Memphis beats UAB 38-13

Team pages: UAB · Memphis

UAB3-313
Memphis5-138Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn. · Crowd 30,322ESPN2

Memphis beat UAB 38-13.

We had Memphis favored. It won.

Next: UAB beat East Carolina 30-17, Thu Oct 15

Next: Memphis lost to Tulane 31-17, Fri Oct 16

Top comment in the game thread

Need to keep that energy for the rest of the game

Q2 0:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.

Favored the whole way: Memphis never fell below 65%.

UAB never had better than a 34% chance.

FinalMemphis 38-13 UABMemphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q474% at halfMemphisWon38-13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q474% at halfMemphisWon38-13Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q426% at halfUABMemphisLowest 0%Lost13-38Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q426% at halfUABMemphisLowest 0%Lost13-38Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 1:57A lineman failed to fall on a fumble.OL guy, fall on the ball.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 0:15UAB fans celebrate holding a halftime lead after Memphis puntsQuoted at the top of the page.
Memphis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Memphis -15.5), at 89% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Memphis’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:49Simpkins 11-yd TD runUAB goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:49 · Memphis 0, UAB 7▼8%Memphis’s chance to win, 83% to 75%▼8%Memphis’s chance to win, 83% to 75%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 8:03Carter 14-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 8:03 · Memphis 7, UAB 7▲4%Memphis’s chance to win, 82% to 86%▲4%Memphis’s chance to win, 82% to 86%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 1:57Burton run for a 1-yd lossfumblesQ1, 1:57 · Memphis 7, UAB 77-7score after the play7-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 13:36Burton intercepted by Smith at the Memphis 44returned 21 yardsQ2, 13:36 · Memphis 7, UAB 7▲3%Memphis’s chance to win, 85% to 88%▲3%Memphis’s chance to win, 85% to 88%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 9:33Carter 24-yd TD runMemphis goes ahead 17-13Q3, 9:33 · Memphis 17, UAB 13▲8%Memphis’s chance to win, 79% to 87%▲8%Memphis’s chance to win, 79% to 87%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 6:07Stokes 45-yd TD pass to ChapmanMemphis leads 24-13Q3, 6:07 · Memphis 24, UAB 13▲5%Memphis’s chance to win, 91% to 96%▲5%Memphis’s chance to win, 91% to 96%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 3:17Burton sacked for a 5-yd lossQ3, 3:17 · Memphis 24, UAB 1324-13score after the play24-13score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 14:14Robinson 2-yd runfumblesQ4, 14:14 · Memphis 24, UAB 13▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 10:22Tipton 1-yd TD run; unsportsmanlike conduct on MemphisMemphis leads 31-13Q4, 10:22 · Memphis 31, UAB 13▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q4, 5:04Stokes 11-yd TD pass to O'CallaghanMemphis leads 38-13Q4, 5:04 · Memphis 38, UAB 1338-13score after the play38-13score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Memphis scored on 6 of its 12 drives; UAB on 3 of its 13.

Memphis’s drives are teal, UAB’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UAB: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 8FumbleMemphis: Punt, from 92 yards out to 76PuntUAB: Interception, from 72 yards out to 53InterceptionQ2Memphis: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 15Field goalUAB: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 31Field goalMemphis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntUAB: Field goal, from 91 yards out to 39Field goalMemphis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUAB: End of half, from 61 yards out to 59End of halfQ3Memphis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntUAB: Punt, from 72 yards out to 52PuntMemphis: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntMemphis: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 35Missed FGMemphis: Punt, from 65 yards out to 54PuntQ4UAB: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 72FumbleMemphis: Touchdown, from 28 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Turned over on downs, from 69 yards out to 47DownsMemphis: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMemphis: Punt, from 83 yards out to 74PuntUAB: Turned over on downs, from 59 yards out to 60Downs
“Ok. Offense gotta wake up.”
A UAB fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

Fans had the most to say in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

FirstSecondThirdFourthMemphis fansUAB fans

What it cost

Memphis’s chance to make the playoff rose from 3% to 4%.

Make the playoff

UAB · lost0% → 0%
Memphis · won3% → ▲4%

Win the conference

UAB · lost4% → ▼2%
Memphis · won23% → ▲28%23%▲ 28%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Memphis 38, UAB 13

Memphis covered −15.5 by 9.5. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.

UABMemphisTotal yardsUAB 310Memphis 394310394Passing yardsUAB 131Memphis 164131164Rushing yardsUAB 179Memphis 230179230First downsUAB 20Memphis 242024TurnoversUAB 3Memphis 030Time of possessionUAB 33:42Memphis 26:1833:4226:18
Team totalsUABMemphis
Total yards310394
Passing10 of 22, 131 yds11 of 21, 164 yds
Rushing49 for 179 yds46 for 230 yds
First downs2024
Third down3 of 157 of 14
Fourth down0 of 20 of 0
Turnovers30
Penalties3 for 28 yds7 for 74 yds
Time of possession33:4226:18

UAB leaders

  • Passing Ryder Burton 10 of 20, 131 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Roderick Robinson II 19 for 65 yds; Braylon McReynolds 9 for 56 yds
  • Receiving Tiaquelin Mims 3 for 79 yds; AJ Johnson 2 for 24 yds

Memphis leaders

  • Passing Marcus Stokes 11 of 21, 164 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jaylin Carter 19 for 132 yds, 2 TD; Manny Covey 11 for 47 yds
  • Receiving Tychaun Chapman 2 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Braylon Burnside 3 for 47 yds

No rain through the game

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredUAB favored100%Win chanceMemphisRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredUAB favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left6:11 p.m.
UAB 0, Memphis 0 · Memphis 89% to win
no rain · 74°
Robinson 2-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UAB · 3-2

Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 69th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Navy as a 6.5-point underdog.

W 33-14 vs Samford #217 of 668

won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite

UAB won 33-14 vs Samford. Chance to win started at 99%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 24-20 vs Navy #79 of 668

won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog

UAB won 24-20 vs Navy. Chance to win started at 35%, low 19%, high better than 99%.

L 14-21 @ Louisiana #34 of 668

lost by 7 as a 7-point underdog

UAB lost 14-21 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 32%.

W 26-20 vs UL Monroe #161 of 668

won by 6 as a 9.5-point favorite

UAB won 26-20 vs UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 78%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

L 23-42 @ Illinois #68 of 668

lost by 19 as a 25.5-point underdog

UAB lost 23-42 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 6%.

Last three games

Memphis · 4-1

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 77th now, up 23 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 59-8 @ Charlotte #204 of 668

won by 51 as an 18.5-point favorite

Memphis won 59-8 at Charlotte. Chance to win started at 86%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

W 45-21 vs UT Martin #185 of 668

won by 24 as a 33.5-point favorite

Memphis won 45-21 vs UT Martin. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 20-38 @ Boise StateTop 25 #31 of 668

lost by 18 as a 9.5-point underdog

Memphis lost 20-38 at Boise State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 79%.

W 42-24 vs Arkansas State #161 of 668

won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite

Memphis won 42-24 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 81%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 @ UNLV #91 of 668

won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

Memphis won 27-21 at UNLV. Chance to win started at 30%, low 15%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Memphis

Wk 1: W 27-21 at UNLV▲6UNLVWk 1: W 42-24 vs Arkansas State▲18A. St.Wk 2: L 20-38 at Boise State▼18Boise St.Wk 3: W 45-21 vs UT Martin▲24UT MartinWk 5: W 59-8 at Charlotte▲51Charlotte
  • Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
  • Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
  • Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
  • Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
  • Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8

UAB

Wk 1: L 23-42 at Illinois▼19IllinoisWk 2: W 26-20 vs UL Monroe▲6UL MonroeWk 3: L 14-21 at Louisiana▼7LouisianaWk 4: W 24-20 vs Navy▲4NavyWk 5: W 33-14 vs Samford▲19Samford
  • Wk 1Lat Illinois23-42
  • Wk 2Wvs UL Monroe26-20
  • Wk 3Lat Louisiana14-21
  • Wk 4Wvs Navy24-20
  • Wk 5Wvs Samford33-14

Power rating by week

UAB is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

40-4Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5MemphisUAB

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UAB’s passing EPA against Memphis, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UAB’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense

    73 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UAB offense, 6th percentile · Memphis defense, 79th

  2. Memphis’s success rate against UAB’s defense

    61 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Memphis offense, 79th percentile · UAB defense, 18th

  3. UAB’s explosive plays against Memphis’s defense

    18 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UAB offense, 31st percentile · Memphis defense, 13th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UABMemphis
EPA/play, offense
UAB · 16Memphis · 69
EPA/play, defense
UAB · 61Memphis · 53
Success rate, offense
UAB · 40Memphis · 79
Success rate, defense
UAB · 18Memphis · 68
Explosive-play rate, offense
UAB · 31Memphis · 82
Explosive-play rate, defense
UAB · 95Memphis · 13
Rush EPA, offense
UAB · 37Memphis · 63
Rush EPA, defense
UAB · 27Memphis · 21
Pass EPA, offense
UAB · 6Memphis · 90
Pass EPA, defense
UAB · 84Memphis · 79

The series

UAB leads the series 11-7

18 meetings since 1997 · UAB won the last meeting

Memphis wonUAB won1997: Memphis by 211999: Memphis by 242000: UAB by 42001: UAB by 32002: UAB by 142003: UAB by 142004: UAB by 72005: UAB by 172006: UAB by 62007: Memphis by 162008: Memphis by 32009: UAB by 102010: UAB by 162011: UAB by 62012: Memphis by 372023: Memphis by 242024: Memphis by 352025: UAB by 719972025
  • 2025UAB 31-24Memphis lost 24-31 at UAB. Chance to win started at 91%, low 3%, high 93%.
  • 2024Memphis 53-18Memphis won 53-18 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 90%, low 89%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Memphis 45-21Memphis won 45-21 at UAB. Chance to win started at 61%, low 54%, high better than 99%.
  • 2012Memphis 46-9
  • 2011UAB 41-35

Each line is Memphis’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 57%
  • Line · 89%
  • Memphis fans · 96th
  • UAB fans · 74th

Memphis favored by 15.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Memphis by 15.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Memphis.

opened −14now −15.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 57.5now 55.5

Spread: −14 → −15.5 · Total: 57.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Memphis is worth +3.2 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-9 home, 24-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 212 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full American Athletic standings