North Dakota State 31-10 Sacramento State (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Dakota State · Sacramento State

North Dakota State4-031

Sacramento State1-310Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Hornet Stadium, Sacramento, Calif. · Crowd 13,322

North Dakota State beat Sacramento State 31-10.

We had North Dakota State favored. It won.

Next: North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0, Sat Oct 3

Next: Sacramento State lost to Massachusetts 35-6, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

See, Sacramento State made the classic mistake of not being a state. No wonder North Dakota, a state, is handing them their asses

Q2 9:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State a 66% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 26.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota State never fell below 93%.

Sacramento State never had better than a 7% chance.

Fumble return TD

North Dakota State · Q1 11:49

FinalNorth Dakota State 31-10 Sacramento StateNorth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 13:37Hayes throws deep touchdown to Williams, NDSU leads 7-0That is probably the 7th TD the defense has given up this season in the exact same situation. Why we leave any of these DBs on an island is beyond me.r/CFB game thread
Q2 12:33Scott runs for a touchdown, extending NDSU's lead to 28-0Normally, I’d cheer against NDSU. But considering that they’re playing these daddy’s money frauds. Hang 100 on em bison. Make them know they ain’t cut out for this.r/CFB game thread
Q2 9:24Quoted at the top of the page.NDSU with MACtion would be an even bigger bloodbathr/CFB game thread
Q2 3:23NDSU fans mock dropped passes and a player slipping on the sidelineHe done fell on his ass on the sideline.r/CFB game threadDropping TDs, dropping picks. FFS.r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:23Fans debate a hard hit on Sacramento State's QB after a 5-yard runOkay - I feel bad for that QB. Those are hard hits.r/CFB game thread

North Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -26.5), at 93% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Sacramento State or North Dakota State flair (35 and 153); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

North Dakota State scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Sacramento State on 2 of its 11.

North Dakota State’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“The beatings will continue until morale improves at Sac State”

A North Dakota State fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

North Dakota State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 0%.

Make the playoff

North Dakota State · won3% → ▼0%

Sacramento State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

North Dakota State · won33% → ▼0%

Sacramento State · lost4% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10

Sacramento State covered +26.5 by 5.5. The total, 41, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	North Dakota State	Sacramento State
Total yards	362	328
Passing	14 of 25, 210 yds	25 of 41, 238 yds
Rushing	34 for 152 yds	26 for 90 yds
First downs	17	20
Third down	6 of 12	8 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	5 for 53 yds	5 for 60 yds
Time of possession	30:30	29:30

North Dakota State leaders

Passing Nathan Hayes 14 of 24, 210 yds, 1 TD
Rushing DJ Scott 14 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Myles Mitchell 10 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jackson Williams 7 for 134 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Collins 1 for 38 yds

Sacramento State leaders

Passing Jackson Sharman 25 of 41, 238 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Cincere Rhaney 9 for 38 yds; Isaiah Ene 9 for 36 yds
Receiving Matthew Coleman 8 for 95 yds; Jordan Williams 3 for 42 yds

No rain and calm

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 16

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left7:42 p.m.

North Dakota State 0, Sacramento State 0 · Sacramento State 7% to win

no rain · wind 9 mph from the south-southwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 16 · 75°

Hayes incomplete to Collins

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Sacramento/executiv airport, 5.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

North Dakota State · 3-0

Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 70th now, up 19 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 38-32 @ Air Force #79 of 668

won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-0 vs Fordham #249 of 668

won by 38 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 33-7 vs Jacksonville State #69 of 668

won by 26 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games

Sacramento State · 1-2

Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 130th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 3-49 @ Fresno State #55 of 668

lost by 46 as a 17.5-point underdog

W 52-0 vs Mississippi Valley State #253 of 668

won by 52 as a 38.5-point favorite

L 17-28 @ Eastern Michigan #101 of 668

lost by 11 as a 9.5-point underdog

Week by week

Sacramento State

Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49

North Dakota State

Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7
Wk 1Wvs Fordham38-0
Wk 2Wat Air Force38-32

Power rating by week

North Dakota State is rated 4.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s EPA/play against North Dakota State, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Sacramento State’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 4th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
Sacramento State’s explosive plays against North Dakota State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · North Dakota State defense, 92nd
Sacramento State’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 7th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 96th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North Dakota StateSacramento State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Dakota State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (74th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

North Dakota State favored by 26.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota State by 26.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward North Dakota State.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Sacramento State has been 9.5 points worse (±6.8) at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.

0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-3 home, 2-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.3 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,369 miles to get here.

North Dakota State beats Sacramento State 31-10