Air Force at Wyoming
Usual during the game: 47°, between 38° and 61° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 7,218 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium32 games since 2016 · How we measure
Air Force (5‑1) travels to Wyoming (4‑3), with Air Force favored by 5.5. Air Force’s offense is at the 4th percentile on explosive plays; Wyoming’s defense is at the 90th.
How they got here
Last three games
Air Force · 5-1
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 65th now, up 15 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Wyoming · 4-3
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 132nd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over San José State as a 4.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s rushing EPA against Wyoming, 89 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s explosive plays against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 4th percentile · Wyoming defense, 90th
Air Force’s rushing EPA against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 99th percentile · Wyoming defense, 10th
Air Force’s success rate against Wyoming’s defense
Air Force offense, 89th percentile · Wyoming defense, 17th
What’s at stake
Air Force
- Air Force needs 1 more win in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 94% with a loss.
- Air Force hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Wyoming
- Wyoming needs 2 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 82% to get there with a win here, 44% with a loss.
- Wyoming is coming off a 18-point win.
The series
Air Force leads the series 32-28-3
63 meetings since 1957 · Air Force won the last meeting
- 2025Air Force 24-21
- 2024Wyoming 31-19
- 2023Air Force 34-27
- 2022Wyoming 17-14
- 2021Air Force 24-14
Each line is Wyoming’s chance to win through that meeting. Wyoming is 3-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Air Force
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcons fans say the talking heads write the academy off every August — too small, too slow, the offense from another century — then act surprised when those cadets out-discipline a more talented roster on a Saturday in Colorado Springs.
Wyoming
The chip · vs the national mediaCowboy fans are tired of being filed under 'cold, remote, forgettable' by people who've never had to play a December night in Laramie. They say the altitude humbles every recruiting-ranking darling who comes to War Memorial thinking it'll be easy.
What this game touches
The 4-8 slip after the Bohl steadiness. Craig Bohl built a decade of bowl trips and toughness, then handed off to Jay Sawvel — and 2025 backslid to 4-8, no bowl, the kind of season that tests whether the program's altitude-and-grit identity still wins games or just describes them.
Best players
Air Force
- Blake Fletcher (LB) · 64 tackles
- Dallas Daley (LB) · 39 tackles
- Liam Szarka (QB) · 391 rushing yards
Wyoming
- Jones Thomas (S) · 50 tackles
- Ethan Stuhlsatz (LB) · 48 tackles
- Gary Rutherford (LB) · 40 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Liam Szarka (QB) — Air Force’s leading rusher (391 rushing yards) takes on Wyoming’s run defense (10th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (42.5 → 44.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Wyoming fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (67th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 58%
- Line · 33%
- Wyoming fans · 67th
- Air Force fans · 20th
Air Force favored by 5.5 · Total 44.5
Air Force by 5.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Air Force’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at War Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 83, 7:30 pm Saturdays 74
Air Force at Wyoming · Friday, Oct. 23 · 9 pm ET · War Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at War Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 83, 3:30 pm 79, 7:30 pm 74.
- noon: 83, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 74, Rough
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Wyoming is worth +4.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-16 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 164 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Wyoming
- Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24
- Wk 4Wvs Hawai'i27-10
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota State0-28
- Wk 6Wat San José State16-13
- Wk 7Wvs Northern Illinois41-23
Air Force
- Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
- Wk 6Wat Northern Illinois28-7
- Wk 7Wvs UNLV41-31
Power rating by week
Air Force is rated 6.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Wyoming.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +5.5 · Total: 42.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Wyoming 17, Air Force 14Sep 16, 2022