Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
Miami (OH) (4‑3) travels to Central Michigan (3‑4), with Miami (OH) favored by 3. Miami (OH)’s rushing offense is at the 65th percentile; Central Michigan’s run defense is at the 15th.
How they got here
Last three games
Miami (OH) · 4-3
Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 98th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Central Michigan · 3-4
Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 123rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Miami (OH)’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan, 50 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami (OH)’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 65th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 15th
Miami (OH)’s EPA/play against Central Michigan’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 58th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 19th
Central Michigan’s explosive plays against Miami (OH)’s defense
Central Michigan offense, 54th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 29th
What’s at stake
Miami (OH)
- Miami (OH) needs 2 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 95% to get there with a win here, 72% with a loss.
- Miami (OH) is coming off a 20-point win.
Central Michigan
- Central Michigan needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 68% to get there with a win here, 31% with a loss.
- Central Michigan hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
Miami (OH) leads the series 17-13-1
31 meetings since 1978 · Miami (OH) has won the last 5
- 2024Miami (OH) 46-7
- 2021Miami (OH) 28-17
- 2019 · neutral siteMiami (OH) 26-21
- 2017Miami (OH) 31-14
- 2016Miami (OH) 37-17
Each line is Central Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Central Michigan is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Miami (OH)
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase points to the names Oxford gave the sport — and watches the program get filed as just another MAC team, as if the place that produced college football's great coaches were a footnote instead of a foundation.
What this game touches
Three title games, no banner. Miami reached its third straight MAC Championship Game in 2025 and lost it 23-13 to Western Michigan, then dropped the Arizona Bowl 18-3 to Fresno State to finish 7-7 — the recurring ache of a program that keeps arriving at the doorstep and getting turned away.
Central Michigan
The chip · vs the blue bloodsCentral Michigan fans watched Brian Kelly and Butch Jones build their national coaching reputations here before cashing out at bigger programs -- and watched Antonio Brown become an NFL star after leaving Mount Pleasant. The program did the hard part of the development; other places got the return.
What this game touches
Losing Brian Kelly, then Butch Jones, to bigger jobs. Both coaches who built the program's 2006-2009 MAC title run left Mount Pleasant for larger programs -- Kelly eventually to Notre Dame and LSU, Jones to Cincinnati and Tennessee. The pattern repeats the same wound every mid-major program with real success knows: the program is often the proving ground, not the destination.
Best players
Miami (OH)
- Malcolm Mccain (LB) · 57 tackles
- Dillon Tatum (DB) · 37 tackles
- Blayne Myrick (LB) · 35 tackles
Central Michigan
- Xavier White (LB) · 52 tackles
- Mayson Hitchens (LB) · 51 tackles
- Brett McCalla (LB) · 50 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Miami (OH): David McComb (1,120 passing yards); Central Michigan: Angel H Flores (618 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 4.5 points toward Miami (OH) since opening (−1.5 → +3).
The total has moved down 3.0 points since opening (42.5 → 39.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Miami (OH) fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (31st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Miami (OH) favored by 3 · Total 39.5
Miami (OH) by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Miami (OH)’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Kelly/Shorts Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 1 pm ET · Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Kelly/Shorts Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 86.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 86, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Central Michigan is worth +7.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.
56% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (22-17 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 280 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Central Michigan
- Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10
- Wk 4Lat Miami3-52
- Wk 5Wvs Akron41-17
- Wk 6Lat Ohio14-31
- Wk 7Lvs Western Michigan14-21
Miami (OH)
- Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35
- Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
- Wk 5Lvs Bowling Green20-24
- Wk 6Wat Massachusetts20-19
- Wk 7Wvs Akron34-14
Power rating by week
Miami (OH) is rated 2.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4.5 points toward Miami (OH).
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −1.5 → +3 · Total: 42.5 → 39.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Central Michigan8th1-2
- Miami (OH)7th2-1