UNLV10-42Dan Mullen begins his first season at UNLV with a 10-4 record under Barry Odom, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program navigates its evolving identity in Las Vegas.
UNLV is the desert program that spent decades as a punchline and is now the best team in the Mountain West that can't win the Mountain West — three straight title-game losses to Boise State, all in the brightest lights in college football.
Rebels fans are tired of being treated as a novelty act — the casino-town team nobody took seriously. They'll tell you UNLV has been one of the best stories in the Group of Five for three years runnin…
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · vs Memphis · Sun Aug 30 · 02:00 UTC
UNLV is the Mountain West program whose 2024 11-3 + Mountain West championship game under Barry Odom + Allegiant Stadium NFL-stadium-shared identity define what Las-Vegas-football looks like.
With a recruiting rank of #63 and a returning player percentage of 15%, UNLV's roster is heavily reliant on transfers. The team has experienced equal numbers of incoming and outgoing transfers, indicating a balanced but volatile approach to reloading.
Hey Reb is patient.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Mullen begins his first season with just 15% production returning, inheriting a roster stripped bare after Odom's 10-4 breakout — this isn't rebuilding, it's starting over.
Jackson Arnold (QB) arrives at UNLV as the headline addition in a top-5 Mountain West portal class — Mullen's first full roster rebuild starts with zero returning QB production.
Jaylon Glover sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
Troy Omeire is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Dan Mullen begins at UNLV with a 10-4 record under Barry Odom, but the coordinator change and uneasy fan belief signal early challenges in reshaping the program's identity.
UNLV dropped 21 spots in SP+ — the 10-4 record and #51 talent rank contrast with bottom-quintile returning production, raising questions about sustainability under Dan Mullen’s first season.
Dan Mullen begins his first season at UNLV with a 10-4 record under Barry Odom, but the fanbase remains uneasy as the program navigates its evolving identity in Las Vegas.
UNLV QB competition ongoing
Mullen inherited a QB room with no clear answer and a fanbase expecting a winner — fall camp battle is the whole offseason story in one depth chart spot.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
UNLV · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Dan Mullen took over as UNLV's head coach, replacing Barry Odom. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
UNLV signed a top-25 transfer-portal class — 40 additions headlined by Anthony Colandrea (QB) from Virginia and Alex Orji (QB) from Michigan. It is the No. 1 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 16 of 373 board posts (4%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (75 posts): 11% positive · 77% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Aug 30
vs Memphis · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 11 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
92 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
12 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 9 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 2 afternoon, 9 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 62% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
8 of 13 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 23% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
13 interceptions of 57 disrupted passes (44 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags haven't favored them: 107 penalties committed vs. 96 drawn on opponents, 53 yards behind.
927 penalty yards committed vs. 874 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 10 corners
The split, staged
How UNLV fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Yeah like I don't think Hawaii gets very much at all from the MW TV deal.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 10 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readUNLV fans are split right down the middle, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 75 posts from UNLV fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 47% believers, 53% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Joel It is insane that Unlv is not on this list. They have better odds to make cfp playoff then 8 of the teams on this list
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 27, 2026 · via The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · UNLV · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.33 EPA/play | 10 | 14 | 275 / 417 | 65.9 | 3459 #17 FBS | 8.3 | 23 #32 FBS | 9 | 149.5 | 68.0 | 7.6 | 5.2 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage23.3% 54th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.1 90th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 87th percentile among FBS QBs, up from the 36th | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Back · +0.15 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 148 | 1034 #37 FBS | 7.0 | 12 #30 FBS | 70 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 13.2% (49/371) | |
Yards by week → Complete BackThreatens defenses in every dimension — rushing, receiving, third-down. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 3 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.0 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.1% 93th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 80th to 95th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.13 EPA/play | 2 | 14 | 100 | 440 | 4.4 | 6 | 22 | 17.2 | 9.9 | 21.1 | 11.6 | 5.9% (22/371) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight225 lb 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keyvone Lee's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.02 EPA/play | 20 | 13 | 64 | 384 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 17.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.0 94th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.6% bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylon Glover's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 6 | 14 | 58 | 931 #33 FBS | 16.1 | 4 | 56 | 13 | 11.6 | 25.9% (96/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.8 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume58 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 90th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 5th | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.90 EPA/play | — | 13 | 32 | 521 | 16.3 | 5 | 68 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 9.4% (35/371) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.6% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Troy Omeire's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.80 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 33 | 471 | 14.3 | 5 | 86 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 10.5% (39/371) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.2% 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 59th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 11th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 11 | 13 | 22 | 258 | 11.7 | 0 | 37 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 7.5% (28/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.6 54th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View JoJo Earle's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.21 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 15 | 234 | 15.6 | 3 | 72 | 4 | 3.7 | 4.9% (18/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.8 bottom 19th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Taeshaun Lyons's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 18 | 188 | 10.4 | 1 | 60 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 7.0% (26/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View DeAngelo Irvin Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.49 EPA/play | 30 | 6 | 11 | 168 | 15.3 | 3 | 27 | 2.9 | 2.