2CMich's fanbase shift signals Mid-Major identity evolution.
Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season marks the start of a new era for Central Michigan, a program historically defined by MAC titles in the early 2000s.
2Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season marks the start of a new era for Central Michigan, a program historically defined by MAC titles in the early 2000s.
Central Michigan won three MAC titles in four years under two coaches who both left for major-conference jobs, and produced an NFL star in Antonio Brown along the way -- a program that keeps building things other people get to keep.
Central Michigan fans watched Brian Kelly and Butch Jones build their national coaching reputations here before cashing out at bigger programs -- and watched Antonio Brown become an NFL star after lea…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · at New Mexico · Sun Sep 6 · 02:00 UTC
Central Michigan won MAC titles in 2006, 2007, and 2009 under coaches Brian Kelly and Butch Jones -- both of whom left for bigger jobs -- fielding a 2009 title team led by Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown, and just opened a new era with Army import Matt Drinkall, who went 7-6 in his 2025 debut season.
The team's roster features only 10% returning players, and it has lost more transfers (17) than it has gained (12), creating uncertainty in key positions like CB and S. With a recruiting rank of #95 and a low continuity score, the team is heavily reliant on new talent to avoid a winless postseason.
Chip waits quietly on the sideline.
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Drinkall, who went 7-6 in his debut, inherits a 10% production return and a program that hasn't won a MAC title since 2009 — the identity anchor is the challenge.
Central Michigan jumped 20 spots in SP+ — the 7-6 record and bottom-quintile returning production create a tension between optimism and the challenge of maintaining momentum under first-year coach Matt Drinkall.
Central Michigan: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Trey Cornist gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
Trey Cornist: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Central Michigan enters 2025 rated No. 100 in SP+ (-8.8), up 20 spots from 2024.
Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season marks the start of a new era for Central Michigan, a program historically defined by MAC titles in the early 2000s.
Markese Peoples commits to Central Michigan
CB depth was flagged as a pressure point for Drinkall's rebuild — Peoples fills that board with the class sitting at #94 nationally and still looking for separation in a reshaped MAC identity.
Top 3 commits
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
82nd percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Central Michigan · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Matt Drinkall took over as Central Michigan's head coach, replacing Jim McElwain. It is replaces 5-year head coach Jim McElwain (24-30). The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 1 of 21 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Central Michigan enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8), up 20 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 7 of 21 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 6
vs New Mexico · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MI leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
93 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. MI leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
8 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 3 cable, 1 conference network, 3 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 1 afternoon, 3 primetime
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 33% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
3 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 8 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 22% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
12 interceptions of 54 disrupted passes (42 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 79 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 78 committed, 69 yards to the good.
633 penalty yards committed vs. 702 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
~ our readCentral Michigan fans are down on the program, with a bit less hard evidence than most fanbases.
✓ counted We read 70 posts from Central Michigan fans this week.
“THEN WE'RE GONNA BEAT THE CHIEFS IN THE SUPERBOWL AND TAYLOR SWIFT WILL BREAK UP WITH TRAVIS AND START DATING JORDAN KWIATKOWSKI”— r/CFB
“Good news sunbelt, youll get a bowl win here no matter what. Bad news, youll also lose.”— r/CFB
“This might be a watch something else at halftime kinda game. I was at least hoping we could get on the board”— r/CFB
“FIRE UP! Drinkall’s first season has been an absolute success, already at 7 wins and a bowl game. It’s a long shot for the MAC Championship but I still believe!”— r/CFB
“I think you'd be more than happy sacrificing this one for the way your primary game is going”— r/CFB
Fanbase Health Index · Central Michigan · medium confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.28 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 147 / 208 | 70.7 | 1854 | 8.9 | 13 | 6 | 160.4 | 48.0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The rare part: he can push it deep — and he puts it wherever he wants, too 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.3 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %73.0% 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 6th to 52nd percentile among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 7 | 9 | 19 / 28 | 67.9 | 195 | 7.0 | 2 | 1 | 142.8 | 50.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 105 | 540 | 5.1 | 2 | 58 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 19.4 | 13.6 | 8.0% (18/226) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.3 51th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate1.9% bottom 19th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nahree Biggins's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.11 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 104 | 469 | 4.5 | 1 | 29 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 20.8 | 13.