Massachusetts routs Sacramento State 35-6
Team pages: Massachusetts · Sacramento State
Massachusetts routed Sacramento State 35-6. Share this game
We had Massachusetts favored. It won.
Next: Massachusetts lost to Eastern Michigan 38-14, Sat Oct 3
Next: Sacramento State lost to Bowling Green 38-10, Sat Oct 10
How it swung
The turning point: Watson 32-yd TD run, Massachusetts leads 14-3 (Q2, 10:27). Massachusetts went from 72% to 89% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Massachusetts a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Massachusetts was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.
Massachusetts · Q3 13:31Massachusetts 35-6 Sacramento State
Massachusetts wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sacramento State 6-35 MassachusettsSacramento State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q2 10:27Watson 32-yd TD run, Massachusetts leads 14-3Massachusetts 72% → 89% (+17)
The play that swung it
- 1Q2 10:27Watson 32-yd TD run, Massachusetts leads 14-3Sacramento State 28% → 11% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Massachusetts -6), at 63% for Massachusetts (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Massachusetts scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Sacramento State on 2 of its 11.
Massachusetts’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Massachusetts’s chance to win the conference rose from 2% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6
Massachusetts covered −6 by 23. The total, 41, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | Massachusetts | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 333 | 323 |
| Passing | 11 of 16, 101 yds | 24 of 43, 221 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 232 yds | 34 for 102 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 23 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 6 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Penalties | 6 for 50 yds | 9 for 85 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:08 | 31:52 |
Massachusetts leaders
- Passing William Watson III 11 of 16, 101 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing William Watson III 7 for 72 yds, 2 TD; Curtis Kimmons IV 11 for 61 yds
- Receiving Ty Harding 3 for 44 yds; Jabari Lewis 3 for 38 yds
Sacramento State leaders
- Passing Jackson Sharman 24 of 43, 221 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Daniel Swinney 9 for 35 yds; Cincere Rhaney 10 for 34 yds
- Receiving Raiden Brown 6 for 61 yds; Matthew Coleman 4 for 42 yds
No rain and calm
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 12
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Sacramento/executiv airport, 5.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Massachusetts · 3-0
Rated 258th in our preseason ratings, 165th now, up 93 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 16-point win over Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog.
Last 4 games
Sacramento State · 1-3
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 148th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
- Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
Massachusetts
- Wk 1Wat Rutgers37-21
- Wk 2Wvs Sacred Heart37-10
- Wk 3Wvs Stonehill36-14
Power rating by week
Sacramento State is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Massachusetts, 83 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Massachusetts’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · Massachusetts defense, 84th
Sacramento State’s EPA/play against Massachusetts’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 4th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 72nd
Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Massachusetts’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 5th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 79th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Massachusetts fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 43%
- Line · 31%
- Sacramento State fans · 77th
- Massachusetts fans · 83rd
Massachusetts favored by 6 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Massachusetts by 6, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 50.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Sacramento State has been 9.5 points worse (±6.8) at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-3 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.3 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,548 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Sacramento State12th0-1
- Massachusetts9th0-0