North Dakota State at Sacramento State
North Dakota State (3‑0) at Sacramento State (1‑2) — North Dakota State is favored by 27.5. The model gives North Dakota State a 60% shot. Sacramento State's explosive plays (5th pct) vs. North Dakota State's explosive plays allowed (95th pct) -- a 90-point gap.
How they got here
Last three games
North Dakota State · 3-0
Picked #89 in the preseason · now #72 — better than expected.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 38–32 @ Air Force #78 of 669
won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 38–0 vs Fordham #250 of 669
won by 38 as a 41.5-point favorite
W 33–7 vs Jacksonville State #70 of 669
won by 26 as a 6.5-point favorite
Last three games
Sacramento State · 1-2
Picked #131 in the preseason · now #128 — about right.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 3–49 @ Fresno State #57 of 669
lost by 46 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 52–0 vs Mississippi Valley State #255 of 669
won by 52 as a 38.5-point favorite
L 17–28 @ Eastern Michigan #101 of 669
lost by 11 as a 9-point underdog
Collisions
- Sacramento State's explosive plays (5th pct) vs. North Dakota State's explosive plays allowed (95th pct) -- a 90-point gap.
- Sacramento State's EPA/play (35th pct) vs. North Dakota State's EPA/play allowed (95th pct) -- a 60-point gap.
- Sacramento State's passing EPA (25th pct) vs. North Dakota State's passing EPA allowed (85th pct) -- a 60-point gap.
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
North Dakota State
The chip · vs the national mediaThe chip is fourteen years of national media calling the FCS titles impressive but small — asterisked by the level, dimmed by the division, never fully counted. Bison fans believe that ten championships under any banner is ten championships, and they are carrying that belief into the Mountain West to prove it matters at any altitude.
Sacramento State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsSac State fans believe the Sacramento market, a $57M NIL base, and a new stadium are exactly what Power programs take for granted — and that the Hornets are building it themselves, from scratch, with no inherited infrastructure. They say the FBS will learn what the Big Sky already knows: this program punches up.
Best players
North Dakota State
- Donovan Woolen (LB) · 22 tackles
- Nathan Hayes (QB) · 598 passing yards
- Gavin Sell (LB) · 14 tackles
Sacramento State
- Boogsie Silvera (S) · 23 tackles
- Matthew Coleman (WR) · 232 receiving yards
- Amari Wallace (S) · 17 tackles
The line, and the room
North Dakota State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (85th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 40%
- Market · 1%
- Sacramento State fans · 11th
- North Dakota State fans · 85th
Home +27.5 · O/U 52
Conditions
86°F · 6 mph wind
Sacramento State is worth +31.4 points (±6.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
100% at home, 18% on the road against FBS opponents (2–0 home, 2–9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.2 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,369 miles to get here.
Stat sheet
Recent games
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
North Dakota State
- Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7
- Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
- Wk 2Wat Air Force38-32
Trajectory
The market
Spread: +28 → +27.5 · Total: 53 → 52