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Trey Cornist's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.16 EPA/play | 22 | 12 | 82 | 418 | 5.1 | 4 | 46 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 12.7 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.2 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brock Townsend's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 20 | 13 | 43 | 596 | 13.9 | 3 | 77 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 24.8% (56/226) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.9 56th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Langston Lewis's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.41 EPA/play | 82 | 13 | 31 | 422 | 13.6 | 3 | 47 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 19.0% (43/226) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.9 55th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.4 bottom 41th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tommy McIntosh's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.69 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 25 | 323 | 12.9 | 2 | 36 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 14.2% (32/226) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.7 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyson Davis's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.35 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 17 | 143 | 8.4 | 2 | 19 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 10.2% (23/226) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View D.C. Temple's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.39 EPA/play | 88 | 7 | 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 | 23 | 1.6 | 2.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.8 bottom 28th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Henry Dryden's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.29 EPA/play | 80 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 21 | 7.0 | 6.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 13 | 48 | 24 | 16.5 #11 FBS | 11.5 #7 FBS | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate34.4% 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 37th to 84th to 99th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 56 | 12 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.1% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 10 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.0% bottom 24th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Decker's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 49 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.3% bottom 45th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 5th to 50th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 96 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Quavion Bird's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 93 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Daniel Bennett's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 94 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 81 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 13 | 112 | 51 | 61 | 13.5 #36 FBS | 2.5 | 4 | 3 #56 FBS |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume112 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate12.1% 65th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 18th to 78th to 98th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 13 | 81 | 42 | 39 | 6 | 0.5 | 3 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Dakota Cochran's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 40 | 13 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Lawai'a Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 45 | 11 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Xavier White's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume19 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Fernando Sanchez III's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 33 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Victor Earl's full player page | |||||||||
| 42 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 51 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Caleb Spann's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 13 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 63rd percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 8th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 12 | 48 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Elijah Gordon's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Elijah Rikard's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 4 | 13 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.6% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 33rd percentile to the 89th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Maddix Blackwell's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 13 | 25 | 8 #45 FBS | 2 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate32.0% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 2nd percentile among FBS Ss to the 83rd | |||||||
| 24 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 47 | 13 | 14/17 | 82.4 | 35/35 | 77 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 18 | 13 | 54 | 2221 | 41.1 | 71 | 18 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 12 | 250 | 20.8 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 13 | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 | 46 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+18 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #114 | #94 | +14.5 | @San José State | W 16–14 130 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #112 | #47 | +21.5 | @Pittsburgh | L 17–45 126 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #103 | #11 | +27.5 | @Michigan | L 3–63 128 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #107 | #239 | -30.5 | Wagner | W 49–10 119 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #111 | #171 | -3.5 | Eastern Michigan | W 24–13 123 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #114 | #177 | -6.5 | @Akron | L 22–28 130 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #129 | #110 | +3.5 | @Bowling Green | W 27–6 112 | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #112 | #228 | -17.5 | Massachusetts | W 38–13 143 | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #98 | #71 | +5.5 | @Western Michigan | L 21–24 115 | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| 12 | Nov 13 | #96 | #109 | -2 | Buffalo | W 38–19 135 | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 20 | #81 | #213 | -7.5 | @Kent State | W 28–16 129 | 7-4 | 5-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #84 | #27 | +11.5 | Toledo | L 3–21 127 | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 26 | #86 | #59 | +12 | Northwestern (N) | L 7–34 | 7-6 | 5-3 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 | Northwestern | L 7–34 | — | — | — | +0.017 | 47.5% | 64.9% | |
| Nov 29 | Toledo | L 3–21 | 323 | 1 | 31:26 | -0.041 | 29.9% | 113.1% | |
