Sacramento State at Fresno State
Fan take
Sacramento State fans
Fresno State fans
How they got here
Last two games
Sacramento State · 1-1
Picked #133 in the preseason · now #133 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 52–0 vs Mississippi Valley State #253 of 669
won by 52 as a 38.5-point favorite
L 17–28 @ Eastern Michigan #109 of 669
lost by 11 as a 9-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Fresno State · 9-4
Picked #53 in the preseason · now #37 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 18–3 vs Miami (OH) #75 of 668
won by 15 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 41–14 @ San José State #152 of 668
won by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 17–28 vs Utah State #90 of 668
lost by 11 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 24–3 vs Wyoming #110 of 668
won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 30–7 @ Boise StateTop 25 #39 of 668
won by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 0–23 vs San Diego State #43 of 668
lost by 23 as a 3-point underdog
L 21–49 @ Colorado State #102 of 668
lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 20–17 vs Nevada #153 of 668
won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 23–21 @ Hawai'i #107 of 668
won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 56–7 vs Southern #222 of 668
won by 49 as a 38.5-point favorite
W 36–27 @ Oregon State #92 of 668
won by 9 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 42–14 vs Georgia Southern #73 of 668
won by 28 as a 2-point favorite
L 7–31 @ Kansas #50 of 668
lost by 24 as a 14-point underdog
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
Fresno State leads the series 6-0
6 meetings since 1972 · Fresno State has won the last 6
- 2026Fresno State 49–3
- 2024Fresno State 46–30
- 2019Fresno State 34–20
- 2016Fresno State 31–3
- 2007Fresno State 24–3
Best players
Sacramento State
- Boogsie Silvera (S) · 23 tackles
- Matthew Coleman (WR) · 232 receiving yards
- Amari Wallace (S) · 17 tackles
Fresno State
- K'Vion Thunderbird (LB) · 13 tackles
- Martin Owusu (DL) · 13 tackles
- Jayden Mandal (QB) · 393 passing yards
The line, and the room
Fresno State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 76%
- Market · 92%
- Fresno State fans · 91st
- Sacramento State fans · 12th
Home −17.5 · O/U 43.5
Conditions
82°F · 15 mph wind · Fair
Fresno State is worth +5.2 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 68th percentile.
70% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (28–12 home, 26–23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 76 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 151 miles to get here.
Sacramento State 3 – Fresno State 49
Called it — picked Fresno State to win.
Recent games
Fresno State
- Wk 1Lat USC0-39
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
Trajectory
Fresno State handled Sacramento State 49-3, matching the pregame favorite.