2offseason
Boise State's win total rises slightly
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a win total rise to 8.5, signaling Boise State's push to sustain its G5 prominence amid a top-81 talent landscape.
Boise State9-5AP #25Latest
No consensus around Boise State right now — the fanbase is genuinely divided.
belief cooled ↓ 9.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
47/100 · 136 mentions
~ our readGrounding
about average
8% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 34 pts
~ our readThe model
#49
CFB Zeitgeist · +4.1
✓ measured2Hope-Doping·Offseason
The little program on the blue turf that keeps beating the giants — and keeps being told it doesn't count.
AP Top 25#25 AP
Broncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Boise State
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production58%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#81 nationally247 composite 610.6
Portal Additions11Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses19Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#51Development class
Sin 2 - Roman Tillmonout 3 - Ty BenefieldDowngrade
WRin 1 - Darren Morrisout 3 - Chris MarshallStarter Risk
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 1 - Zander Estyout 3 - Tyler KeinathStarter Risk
current room: 302 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 2 - Juelz Goffout 2 - Greg ArdEven
current room: 196 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 1 - Logan Brantleyout 2 - Clay MartineauDowngrade
current room: 224 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 2 - Cam Jamersonout 1 - Davon BanksUpgrade
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Oregon · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
The experience
Boise State is the G5 program that refused to stay small — Statue of Liberty in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, blue turf, 2024 CFP appearance under Spencer Danielson.
Offense: StrongTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Strong
Boise State projects to finish 9-4 with bowl eligibility
The team returns 58% of its roster and faces a challenging schedule, but its moderate continuity and development class may limit ceiling potential.
- Roster reloadBoise State returns 58% of its roster with moderate continuity, as indicated by the returning_total_pct value.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Buster Bronco is patient.
Boise State · the story right now
15 storylines developing
What Boise State's program standing is really about
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
dynastythis cycle~readnew
Boise State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — their first time below the top-11% tier since 2024 raises questions about sustaining a 9-5 season with #81 talent.
what happenedBoise State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 22% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16%. ✓ fact
the contexta 29-10 record over the last three regular seasons
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-06-25~readnew
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a win total rise to 8.5, signaling Boise State's push to sustain its G5 prominence amid a top-81 talent landscape.
what happenedBoise State win total rose from 8 to 8.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 0.5 from 8.0 to 8.5
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Chase Penry is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Latrell Caples produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Sire Gaines does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a #25 AP finish, but coordinator changes and an uneasy fanbase signal tension over sustaining Boise State's G5 dominance.
what happenedBoise State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Cameron Bates is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Chase Penry is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Chase Penry: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Dylan Riley: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Latrell Caples: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Matt Lauter is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Matt Wagner is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
short yardagethis cycle~attributednew
Sire Gaines converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a #25 AP finish, anchoring Boise State's identity as a G5 program that refuses to stay small.
what happenedBoise State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedBoise State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredBoise State's fall from dynasty-caliber territory held — it stayed out.
Died downBoise State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Boise State
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
2026 QB commits to Boise State
Danielson's locking in the QB room early for '26 — with the O-line depth still sorting itself out around guys like Casey, getting the signal-caller committed before the spring chaos matters more than the timing looks.
- News
Win total: 8 → 8.5 (▲0.5)
Half-win bump with just one draft departure and a #62 class — the market's buying Danielson's rebuild trajectory, but that early Pac-12 test could flip this number fast if the IOL pressure doesn't hold.
Transfer portal snapshot
-15.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: -28.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-9.7
starter risk
IOL-6.9
starter risk
S-4.6
P-4.5
starter risk
DL+3.5
low confidence
LB-3.5
EDGE-3.5
low confidence
CB+3.4
QB-3.3
low confidence
RB+0.2
OT+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Terrious Favors
#427 national
★★★☆☆
Kole Cronin
#665 national
★★★☆☆
Rasean Jones
#804 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
↓
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
11th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↓
11th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(82nd among FBS)
(82nd among FBS)
Market 71pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 8.5▲0.5 since Jun 2026
CFP championship#50 in field+25000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Boise State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Boise State · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Boise State · Program power Confidence
The arrow is pointing down for Boise State — the numbers back it.
