Ohio routs Sacramento State 48-7
Team pages: Ohio · Sacramento State
Ohio routed Sacramento State 48-7. Share this game
We had Ohio favored. It won.
Next: Ohio vs Eastern Michigan, Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 PM ET · Ohio favored by 12.5
Next: Sacramento State at Ball State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Sacramento State underdog by 14
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
Ohio 48-7 Sacramento State
Ohio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sacramento State 7-48 OhioSacramento State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ohio -17.5), at 84% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Ohio scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Sacramento State on 1 of its 11.
Ohio’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Ohio’s chance to win the conference rose from 19% to 24%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Ohio plays vs Eastern Michigan on Sat Oct 24 with a 24% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7
Ohio covered −17.5 by 23.5. The total, 55, went over 46.5.
| Team totals | Ohio | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 468 | 267 |
| Passing | 15 of 22, 203 yds | 15 of 26, 140 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 265 yds | 26 for 127 yds |
| First downs | 30 | 13 |
| Third down | 5 of 10 | 3 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 55 yds | 12 for 130 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:11 | 26:49 |
Ohio leaders
- Passing Nick Poulos 11 of 14, 165 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Irving Brown 8 for 87 yds, 1 TD; Duncan Brune 12 for 55 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Preston Bowman 3 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Riley Neer 5 for 44 yds
Sacramento State leaders
- Passing Brian Salazar 4 of 5, 71 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Isaiah Ene 7 for 59 yds; Cincere Rhaney 3 for 47 yds
- Receiving Kenyon Shabazz 2 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Onterrio Smith Jr. 4 for 37 yds
No rain and calm
72° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 6
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Sacramento/executiv airport, 5.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ohio · 4-2
Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 64th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State #63 of 668
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
Last three games
Sacramento State · 1-5
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 202nd now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Week by week
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
- Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
- Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
- Wk 6Lat Bowling Green10-38
Ohio
- Wk 2Wvs Jacksonville State29-27
- Wk 3Lat South Alabama36-41
- Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7
- Wk 5Wat Kent State13-10
- Wk 6Wvs Central Michigan31-14
Power rating by week
Ohio is rated 10.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Ohio, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Ohio’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 5th percentile · Ohio defense, 69th
Ohio’s EPA/play against Sacramento State’s defense
Ohio offense, 68th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 18th
Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Ohio’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · Ohio defense, 34th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Ohio favored by 17.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio by 17.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Ohio.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +13.5 → +17.5 · Total: 49.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Sacramento State has been 9.5 points worse (±6.8) at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-3 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.3 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,097 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Sacramento State12th0-3
- Ohio3rd2-0