Air Force beats UNLV 41-31
Air Force beat UNLV 41-31. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. It won.
Next: UNLV vs Northern Illinois, Sat Oct 31 · 10:30 PM ET
Next: Air Force at Wyoming, Fri Oct 23 · 9:00 PM ET · Air Force favored by 5.5
How it swung
The turning point: Arnold 60-yd TD pass to McGee, UNLV goes ahead 7-3 (Q2, 14:52). Air Force went from 66% to 48% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Air Force a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Air Force was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
A tight one: Air Force bottomed out at 44% and won.
UNLV never had better than a 56% chance.
Air Force 41-31 UNLV
Air Force wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UNLV 31-41 Air ForceUNLV lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:52Arnold 60-yd TD pass to McGee, UNLV goes ahead 7-3Air Force 66% → 48% (−18)
- 2Q3 7:28Conti 6-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 20-17Air Force 54% → 70% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:52Arnold 60-yd TD pass to McGee, UNLV goes ahead 7-3UNLV 34% → 52% (+18)
- 2Q3 7:28Conti 6-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 20-17UNLV 46% → 30% (−16)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Air Force -1.5), at 61% for Air Force (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Air Force scored on 7 of its 9 drives; UNLV on 5 of its 9.
Air Force’s drives are teal, UNLV’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UNLV’s side
UNLV’s best moment: Arnold 60-yd TD pass to McGee, UNLV goes ahead 7-3 (Q2 14:52). It lifted UNLV’s win chance by 18 points.
6 lead changes.
What it cost
UNLV’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
UNLV plays vs Northern Illinois on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff. Air Force plays at Wyoming on Fri Oct 23 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Air Force 41, UNLV 31
Air Force covered −1.5 by 8.5. The total, 72, went over 49.5.
| Team totals | UNLV | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 376 | 448 |
| Passing | 21 of 33, 246 yds | 2 of 3, 18 yds |
| Rushing | 32 for 130 yds | 62 for 430 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 25 |
| Third down | 9 of 13 | 4 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 30 yds | 3 for 30 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:47 | 35:13 |
UNLV leaders
- Passing Jackson Arnold 21 of 33, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jackson Arnold 13 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Jai'Den Thomas 17 for 48 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kayden McGee 5 for 99 yds, 2 TD; Troy Stellato 4 for 36 yds
Air Force leaders
- Passing Evan Medders 2 of 3, 18 yds
- Rushing Evan Medders 18 for 152 yds, 3 TD; Rocco Conti 12 for 103 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Simon Kibbee 1 for 18 yds; Matt Long 1 for 0 yds
No rain through the game
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 54°, with about 7 in 10 games between 41° and 67°.
October game-day temperatures at Falcon Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Air Force Academy airport, 2.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UNLV · 4-2
Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 76th now, up 15 spots.
Three straight wins, capped by a 6-point win over North Dakota State as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Air Force · 4-1
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 69th now, up 11 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Air Force
- Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
- Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
- Wk 6Wat Northern Illinois28-7
UNLV
- Wk 1Wat Hawai'i21-6
- Wk 2Lat North Texas6-44
- Wk 4Wat Akron38-10
- Wk 5Wvs California39-31
- Wk 6Wvs North Dakota State13-7
Power rating by week
Air Force is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s passing EPA against UNLV, 83 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · UNLV defense, 83rd
UNLV’s success rate against Air Force’s defense
UNLV offense, 13th percentile · Air Force defense, 74th
Air Force’s explosive plays against UNLV’s defense
Air Force offense, 4th percentile · UNLV defense, 41st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Air Force leads the series 18-8
26 meetings since 1981 · UNLV has won the last 2
- 2025UNLV 51-48
- 2023UNLV 31-27
- 2022Air Force 42-7
- 2021Air Force 48-14
- 2018Air Force 41-35
Each line is Air Force’s chance to win through that meeting. Air Force is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Air Force fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (65th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Air Force favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Air Force by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4.5 points toward Air Force.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +3 → −1.5 · Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Air Force is worth +2.5 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 23rd percentile.
63% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (26-15 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
6,643 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 601 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.