Boise State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 22% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16%. It is a 29-10 record over the last three regular seasons. The data dipped but the coverage hasn't followed. Either the model is ahead of the room or the room is wishful.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Boise State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — their first time below the top-11% tier since 2024 raises questions about sustaining a 9-5 season with #81 talent.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of slipping isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop that a 'they're down' narrative can accelerate. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
Source of record: Boise State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 22% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16% — a 29-10 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.›
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
“Five Broncos Land on Pac-12 Preseason Impact List”
Boise State University Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Raise a glass, Bronco Nation: Boise State debuts signature wines”
Boise Dev · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Bud Light Rolls Out Limited Edition Boise State Beer Cans”
1035kissfmboise.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Following now · Boise State · Market Confidence
The market bumped Boise State up a win. Win totals move for reasons; the books don't give interviews.
Boise State win total rose from 8 to 8.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C). It is win total up 0.5 from 8.0 to 8.5. The coverage is already ahead of this. The fan base is aligned with the move. The coverage runs aligned with the move.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a win total rise to 8.5, signaling Boise State's push to sustain its G5 prominence amid a top-81 talent landscape.
Next · what to watch
Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes.
Source of record: Boise State win total rose from 8 to 8.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C) — win total up 0.5 from 8.0 to 8.5.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
“Five Broncos Land on Pac-12 Preseason Impact List”
Boise State University Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Raise a glass, Bronco Nation: Boise State debuts signature wines”
Boise Dev · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Bud Light Rolls Out Limited Edition Boise State Beer Cans”
1035kissfmboise.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards14% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (80%).›
This event was in 30 of 214 board posts (14%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"The new Pac-12 is the highest this team will ever get. The isolation and size of Boise doesn't make it enough of a draw and the educational standards of Boise State aren't nearly h"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (148 posts): 16% positive · 48% neutral · 36% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Oregon · away
Season line8.5 winsover -160
StrongExplosive, big-playStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Idaho
Hopeful+18
Idaho-Boise State
Fresno State
Hopeful+5
Milk Can
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
33
CA · 14ID · 3TX · 3AZ · 2MD · 2OR · 2AK · 1CO · 1+5 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
111 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] USF Defeats Boise State 34-7
[Game Thread] Boise State @ USF (5:30 PM ET)
[Postgame Thread] Boise State Defeats Eastern Washington 51-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
Just one AP voter, Brian Fonseca (NJ Advance Media / Star-Ledger), has them ranked — at #25. The other 65 voters left them off entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
14 games with TV coverage: 4 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 9 cable
Kickoff windows: 5 afternoon, 9 primetime
Fumble luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 67% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
8 of 12 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Cashing in more than most: 30% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
14 interceptions of 46 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 14 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
The flags have favored them: 109 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 97 committed, 82 yards to the good.
832 penalty yards committed vs. 914 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Boise State
47
Δ -9.5 vs last wk
136
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Smurf Turf"
— Boise State fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence6 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 10 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
CCampus paper
BBroncoFans
BBluesky
YYouTube
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Boomers & Gen X
most bought-in cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
Bettors
coolest cohort our read
How Boise State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 10 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Boomers & Gen X+0.18
Bettors−0.00
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
376 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkmiddle of the pack
~ our readBoise State fans are down on the program, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 148 posts from Boise State fans this week.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
player performanceLimited signal that season
fans believe the offensive line is allowing too many sacks
I really hope we can see the O-line give him breathing room like this for the rest of the season
yeah he’s a great qb (fuck all the anti madsen folks) but it’s the o line breaking that makes him need to scramble.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 6, 2025 · via CFB
officiatingLimited signal that season
fans believe referees are missing obvious fumbles
If the refs knew what they were doing, we might’ve gotten that second fumble
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 13, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 1
“This is exactly who they were last season. Bad coaching. Bad QB. No secondary. With one notable exception. I don’t want to hear another word about how anybody other than Jeanty was the Heisman last season.”— r/CFB
Week 15
“is it over yet, are our husky overlords done beating us to death over the last three meetings? Is this because of Coach Pete? What have I done to deserve this life sad bronco neighs”— r/CFB
Week 2
“It was 4 hours of some of the most mind numbing, poorly officiated, terrible football I’ve had the mispleasure of watching. I genuinely wanted to turn off the game several times, questioned why I had to be born a WVU fan, and have done nothing but yell at the TV with my dad fo…”— r/CFB
Week 6
“Playing two FCS teams helps that record. But they almost lost to Idaho State, too. I can see our RBs running thru these guys but they still have a good pass game.”— r/CFB
Week 9
“If SDSU wins out and JMU drops one along the way I bet they get the spot. They’d deserve it.”— r/CFB
Fanbase Health Index · Boise State · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Boise State · high confidenceGrowing (62)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-5 (64% win rate)61
Volume — 1011 effective signal-N90
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.06 — quiet35
The Lexicon
579 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
madsen
×635.9 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
madsen×635.9n=34
jeanty×130.9n=14
cutforth×561.1n=10
Characteristic — 3–10×
secondary×6.5n=28
Mild — <3×
defense×2.1n=98
walk×8.6n=10
penalties×8.3n=10
coaching staff×4.7n=15
offense×2.0n=66
kicker×3.3n=20
“caples is a great WR. this is on madsen.”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fans using MADSEN (8 examples)
UNLV clearly came to stop the run tonight. Nice to see Madsen making plays off of that
Madsen sucks so bad. Stop throwing the ball down the field! We want Cutforth in appare
We’re so fucking hot and cold on madsen it’s incredible 😂
Nice Madsen! That's not a play Cutforth can make.
caples is a great WR. this is on madsen.
Would love a repeat of the dart Madsen threw to Caples in last year's game for the first TD.
That's fair. Our offense was better with Madsen against G5 opponents though. The defense has been torn apart by most teams and gives
cutforth has a helluva arm holy shit. and they’re not floaters like madsens
Fanbase Voice
2,296 fan mentions
Measured
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Your Vocabulary Clusterdefense / offense / line
defenseoffenselinebad
with 5 other fanbasesKey stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#42 / 138 · 70th pct29.9
Pts allowed/game#55 / 138 · 61st pct24.1
Total yards/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct424.3
Rush yards/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct179.4
Pass yards/gm#30 / 136 · 79th pct244.9
Yards allowed/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct337.9
Rush yds allowed/gm#108 / 136 · 21st pct162.4
Sacks#55 / 136 · 60th pct28
Interceptions#22 / 136 · 85th pct14
3rd-down conv#26 / 136 · 82nd pct45.8%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5940424.3/gm5.81/play#16 / 136 · 89th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp4730337.9/gm5.46/play#76 / 136 · 45th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush yards
Team2512179.4/gm2.46/play#27 / 136 · 81st pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp2273162.4/gm2.62/play#108 / 136 · 21st pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Rush carries
Team55039.3/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp46733.4/gm#85 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Rush TDs
Team292.1/gm#31 / 136 · 78th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp251.8/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Net pass yards
Team3428244.9/gm3.35/play#30 / 136 · 79th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp2457175.5/gm2.84/play#28 / 136 · 80th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass attempts
Team47233.7/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp39928.5/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Completions
Team27419.6/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp21715.5/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Pass TDs
Team231.6/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp171.2/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Passer rating
Team129.2129.2#81 / 136 · 41st pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp113.2113.2#13 / 136 · 91st pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team141.0/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp141.0/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team282.0/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp261.9/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Tackles for loss
Team846.0/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp674.8/gm#64 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
First downs
Team31022.1/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp23316.6/gm#36 / 136 · 74th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
3rd-down conv
Team997.1/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp624.4/gm#31 / 136 · 78th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
3rd-down att
Team21615.4/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp18413.1/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down conv
Team191.4/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp90.6/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down att
Team372.6/gm#9 / 136 · 94th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp231.6/gm#46 / 136 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Time of possession
Team459:4832:51/gm#8 / 136 · 95th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp379:5427:08/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#104 / 135 · 24th pct12/17 (70.6%)
Extra points50/50
Punting#63 / 136 · 54th pct43.6 avg · 56 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team211.5/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp231.6/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team70.5/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp90.6/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
INT return TDs
Team30.2/gm#4 / 135 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team20914.9/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp1258.9/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Punt ret yds
Team755.4/gm#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp896.4/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team49835.6/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp33123.6/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
Penalty yards
Team83259.4/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp91465.3/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Other
Penalties#13 / 136 · 91st pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct976.9/gm
Interceptions (def)#22 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct141.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct130.9/gm
Fumbles recovered#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct90.6/gm
Kick returns#34 / 136 · 76th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct261.9/gm
H2 epa per play#39 / 142 · 73rd pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#46 / 167 · 73rd pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct0.10.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#49 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct120.9/gm
Fourth down go rate#57 / 138 · 59th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.40.0/gm
Recruiting rating#62 / 138 · 56th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct189.113.5/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#71 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct70.5/gm
H1 epa per play#72 / 162 · 56th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct0.20.0/gm
Punt returns#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct130.9/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#92 / 143 · 36th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct0.20.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#113 / 154 · 27th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.30.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#120 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct141.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#132 / 136 · 4th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct1097.8/gm
First down pass rate#147 / 215 · 32nd pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.40.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off45.8%#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def33.7%#22 / 136 · 85th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down conversion
Off51.4%#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def39.1%#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Turnover margin#54 / 136 · 61st pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct+0.14/gm
Sack rate (def)#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct7.0%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team503.6/gm#41 / 167 · 76th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp443.1/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Red zone score %
Team82.0%82.0%#61 / 167 · 64th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp90.9%90.9%#148 / 166 · 11th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Points / drive
Team2.30.2/gm#46 / 167 · 73rd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp1.80.1/gm#61 / 166 · 64th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / drive
Team40.42.9/gm#81 / 167 · 52nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp34.52.5/gm#19 / 166 · 89th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.80.5/gm#43 / 167 · 75th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp6.00.4/gm#18 / 166 · 90th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team11.2%11.2%#50 / 167 · 71st pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp16.1%16.1%#40 / 166 · 77th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#49 / 145 · 67th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct+1.8%+1.8%
Havoc rate
Team16.8%16.8%#53 / 140 · 63rd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp13.7%13.7%#47 / 140 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Standard-downs success
Team46.8%46.8%#87 / 154 · 44th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Opp41.9%41.9%#13 / 172 · 93rd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct
Passing-downs success
Team32.6%32.6%#55 / 153 · 65th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp29.3%29.3%#58 / 149 · 62nd pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.13.1#35 / 143 · 76th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp3.13.1#102 / 155 · 35th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Stuff rate
Team15.7%15.7%#31 / 143 · 79th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp18.7%18.7%#74 / 155 · 53rd pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Power success rate
Team83.3%83.3%#6 / 137 · 96th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct
Opp64.7%64.7%#41 / 141 · 72nd pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off58.1%#109 / 136 · 21st pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def54.4%#8 / 136 · 95th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.3#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def6.2#19 / 136 · 87th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off12.5#35 / 136 · 75th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def11.3#60 / 136 · 57th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / carry#54 / 136 · 61st pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct4.6
Yards / play#59 / 136 · 57th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct5.81
Scoring margin#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct+5.8/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.25 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 176 / 302 | 58.3 | 2333 #75 FBS | 7.7 | 18 #49 FBS | 9 | 136.9 | 53.2 | 7.0 | 4.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.0 66th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %59.3% bottom 28th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Maddux Madsen's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.14 EPA/play | 14 | 9 | 95 / 167 | 56.9 | 1059 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 112.1 | 38.