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 75th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.5 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Var'Keyes Gumms's full player page | |||||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.81 EPA/play | 84 | 9 | 12 | 145 | 12.1 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 3.6 | — | |
Yards by week → Red-Zone WeaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. 12 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate16.7% 83th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 80th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nick Elksnis's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.73 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 12 | 120 | 10 | 0 | 22 | 2.4 | 4.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.7 bottom 32th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Koy Moore's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 30 | 13 | 48 | 19 | 7.5 | 6 #74 FBS | 6 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 13th to 90th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 13 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 55 | 13 | 27 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.0% bottom 43th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 5th percentile to the 72nd among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.2% 64th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 35th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 14th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 17 | 10 | 17 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2020 class View Ose Egbase's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 18 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.2% 68th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Landen Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| 44 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 14 | 112 | 55 | 57 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume112 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.9% bottom 27th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 93rd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 62nd | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 15 | 13 | 61 | 27 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 54 | 12 | 46 | 21 | 25 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 bottom 43th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.3% bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah Patterson's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 1 | 14 | 29 | 12 | 17 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.0% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 16th to 48th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 43 | 11 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 11th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| 20 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 91 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 14 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume80 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jake Pope's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 3 | 13 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume73 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 46th percentile to the 86th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 14 | 63 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.9% bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Andrew Powdrell's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 9 | 11 | 43 | 7 | 4 #23 FBS | 5 | 3.5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.3% 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aamaris Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 13 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.1% 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tre Fulton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2025 class View Mumu Bin-Wahad's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 12 | 24 | 2 | 5 #6 FBS | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Laterrance Welch's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 32 | 14 | 15/20 | 75 | 58/58 | 103 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 33 | 14 | 46 | 2015 | 43.8 | 71 | 17 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.02 EPA/play | 20 | 13 | 16 | 312 | 19.5 | 0 | 30 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 6 | 14 | 5 | 106 | 21.2 | 0 | 34 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 | 12 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+22 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #87 | #235 | -30.5 | Idaho State | W 38–31 145 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Aug 30 | #87 | #122 | -9 | Sam Houston (N) | W 38–21 126 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #100 | #70 | +2.5 | UCLA | W 30–23 122 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #101 | #40 | -1.5 | @Miami (OH) | W 41–38 138 | 4-0 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #79 | #106 | -4.5 | @Wyoming | W 31–17 130 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #74 | #94 | -7.5 | Air Force | W 51–48 143 | 6-0 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #78 | #32 | +13.5 | @Boise State | L 31–56 127 | 6-1 | 2-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #93 | #109 | -3.5 | New Mexico | L 35–40 131 | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #119 | #143 | -4.5 | @Colorado State | W 42–10 128 | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #87 | #111 | -5 | Utah State | W 29–26 149 | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #89 | #75 | -2.5 | Hawai'i | W 38–10 117 | 9-2 | 3-1 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #66 | #149 | -7.5 | @Nevada | W 42–17 122 | 10-2 | 4-1 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #53 | #42 | +3.5 | @Boise State | L 21–38 141 | 10-3 | 4-1 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 24 | #63 | #66 | -6 | Ohio (N) | L 10–17 | 10-4 | 4-1 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | Ohio | L 10–17 | — | — | — | +0.064 | 40.7% | 121.4% | One-score loss |
| Dec 6 | @Boise State | L 21–38 | 409 | 1 | 28:40 | +0.167 | 39.7% | 139.9% | |
