Wyoming beats Hawai'i 27-10

Hawai'i1-310
Wyoming2-227Final
Sat, Sep 26 · War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyo. · Crowd 20,999The CW

Wyoming beat Hawai'i 27-10.

We had Hawai'i favored. Wyoming won.

How it swung

The turning point: Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3 (Q2, 3:05). Wyoming went from 64% to 80% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming a 43% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

Wyoming won by 17, after dipping to 40% in the first quarter.

Hawai'i never had better than a 60% chance.

TargetingQ3 3:45
FinalWyoming 27-10 Hawai'iWyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfWyomingHawai'iWon27-1012+11+16ScoresTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfWyomingWon27-1012ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfHawai'iWyomingLost10-2712−11−16ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfWyomingLost10-2712ScoresTargeting

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:00PenaltySpecial teams51-yd punt, Uiliata returns it 9, holding on Hawai'iWyoming 40% → 51% (+11)
  2. 2Q2 3:05Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3Wyoming 64% → 80% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:00PenaltySpecial teams51-yd punt, Uiliata returns it 9, holding on Hawai'iHawai'i 60% → 49% (−11)
  2. 2Q2 3:05Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3Hawai'i 36% → 20% (−16)
Wyoming’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Hawai'i -2.5), at 51% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Wyoming scored on 5 of its 8 drives; Hawai'i on 2 of its 8.

Wyoming’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Wyoming: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalHawai'i: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 10Field goalWyoming: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntHawai'i: Punt, from 92 yards out to 75PuntWyoming: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 5Field goalQ2Hawai'i: Punt, from 93 yards out to 73PuntWyoming: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownHawai'i: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntWyoming: End of half, from 65 yards out to 69End of halfQ3Hawai'i: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 1DownsWyoming: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Hawai'i: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWyoming: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntHawai'i: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 37Missed FGWyoming: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownHawai'i: End of game, from 75 yards out to 19End of game

What it cost

Hawai'i’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.

Win the conference

Hawai'i · lost3% → ▼1%
Wyoming · won1% → 1%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Wyoming 27, Hawai'i 10

Wyoming covered +2.5 by 19.5. The total, 37, stayed under 44.5.

Hawai'iWyomingTotal yardsHawai'i 328Wyoming 387328387Passing yardsHawai'i 226Wyoming 204226204Rushing yardsHawai'i 102Wyoming 183102183First downsHawai'i 22Wyoming 232223TurnoversHawai'i 0Wyoming 000Time of possessionHawai'i 27:57Wyoming 32:0327:5732:03
Team totalsHawai'iWyoming
Total yards328387
Passing28 of 44, 226 yds17 of 23, 204 yds
Rushing23 for 102 yds38 for 183 yds
First downs2223
Third down5 of 146 of 12
Fourth down2 of 40 of 0
Turnovers00
Penalties8 for 60 yds6 for 47 yds
Time of possession27:5732:03

Hawai'i leaders

  • Passing Micah Alejado 28 of 44, 226 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Devon Rice 11 for 75 yds; Cam Barfield 4 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Tama Uiliata 6 for 39 yds; Audric Harris 3 for 32 yds

Wyoming leaders

  • Passing Tyler Hughes 17 of 23, 204 yds
  • Rushing Samuel Harris 11 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Markell Holman 15 for 87 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Deion DeBlanc 3 for 41 yds; Samuel Harris 4 for 36 yds

No rain, gusts to 32 mph

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 16 mph from the west, mostly across the field, gusts to 32

A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 32 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 32 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 58°, with about 7 in 10 games between 44° and 70°.

September game-day temperatures at War Memorial Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wyoming favoredHawai'i favored100%Win chanceWyomingRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph29 mph gust
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wyoming favoredHawai'i favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204029 mph gust

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 10:13 left1:21 p.m.
Hawai'i 0, Wyoming 3 · Wyoming 60% to win
no rain · wind 15 mph from the west-southwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 28 · 74°
Sandvik 28-yd field goal, Wyoming goes ahead 3-0

Jump to

The same game in two conditions

Wind 15 mph or moreLighter wind
Runs and passes6041
Share that were passes53%54%
Yards per play6.55.6
Turnovers00
The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.
How this is countedWind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Laramie/gen. Brees airport, 5.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Hawai'i · 1-2

Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 79th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Wyoming · 1-2

Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Wyoming

Wk 1: L 13-35 at Colorado State▼22Colorado StateWk 2: W 21-13 vs Northern Colorado▲8N. ColoradoWk 3: L 10-24 at Central Michigan▼14Central Michigan
  • Wk 1Lat Colorado State13-35
  • Wk 2Wvs Northern Colorado21-13
  • Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24

Hawai'i

Wk 1: L 27-37 at Stanford▼10StanfordWk 1: L 6-21 vs UNLV▼15UNLVWk 2: W 29-19 vs New Mexico State▲10New Mexico State
  • Wk 1Lat Stanford27-37
  • Wk 1Lvs UNLV6-21
  • Wk 2Wvs New Mexico State29-19

Power rating by week

Hawai'i is rated 4.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-1-6Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3WyomingHawai'i

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Wyoming, 76 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Wyoming’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · Wyoming defense, 89th

  2. Wyoming’s rushing EPA against Hawai'i’s defense

    60 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wyoming offense, 71st percentile · Hawai'i defense, 11th

  3. Wyoming’s success rate against Hawai'i’s defense

    49 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wyoming offense, 65th percentile · Hawai'i defense, 16th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Hawai'iWyoming
EPA/play, offense
Hawai'i · 13Wyoming · 35
EPA/play, defense
Hawai'i · 12Wyoming · 28
Success rate, offense
Hawai'i · 18Wyoming · 65
Success rate, defense
Hawai'i · 16Wyoming · 17
Explosive-play rate, offense
Hawai'i · 13Wyoming · 0
Explosive-play rate, defense
Hawai'i · 65Wyoming · 89
Rush EPA, offense
Hawai'i · 13Wyoming · 71
Rush EPA, defense
Hawai'i · 11Wyoming · 10
Pass EPA, offense
Hawai'i · 14Wyoming · 13
Pass EPA, defense
Hawai'i · 34Wyoming · 53

The series

Wyoming leads the series 17-12

29 meetings since 1978 · Hawai'i won the last meeting

Wyoming wonHawai'i won1978: Hawai'i by 51979: Wyoming by 81980: Wyoming by 251981: Hawai'i by 51982: Wyoming by 181983: Wyoming by 181984: Hawai'i by 31985: Hawai'i by 81986: Hawai'i by 161987: Wyoming by 41988: Wyoming by 61989: Wyoming by 51990: Hawai'i by 211991: Hawai'i by 151992: Hawai'i by 241993: Wyoming by 381994: Wyoming by 31995: Wyoming by 461996: Wyoming by 661997: Wyoming by 292013: Wyoming by 32014: Hawai'i by 102017: Wyoming by 72018: Hawai'i by 42020: Wyoming by 242021: Hawai'i by 242022: Wyoming by 72023: Wyoming by 332025: Hawai'i by 2019782025
  • 2025Hawai'i 27-7Wyoming lost 7-27 at Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 51%.
  • 2023Wyoming 42-9Wyoming won 42-9 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 86%, low 86%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Wyoming 27-20Wyoming won 27-20 at Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 82%, low 49%, high 98%.
  • 2021Hawai'i 38-14Wyoming lost 14-38 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 77%.
  • 2020Wyoming 31-7Wyoming won 31-7 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 43%, low 39%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Wyoming’s chance to win through that meeting. Wyoming is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wyoming fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (80th vs 59th among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.

50-50Model 43% · Line 42%Wyoming fans · 8…Hawai'i fans · 59thHawai'iWyoming

Hawai'i favored by 2.5 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Hawai'i by 2.5, on the usual path until Q2 3:05

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Wyoming.

opened +5.5now +2.5

Spread: +5.5 → +2.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.

Hawai'i at Wyoming · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · War Memorial Stadium, Laramie

  • 73°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 93weather score, Comfortable
  • Roughestof the day's 3 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's three kickoff times. At War Memorial Stadium that day, a 5:30 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 93 at 1 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 1 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)
  • 5:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Wyoming is worth +4.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.

60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-16 home, 16-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 3,322 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mountain West standings