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.8 bottom 27th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-4.3 bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Max Cutforth's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 24 | 14 | 195 | 1125 #24 FBS | 5.8 | 10 #46 FBS | 77 | 8 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 4.7% (20/423) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 21st to 89th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | 26 | 14 | 161 | 812 | 5.0 | 8 | 46 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 3.5% (15/423) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 43th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.4% bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 2.33 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 23 | 14 | 85 | 418 | 4.9 | 4 | 44 | 11.5 | 11 | 23.2 | 11.0 | 7.6% (32/423) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share24.8% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception8.9 64th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Malik Sherrod's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.37 EPA/play | 3 | 13 | 51 | 616 | 12.1 | 3 | 34 | 15.9 | 13.4 | 19.9% (84/423) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume51 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Latrell Caples's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.48 EPA/play | 5 | 10 | 30 | 574 | 19.1 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 13.1 | 13.5% (57/423) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.4 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate6.7% bottom 38th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Marshall's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.84 EPA/play | 13 | 11 | 30 | 394 | 13.1 | 1 | 46 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 10.2% (43/423) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.0 58th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 6th percentile to the 48th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.18 EPA/play | 85 | 12 | 37 | 330 | 8.9 | 2 | 20 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 13.0% (55/423) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Matt Lauter's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +1.15 EPA/play | 82 | 7 | 21 | 325 | 15.5 | 5 | 60 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 7.1% (30/423) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.8 66th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ben Ford's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.34 EPA/play | 80 | 12 | 18 | 307 | 17.1 | 1 | 44 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 9.0% (38/423) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.7 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume18 bottom 18th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameron Bates's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.19 EPA/play | 88 | 13 | 23 | 246 | 10.7 | 1 | 28 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 8.0% (34/423) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Matt Wagner's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.36 EPA/play | 25 | 5 | 5 | 120 | 24 | 2 | 66 | 3.3 | 2.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 12 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 0.5 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.9% 88th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 17th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 55th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 13 | 24 | 7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.1% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Braxton Fely's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 19 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · senior View Dion Washington's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 59 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Lopez Sanusi's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Michael Madrie's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 53 | 14 | 77 | 51 | 26 | 6 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.8% bottom 42th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume77 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marco Notarainni's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 41 | 14 | 66 | 47 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Boen Phelps's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 5 | 14 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 13 #42 FBS | 6 #74 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Jayden Virgin's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 43 | 13 | 43 | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Jake Ripp's full player page | |||||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 15 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.6 100th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malakai Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 51 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Roman Caywood's full player page | |||||||||
| 13 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | — | 14 | 105 | 3 | 2 | 8.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume105 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ty Benefield's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 21 | 12 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume66 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zion Washington's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 6 | 14 | 60 | 9 #36 FBS | 4 #23 FBS | 1.5 | 0.5 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.0% 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 54th percentile among FBS Ss to the 98th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 11 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.2% 76th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaden Mickey's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 4 #23 FBS | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View A'Marion McCoy's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Derek Ganter Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 35 | 14 | 11/15 | 73.3 | 46/46 | 79 | 52 |
| 48 | 1 | 1/2 | 50 | 4/4 | 7 | 35 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 14 | 56 | 2441 | 43.6 | 59 | 17 | 5 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 23 | 14 | 24 | 492 | 20.5 | 0 | 41 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 23 | 14 | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 | 17 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Ty Benefield
DB
105 tot (def)
2.
Marco Notarainni
LB
77.0 tot (def)
3.
Dylan Riley
RB
1,125 yds (rush)
4.
Zion Washington
DB
66.0 tot (def)
5.
Boen Phelps
LB
66.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
23
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Jeremiah Earby
CB
#16 of 364
Ty Benefield
S
#34 of 544
Jayden Virgin
EDGE
#30 of 420
Dylan Riley
RB
#39 of 326
Braxton Fely
EDGE
#67 of 420
Marco Notarainni
LB
#138 of 583
+17 more