| Nov 30 | @Nevada | W 42–17 | 496 | 2 | 27:09 | +0.638 | 52.6% | 178.9% | |
| Nov 22 | Hawai'i | W 38–10 | 470 | 1 | 35:02 | +0.364 | 62.3% | 95.6% | Best success rate |
| Nov 16 | Utah State | W 29–26 | 422 | 1 | 32:15 | +0.280 | 42.5% | 147.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 9 | @Colorado State | W 42–10 | 571 | 1 | 33:09 | +0.531 | 46.3% | 188.2% | Most explosive |
| Nov 1 | New Mexico | L 35–40 | 474 | 3 | 32:30 | +0.203 | 38.5% | 143.7% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Boise State | L 31–56 | 476 | 1 | 32:07 | +0.059 | 41.4% | 151.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Air Force | W 51–48 | 597 | 0 | 23:09 | +0.641 | 54.4% | 164.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Wyoming | W 31–17 | 256 | 1 | 30:22 | +0.150 | 42.4% | 97.2% | |
| Sep 20 | @Miami (OH) | W 41–38 | 513 | 2 | 38:08 | +0.229 | 46.2% | 121.0% | One-score win |
| Sep 7 | UCLA | W 30–23 | 354 | 0 | 28:34 | +0.338 | 51.0% | 118.4% | One-score win |
| Aug 30 | Sam Houston | W 38–21 | 404 | 1 | 29:42 | +0.354 | 49.1% | 139.6% | |
| Aug 23 | Idaho State | W 38–31 | 532 | 1 | 31:12 | +0.279 | 50.0% | 107.8% | One-score win |
| Season average (14 games) | 460 | 1.2 | +0.307 | 46.9% | 136.7% | ||||
UNLV fields an elite offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
88th percentile quality, 9th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 95th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 95th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
78th percentile success on standard downs, 85th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 84th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 95th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.31; 96th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.10. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.32 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
UNLV reads strongest in rushing epa (top 6%) and epa / play (top 10%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where UNLV sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · UNLV
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · UNLV · 2018-present
52% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +7.6 better at home. Allegiant Stadium seats 65,000, averaging 42% full (27,554 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jai'Den Thomas and Keyvone Lee split the carries (145/242 vs 97/242) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jai'Den Thomas produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Jaden Bradley (WR) and Nick Elksnis (TE) split the targets (95/108 vs 13/108) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, UNLV’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.1% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 160-play sample) — mid-pack, 71 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
79°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 33 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
UNLV's 2014–2025 record is 59-86. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1970 · 55 seasons · .390 win rate
UNLV plays its home games in a $2 billion NFL stadium on the Las Vegas Strip, went 10-3 in 2025, and lost the Mountain West championship game to Boise State for the third year in a row. The Rebels are the best team in the conference that can't win the conference.
The transformation is recent and real. Barry Odom took a program with one of the worst records in the FBS and in 2023 turned it into a nine-win Mountain West co-champion, playing in front of Raiders-caliber infrastructure at Allegiant Stadium. Dan Mullen arrived in 2024 and kept climbing — double-digit wins, back-to-back title-game appearances, and QB Anthony Colandrea named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in 2025. Three years ago UNLV was a punchline. Now it is the standard the rest of the conference is trying to beat.
The problem is that Boise State keeps winning the last game. Three straight Mountain West championship losses to the Broncos is a specific kind of frustration — not the frustration of a program not good enough to get there, but of a program good enough to get there and not good enough to close it. The fan debate in Las Vegas has a clean shape: the faction that says three title-game trips in three years proves UNLV has arrived, against the faction that says it isn't real until Boise State is finally beaten.
The 2026 question is whether Mullen has closed the gap enough to take the last step. Colandrea returns. The offense is designed to entertain. Allegiant Stadium is, by any objective measure, the most spectacular venue in Group-of-Five football. What's left is the championship.
UNLV runs a high-scoring, pace-up spread offense that fits the city — entertainment-first, built for the big play, with Colandrea operating a system that generates yards in chunks rather than grinding possessions. Dan Mullen's scheme leans on fast reads, manufactured matchups, and an aggressive shot chart; the defense has improved enough to make the offense's advantages add up to wins. The Rebels are not built to play slow, and the Allegiant crowd rewards them for it.
UNLV 2016–2025. Climbing +1.4 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.30 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-4
UNLV: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
UNLV sits at the top of the Mountain West at 4-1. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · UNLV
Dan Mullen in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2020
UNLV plays home games at Allegiant Stadium — the Las Vegas Raiders' NFL stadium. The 65,000 capacity + dome roof + Las Vegas Strip proximity + Raiders co-tenancy create a venue distinct from any other G5 program. The shared identity + the Vegas-NFL atmosphere give UNLV a venue advantage unmatched in the Mountain West.
since 2023
Barry Odom's 2023 9-5 + LA Bowl appearance reset the program. His 2023 hire (post-Arkansas DC) was unconventional + immediately productive. The 2024 11-3 + Mountain West championship game appearance under Dan Mullen continued the trajectory. The Las Vegas market + NIL infrastructure + UNLV institutional positioning drive the modern era.
since 1968
UNLV's Las Vegas Strip proximity + the Sahara Avenue campus + the casino-corridor cultural overlap + the Mountain West regional positioning create a unique CFB venue identity. The Vegas-as-CFB-destination angle drives recruiting + visiting-team-experience + NIL infrastructure.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Barry Odom takes a doormat to nine wins and a share of the Mountain West title
2025
A third straight Mountain West championship-game defeat to the Broncos, 38-21
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · UNLV · 2025
Week 8 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 17-10 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2025–20251 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
UNLV · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · UNLV · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · UNLV
Season Standing · 2025 · 10-4
Coaching Era · UNLV
Moment of the Year · UNLV · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline