1 of 1
Turnovers	6	2
Penalties	3 for 12 yds	9 for 80 yds
Time of possession	29:12	30:48

Memphis leaders

Passing Marcus Stokes 20 of 37, 306 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
Rushing Jaylin Carter 23 for 135 yds; Marcus Stokes 15 for 18 yds
Receiving Braylon Burnside 7 for 151 yds, 1 TD; Jemyri Davis 4 for 89 yds, 1 TD

Tulane leaders

Passing Trace Johnson 11 of 21, 165 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Johnnie Daniels 7 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Maurice Turner 11 for 38 yds
Receiving Destyn Hill 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Brown 3 for 41 yds

No rain through the game

80° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Yulman Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 0:00 left8:15 p.m.

Memphis 10, Tulane 23 · Tulane 81% to win

no rain · 74°

Stokes intercepted by Smith at the TLN24 and returned for a TD, Tulane leads 23-10

Measured at New Orleans/lakefro airport, 8.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Memphis · 5-1

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 56th now, up 44 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 38-13 vs UAB #88 of 668

won by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 59-8 @ Charlotte #204 of 668

won by 51 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 45-21 vs UT Martin #185 of 668

won by 24 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 20-38 @ Boise StateTop 25 #31 of 668

lost by 18 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 42-24 vs Arkansas State #161 of 668

won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 27-21 @ UNLV #91 of 668

won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

Last three games

Tulane · 2-3

Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 91st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-20 @ Army #50 of 668

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 24-21 vs Southern Miss #87 of 668

won by 3 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 20-31 @ Kansas State #26 of 668

lost by 11 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 28-24 vs South Alabama #64 of 668

won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 3-17 @ DukeTop 25 #65 of 668

lost by 14 as a 9.5-point underdog

Week by week

Tulane

Wk 1Lat Duke3-17
Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31
Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
Wk 6Lat Army17-20

Memphis

Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8
Wk 6Wvs UAB38-13

Power rating by week

Memphis is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against Memphis, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Tulane’s explosive plays against Memphis’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Memphis defense, 13th
Tulane’s success rate against Memphis’s defense
Tulane offense, 2nd percentile · Memphis defense, 68th
Tulane’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense
Tulane offense, 25th percentile · Memphis defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MemphisTulane

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Memphis leads the series 25-16-1

42 meetings since 1954 · Tulane won the last meeting

2025Tulane 38-32
2024Memphis 34-24
2023Tulane 31-21
2022Tulane 38-28
2021Memphis 33-28

Each line is Tulane’s chance to win through that meeting. Tulane is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Memphis favored by 6.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Memphis by 6.5, on the usual path until Q2 0:00

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Tulane.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Tulane is worth +6.1 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.

70% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (35-15 home, 25-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.9 at home vs. away over 106 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 358 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Memphis 34, Tulane 24Nov 28, 2024

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2018.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Tulane11th0-1
Memphis3rd2-0

Full American Athletic standings

Tulane upsets Memphis 31-17