Western Michigan beats Central Michigan 21-14
Team pages: Western Michigan · Central Michigan
Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 21-14. Share this game
We had Western Michigan favored. It won.
Next: Western Michigan at Toledo, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Western Michigan underdog by 3
Next: Central Michigan vs Miami (OH), Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Central Michigan underdog by 2.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Michigan a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Michigan was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
Favored the whole way: Western Michigan never fell below 53%.
Central Michigan never had better than a 47% chance.
Western Michigan 21-14 Central Michigan
Western Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Central Michigan 14-21 Western MichiganCentral Michigan lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q1 3:08Buckley 9-yd TD run, Western Michigan goes ahead 7-0Western Michigan 68% → 79% (+11)
The play that swung it
- 1Q1 3:08Buckley 9-yd TD run, Western Michigan goes ahead 7-0Central Michigan 32% → 21% (−11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Michigan -7.5), at 64% for Western Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Western Michigan scored on 3 of its 8 drives; Central Michigan on 2 of its 10.
Western Michigan’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Western Michigan’s chance to win the conference rose from 43% to 47%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Western Michigan plays at Toledo on Sat Oct 24 with a 47% chance to win the conference. Central Michigan plays vs Miami (OH) on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 14
Central Michigan covered +7.5 by 0.5. The total, 35, stayed under 42.5.
| Team totals | Western Michigan | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 272 | 337 |
| Passing | 5 of 8, 48 yds | 16 of 32, 179 yds |
| Rushing | 45 for 224 yds | 40 for 158 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 20 |
| Third down | 7 of 13 | 4 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5 for 31 yds | 7 for 62 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:44 | 30:16 |
Western Michigan leaders
- Passing Broc Lowry 5 of 8, 48 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jalen Buckley 24 for 150 yds, 2 TD; Ofa Mataele 13 for 60 yds
- Receiving Aveion Chenault 2 for 34 yds; Nathan Levicki 1 for 10 yds, 1 TD
Central Michigan leaders
- Passing Angel H Flores 14 of 25, 162 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Angel H Flores 31 for 117 yds; Nicholas Woodford 4 for 18 yds
- Receiving Langston Lewis 4 for 74 yds; Jaden Allen 4 for 56 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
54° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Mount Pleasant airport, 3.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Victory Cannon — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
Western Michigan · 4-2
Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 39th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Central Michigan · 3-3
Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Central Michigan
- Wk 2Wvs Colgate13-10
- Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10
- Wk 4Lat Miami3-52
- Wk 5Wvs Akron41-17
- Wk 6Lat Ohio14-31
Western Michigan
- Wk 2Wvs Monmouth49-14
- Wk 3Wat Rice28-21
- Wk 4Lvs Boise State7-32
- Wk 5Wat Buffalo20-17
- Wk 6Wvs Kent State38-7
Power rating by week
Western Michigan is rated 7.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Western Michigan’s explosive plays against Central Michigan, 84 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Western Michigan’s explosive plays against Central Michigan’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 8th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 92nd
Central Michigan’s passing EPA against Western Michigan’s defense
Central Michigan offense, 3rd percentile · Western Michigan defense, 55th
Western Michigan’s success rate against Central Michigan’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 47th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 8th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Central Michigan leads the series 32-27-1
60 meetings since 1962 · Western Michigan won the last meeting
- 2025Western Michigan 24-21
- 2024Central Michigan 16-14
- 2023Western Michigan 38-28
- 2022Western Michigan 12-10
- 2021Central Michigan 42-30
Each line is Central Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Central Michigan is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Western Michigan fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (69th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Western Michigan favored by 7.5 · Total 42.5
How games like this usually go
Western Michigan by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Western Michigan.
Spread: +7 → +7.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Central Michigan is worth +7.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 96th percentile.
56% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (22-17 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 99 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Western Michigan 24, Central Michigan 21Nov 1, 2025
Our History pages cover 10 of their meetings since 2015.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Central Michigan6th1-1
- Western Michigan2nd2-0