Memphis beats UT Martin 45-21

UT Martin1-321
Memphis3-145Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn. · Crowd 30,840ESPN+

Memphis beat UT Martin 45-21.

We had Memphis favored. It won.

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 33.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Memphis led by 10 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+24+24

Favored the whole way: Memphis never fell below 97%.

UT Martin never had better than a 2% chance.

FinalMemphis 45-21 UT MartinMemphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MemphisWon45-21Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MemphisWon45-21Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MemphisLowest 0%Lost21-45Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MemphisLowest 0%Lost21-45Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Memphis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Memphis -33.5), at 98% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Memphis scored on 7 of its 9 drives; UT Martin on 3 of its 10.

Memphis’s drives are teal, UT Martin’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UT Martin: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 41DownsMemphis: Field goal, from 59 yards out to 12Field goalUT Martin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntMemphis: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Martin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2UT Martin: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Martin: End of half, from 75 yards out to 75End of halfQ3Memphis: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Martin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 46PuntMemphis: Turned over on downs, from 85 yards out to 16DownsUT Martin: Punt, from 84 yards out to 67PuntMemphis: Interception, from 67 yards out to 49InterceptionQ4UT Martin: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Martin: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUT Martin: End of game, from 75 yards out to 71End of game

Box score

Memphis 45, UT Martin 21

UT Martin covered +33.5 by 9.5. The total, 66, went over 58.5.

UT MartinMemphisTotal yardsUT Martin 291Memphis 572291572Passing yardsUT Martin 177Memphis 273177273Rushing yardsUT Martin 114Memphis 299114299First downsUT Martin 14Memphis 281428TurnoversUT Martin 0Memphis 101Time of possessionUT Martin 28:46Memphis 31:1428:4631:14
Team totalsUT MartinMemphis
Total yards291572
Passing17 of 29, 177 yds28 of 35, 273 yds
Rushing28 for 114 yds40 for 299 yds
First downs1428
Third down7 of 139 of 13
Fourth down0 of 11 of 2
Turnovers01
Penalties8 for 50 yds3 for 15 yds
Time of possession28:4631:14

UT Martin leaders

  • Passing Tate Surber 17 of 29, 177 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jaydon Peete 6 for 38 yds; Thomas Ansley 10 for 34 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Deuce Oliver 4 for 69 yds; Makhia Sherrard 4 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Memphis leaders

  • Passing Marcus Stokes 26 of 32, 258 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Jordan Thompson 6 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Dallan Hayden 11 for 85 yds
  • Receiving Jermane Hayes 8 for 57 yds; Jemyri Davis 3 for 45 yds

No rain and calm

96° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 12

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 77 other games played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 78°, with about 7 in 10 games between 70° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredUT Martin favored100%Win chanceMemphisRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°105°feels like 88°air 86°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredUT Martin favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F80°105°feels like 88°air 86°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left6:05 p.m.
UT Martin 0, Memphis 0 · Memphis 98% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the west-southwest · 96°
Surber 16-yd pass to Sherrard
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UT Martin · 1-2

Rated 148th in our preseason ratings, 171st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 42-7 vs Chicago State #255 of 668

won by 35 as a 45.5-point favorite

UT Martin won 42-7 vs Chicago State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 24-36 vs Central Arkansas #177 of 668

lost by 12 as a 3-point favorite

UT Martin lost 24-36 vs Central Arkansas. Chance to win started at 67%, low 2%, high 78%.

Last three games

Memphis · 2-1

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 91st now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over UNLV as a 4.5-point underdog.

Week by week

Memphis

Wk 1: W 27-21 at UNLV▲6UNLVWk 1: W 42-24 vs Arkansas State▲18Arkansas StateWk 2: L 20-38 at Boise State▼18Boise State
  • Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
  • Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
  • Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38

UT Martin

Wk 1: L 24-36 vs Central Arkansas▼12Central ArkansasWk 1: W 42-7 vs Chicago State▲35Chicago StateWk 2: L 7-52 at West Virginia▼45West Virginia
  • Wk 1Lvs Central Arkansas24-36
  • Wk 1Wvs Chicago State42-7
  • Wk 2Lat West Virginia7-52

Power rating by week

Memphis is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-5-8Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2MemphisUT Martin

The series

Memphis leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2009 · Memphis won the last meeting

  • 2013Memphis 21-6
  • 2012UT Martin 20-17
  • 2009Memphis 41-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Memphis’s chances here.

50-50Model · 85%Line · 100%UT MartinMemphis

Memphis favored by 33.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Memphis by 33.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward UT Martin.

opened −34.5now −33.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 57.5now 58.5

Spread: −34.5 → −33.5 · Total: 57.5 → 58.5

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.

UT Martin at Memphis · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis

  • 92°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 69weather score, Rough
  • 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 79, against 69 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 47, Harsh
  • 11:45 am: 44, Harsh
  • 1 pm: 43, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 43, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 46, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 69, Rough (this game)
  • 6:30 pm: 77, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 79, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Memphis is worth +3.2 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-9 home, 24-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 105 miles to get here.

Where next