Ohio beats Central Michigan 31-14
Team pages: Central Michigan · Ohio
Ohio beat Central Michigan 31-14. Share this game
We had Ohio favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
Favored the whole way: Ohio never fell below 63%.
Central Michigan never had better than a 36% chance.
Ohio 31-14 Central Michigan
Ohio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Central Michigan 14-31 OhioCentral Michigan lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ohio -2.5), at 64% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Ohio scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Central Michigan on 2 of its 12.
Ohio’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Central Michigan’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Ohio 31, Central Michigan 14
Ohio covered −2.5 by 14.5. The total, 45, stayed under 45.5.
| Team totals | Central Michigan | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 275 | 403 |
| Passing | 17 of 24, 154 yds | 11 of 18, 158 yds |
| Rushing | 32 for 121 yds | 50 for 245 yds |
| First downs | 14 | 23 |
| Third down | 6 of 14 | 9 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 4 for 36 yds | 5 for 26 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:04 | 33:56 |
Central Michigan leaders
- Passing Angel H Flores 14 of 20, 112 yds
- Rushing Nicholas Woodford 3 for 27 yds, 1 TD; Angel H Flores 16 for 27 yds
- Receiving Braylen Naves 4 for 56 yds; Brock Townsend 3 for 37 yds
Ohio leaders
- Passing Nick Poulos 11 of 18, 158 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Duncan Brune 16 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Victor Rosa 9 for 70 yds
- Receiving Riley Neer 4 for 59 yds, 1 TD; Jake Furtney 3 for 43 yds
No rain through the game
61° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain
October game-day temperatures at Peden Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Albany airport, 10 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Central Michigan · 3-2
Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Wyoming as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Ohio · 3-2
Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State #63 of 668
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
Week by week
Ohio
- Wk 1Lat Nebraska21-49
- Wk 2Wvs Jacksonville State29-27
- Wk 3Lat South Alabama36-41
- Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7
- Wk 5Wat Kent State13-10
Central Michigan
- Wk 1Lat New Mexico7-38
- Wk 2Wvs Colgate13-10
- Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10
- Wk 4Lat Miami3-52
- Wk 5Wvs Akron41-17
Power rating by week
Ohio is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s explosive plays against Central Michigan, 81 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio’s explosive plays against Central Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 11th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 92nd
Ohio’s success rate against Central Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 75th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 8th
Ohio’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 88th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 15th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Central Michigan leads the series 27-7-2
36 meetings since 1972 · Ohio has won the last 2
- 2024Ohio 27-25
- 2023Ohio 34-20
- 2021Central Michigan 30-27
- 2020Central Michigan 30-27
- 2017Central Michigan 26-23
Each line is Ohio’s chance to win through that meeting. Ohio is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 72%
- Line · 58%
- Ohio fans · 91st
- Central Michigan fans · 1st
Ohio favored by 2.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Central Michigan.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −3 → −2.5 · Total: 46.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Ohio is worth +5.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 68th percentile.
77% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (30-9 home, 22-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 325 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ohio6th1-0
- Central Michigan3rd1-0