| Nov 20 | @Kent State | W 28–16 | 297 | 1 | 33:21 | +0.101 | 38.8% | 130.0% | |
| Nov 13 | Buffalo | W 38–19 | 358 | 2 | 31:06 | +0.184 | 50.0% | 95.8% | |
| Nov 1 | @Western Michigan | L 21–24 | 240 | 2 | 26:18 | +0.172 | 36.0% | 165.9% | Most explosive |
| Oct 25 | Massachusetts | W 38–13 | 502 | 1 | 37:53 | +0.304 | 51.5% | 122.4% | |
| Oct 18 | @Bowling Green | W 27–6 | 276 | 0 | 31:20 | +0.165 | 36.0% | 137.4% | |
| Oct 4 | @Akron | L 22–28 | 374 | 0 | 27:42 | +0.261 | 37.9% | 146.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Eastern Michigan | W 24–13 | 451 | 0 | 35:46 | +0.334 | 51.4% | 103.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Wagner | W 49–10 | 507 | 2 | 32:23 | +0.228 | 53.7% | 116.6% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | @Michigan | L 3–63 | 142 | 2 | 26:53 | -0.170 | 20.8% | 106.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @Pittsburgh | L 17–45 | 217 | 1 | 36:43 | +0.037 | 26.5% | 159.1% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 30 | @San José State | W 16–14 | 362 | 0 | 33:45 | +0.125 | 43.8% | 89.5% | One-score win |
| Season average (13 games) | 337 | 1.0 | +0.132 | 40.3% | 119.3% | ||||
Central Michigan fields a limited run-heavy offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
52nd percentile quality, 64th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 7th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 28th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
57th percentile success on standard downs, 11th on passing downs — a 46-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 65th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 43rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.13; 52nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 9: 0.16 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Central Michigan reads strongest in passing epa (top 4%) and explosive plays allowed (top 9%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Central Michigan sits at the 15th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Central Michigan
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Central Michigan · 2018-present
62% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +17.2 better at home. Kelly/Shorts Stadium seats 30,255, averaging 55% full (16,572 attendance, 22 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Nahree Biggins and Trey Cornist split the carries (103/204 vs 101/204) -- but Nahree Biggins leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Langston Lewis (WR) and D.C. Temple (TE) split the targets (55/77 vs 22/77) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 10 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Central Michigan’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.2% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 167-play sample) — mid-pack, 8 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
56°F average kickoff temp; 17% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 66 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Central Michigan's 2014–2025 record is 68-77. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1931 · 67 seasons · .518 win rate
Central Michigan won three MAC titles in four years under two coaches who both left for bigger jobs — and produced an NFL star receiver along the way. The program built it. Other places got to keep it.
Brian Kelly won a MAC title at Central Michigan. Then he left for Cincinnati, and eventually Notre Dame, and eventually LSU. Butch Jones took over, won two more MAC titles (2007 and 2009), and then he left too — for Cincinnati, and eventually Tennessee. Three championships in four years, and both architects moved on to Power-conference careers almost as soon as the ink dried.
The best of those teams was 2009: a 20-10 win over Ohio for the title, quarterback Dan LeFevour running the show (3,438 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, plus 713 rushing yards and 15 more scores on the ground that season alone), and receiver Antonio Brown extending a 40-game catch streak and crossing 1,000 receiving yards for the third season running — in the championship game itself. Brown went on to become one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL for a stretch of years, which means the Chippewas can point to a real, honest-to-god NFL star who wore maroon and gold before anyone outside Mount Pleasant knew the name.
Matt Drinkall took over in December 2024 after six seasons at Army, where he'd helped build an 81-56 record and three bowl appearances, and his first Central Michigan team went 7-6 (5-3 MAC) in 2025 — a solid debut in a program that knows exactly what a real coaching era looks like, and knows exactly how fast a good one can leave.
The Kelly/Jones era set the template — up-tempo, quarterback-driven football built around a dual-threat centerpiece like LeFevour — and every era since has been measured against whether it can find that same identity again.
Central Michigan 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.12 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6
Central Michigan: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Mid-American Standing · 2025
Central Michigan sits 4th of 13 in the Mid-American at 5-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Central Michigan
Matt Drinkall in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2006
Brian Kelly and Butch Jones combined for three MAC Championships in four years (2006, 2007, 2009) before both left for bigger jobs -- Kelly eventually to Notre Dame and LSU, Jones to Cincinnati and Tennessee. Central Michigan's modern coaching-pipeline reputation traces directly to this stretch.
since 2009
The 2009 team beat Ohio 20-10 for the MAC title behind quarterback Dan LeFevour (3,438 passing yards, 24 TD, plus 713 rushing yards and 15 rushing TD) and All-American receiver Antonio Brown, who extended a 40-game catch streak and posted his third straight 1,000-yard receiving season in the title game itself. Brown went on to become one of the most productive wide receivers of his NFL generation.
since 1972
The Chippewas play in maroon and gold at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan -- the program's identity colors since the school's founding-era athletics branding.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Central Michigan beats Ohio 20-10 for the MAC title behind Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown, capping a three-titles-in-four-years run
Moment of the Year · Central Michigan · 2025
Week 17 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 34-7 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20254 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes