Memphis 27-21 UNLV (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Memphis · UNLV

Memphis1-027

UNLV0-121Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. · Crowd 31,384

Memphis beat UNLV 27-21.

We had UNLV favored. Memphis won.

Next: Memphis beat Arkansas State 42-24, Sat Sep 5

Next: UNLV beat Hawai'i 21-6, Sat Sep 5

Top comment in the game thread

Arkansas did Memphis a favor by grabbing Silverfield. I think they upgraded at head coach

Q4 0:19 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

The turning point: Stokes 48-yd TD pass to Burnside, ties it 14-14 (Q3, 13:07). Memphis went from 19% to 36% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.

Down to a 15% chance in the second quarter, Memphis still won.

Up to an 85% chance in the second quarter, UNLV still lost.

FinalMemphis 27-21 UNLVMemphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 13:07Stokes 48-yd TD pass to Burnside, ties it 14-14Memphis 19% → 36% (+17)
2Q3 8:38Carter 36-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Memphis 21% → 36% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 13:07Stokes 48-yd TD pass to Burnside, ties it 14-14UNLV 81% → 64% (−17)
2Q3 8:38Carter 36-yd TD run, ties it 21-21UNLV 79% → 64% (−15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 8:14Jackson Arnold throws a 38-yard touchdown pass to T. McNair for UNLVThis Arnold kid can sling it. Bet he could play in the SEC.r/CFB game threadI think I love Jackson Arnold. 🥰🫡🫪r/CFB game thread
Q2 5:24Memphis coach Huff argues a penalty as Stokes throws a touchdown passMemphis HC going to give himself a coronary.r/CFB game threadCharles Huff losing his mind.r/CFB game thread
Q4 6:08Fans rip Mullen's 4th down call as Arnold is sacked for turnoverArnold is just eating these hits like he’s selling a Stone Cold Stunnerr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:43Fans criticize Jackson Arnold and the UNLV offensive line for allowing sacksA 12% sack rate is wild, Arnold.r/CFB game threadThis is the Jackson Arnold that I am familiar with.r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:19Memphis sacks UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold three times in the final minuteQuoted at the top of the page.Memphis coach just got Stone Cold stunned lolr/CFB game thread

Memphis’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UNLV -4.5), at 30% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UNLV or Memphis flair (82 and 78); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Memphis’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Memphis scored on 5 of its 12 drives; UNLV on 3 of its 13.

Memphis’s drives are teal, UNLV’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Geez it’d be nice if we could play Arnold every week we might break the sack record”

A Memphis fan

When fans got loud

Busy

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

The winner fell to 12%.

Box score

Memphis 27, UNLV 21

Memphis covered +4.5 by 10.5. The total, 48, stayed under 55.5.

Team totals	Memphis	UNLV
Total yards	418	460
Passing	15 of 26, 223 yds	25 of 38, 291 yds
Rushing	34 for 195 yds	41 for 169 yds
First downs	20	23
Third down	3 of 11	3 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 0	2 of 5
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	7 for 70 yds	7 for 75 yds
Time of possession	24:51	35:09

Memphis leaders

Passing Marcus Stokes 15 of 26, 223 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jaylin Carter 15 for 97 yds, 1 TD; Manny Covey 11 for 46 yds
Receiving Jemyri Davis 3 for 62 yds; Braylon Burnside 1 for 48 yds, 1 TD

UNLV leaders

Passing Jackson Arnold 25 of 37, 291 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jackson Arnold 21 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Jaylon Glover 5 for 49 yds
Receiving Jai'Den Thomas 6 for 54 yds; Kayden McGee 3 for 48 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Memphis · 8-5

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings.

L 7-31 @ NC State #37 of 667

lost by 24 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 17-28 vs NavyTop 25 #73 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 27-31 @ East Carolina #45 of 667

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 32-38 vs TulaneTop 25 #58 of 667

lost by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 38-14 @ Rice #163 of 667

won by 24 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 34-31 vs South FloridaTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 24-31 @ UAB #137 of 667

lost by 7 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 45-7 vs Tulsa #152 of 667

won by 38 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 55-26 @ Florida Atlantic #97 of 667

won by 29 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 32-31 vs Arkansas #19 of 667

won by 1 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 28-7 @ Troy #89 of 667

won by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 38-16 @ Georgia State #102 of 667

won by 22 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 45-10 vs Chattanooga #174 of 667

won by 35 as a 30.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

UNLV · 10-4

Rated 91st in our preseason ratings.

L 10-17 @ Ohio #66 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 21-38 @ Boise StateTop 25 #45 of 667

lost by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 42-17 @ Nevada #184 of 667

won by 25 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 38-10 vs Hawai'i #123 of 667

won by 28 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 29-26 vs Utah State #105 of 667

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 42-10 @ Colorado State #186 of 667

won by 32 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 35-40 vs New Mexico #90 of 667

lost by 5 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 31-56 @ Boise StateTop 25 #35 of 667

lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 51-48 vs Air Force #138 of 667

won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 31-17 @ Wyoming #130 of 667

won by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 41-38 @ Miami (OH) #79 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 30-23 vs UCLA #46 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 38-21 @ Sam Houston #130 of 667

won by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 38-31 vs Idaho State #213 of 667

won by 7 as a 30.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UNLV’s explosive plays against Memphis, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UNLV’s explosive plays against Memphis’s defense
UNLV offense, 69th percentile · Memphis defense, 13th
UNLV’s success rate against Memphis’s defense
UNLV offense, 13th percentile · Memphis defense, 68th
UNLV’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense
UNLV offense, 40th percentile · Memphis defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MemphisUNLV

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Memphis fans are in a better mood than UNLV fans (88th vs 65th among FBS fanbases), even with UNLV favored.

UNLV favored by 4.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

UNLV by 4.5, on the usual path until 6:08 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward UNLV.

The total fell 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UNLV is worth +1.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.

48% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (20-22 home, 20-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,414 miles to get here.

Memphis beats UNLV 27-21