Boise State · 2025 schedule & results9-5Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 54% · 3 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #33 | #31 | -4.5 | @South Florida | L 7–34 139 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #18 | #165 | -33 | Eastern Washington | W 51–14 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #38 | #89 | -11.5 | @Air Force | W 49–37 130 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #33 | #142 | -17.5 | App State | W 47–14 139 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #37 | #3 | +21.5 | @Notre Dame | L 7–28 122 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #30 | #112 | -15.5 | New Mexico | W 41–25 137 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #32 | #78 | -13.5 | UNLV | W 56–31 127 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #26 | #173 | -21 | @Nevada | W 24–3 128 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #28 | #125 | -17.5 | Fresno State | L 7–30 130 | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #38 | #64 | +2.5 | @San Diego State | L 7–17 115 | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #38 | #177 | -17 | Colorado State | W 49–21 150 | 7-4 | 1-2 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #36 | #90 | -1.5 | @Utah State | W 25–24 161 | 8-4 | 2-2 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #42 | #53 | -3.5 | UNLV | W 38–21 141 | 9-4 | 2-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 16 | Dec 14 | #34 | #19 | +10 | Washington (N) | L 10–38 | 9-5 | 2-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 | Washington | L 10–38 | — | — | — | -0.163 | 31.0% | 126.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Dec 6 | UNLV | W 38–21 | 460 | 0 | 31:20 | +0.302 | 43.7% | 143.0% | |
| Nov 28 | @Utah State | W 25–24 | 512 | 1 | 36:40 | +0.082 | 37.5% | 123.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 23 | Colorado State | W 49–21 | 533 | 1 | 36:55 | +0.254 | 51.1% | 101.8% | Best success rate |
| Nov 16 | @San Diego State | L 7–17 | 268 | 0 | 31:05 | +0.094 | 47.5% | 74.5% | |
| Nov 1 | Fresno State | L 7–30 | 193 | 3 | 26:46 | -0.076 | 25.4% | 114.3% | |
| Oct 25 | @Nevada | W 24–3 | 308 | 1 | 34:19 | +0.046 | 35.1% | 126.3% | |
| Oct 18 | UNLV | W 56–31 | 558 | 2 | 27:53 | +0.646 | 45.6% | 200.8% | Most explosive |
| Oct 12 | New Mexico | W 41–25 | 399 | 0 | 40:35 | +0.259 | 40.5% | 135.4% | |
| Oct 4 | @Notre Dame | L 7–28 | 315 | 4 | 35:46 | -0.055 | 37.8% | 119.6% | |
| Sep 27 | App State | W 47–14 | 473 | 0 | 38:10 | +0.127 | 38.8% | 135.2% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 20 | @Air Force | W 49–37 | 595 | 1 | 23:40 | +0.719 | 50.0% | 192.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Eastern Washington | W 51–14 | 637 | 0 | 28:24 | +0.490 | 48.5% | 165.2% | Blowout win |
| Aug 28 | @South Florida | L 7–34 | 378 | 3 | 36:21 | -0.033 | 41.9% | 85.1% | |
| Season average (14 games) | 433 | 1.2 | +0.192 | 41.0% | 131.7% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Boise State fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a strong, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Boise State actually scores
66th percentile quality, 20th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Boise State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 51st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 80th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Boise State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
42nd percentile success on standard downs, 63rd on passing downs — a 21-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Boise State by half
1st-half offense ranks 56th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 73rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Boise State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.19; 68th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.39 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Boise State reads strongest in passing epa allowed (top 4%) and success rate allowed (top 8%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Boise State sits at the 3rd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Boise State
Most Similar Programs · Boise StateReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Boise State · 2018-present
Strong
80% home win rate vs 69% on the road. margin runs +9.4 better at home. Albertsons Stadium seats 36,387, averaging 95% full (34,518 attendance, 25 games reported).
Home40-10Away32-14
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines split the carries (194/349 vs 155/349) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Sire Gaines gets the goal line.
Dylan RileySire Gaines
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
p = 0.007 -- real, not noise
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
See it develop week by week
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Screened 4 claims, 1 survived, 3 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Latrell Caples (WR) and Matt Lauter (TE) split the targets (82/136 vs 54/136) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Latrell CaplesMatt Lauter
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Boise State’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Dirk Koetter / co-Nate Potter (2024) → co-Matt Miller / Nate Potter (2025)
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: co-Kane Ioane / Spencer Danielson (2021–2023) → Erik Chinander / co-Tyler Stockton (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 17 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How Boise State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Defense: Erik Chinander / co-Tyler Stockton (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 35% → 2025: 39% · 3-pt range · #176 of 189 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 35% → 2025: 31% · 4-pt range · #177 of 189 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 41% → 2025: 40% · 0-pt range · #189 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Boise State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.6% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 157-play sample) — mid-pack, 11 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=157 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 58.0%
Venue texture
56°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Boise State's 2014–2025 record is 115-41. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
310-110
since 1970 · 55 seasons · .738 win rate
HOME
171-37
AWAY
125-61
NEUTRAL
14-12
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program résumé
1CFP apps
The program, in full — read the essay
Boise State beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a hook-and-ladder on fourth-and-18 and a Statue of Liberty two-point conversion. In 2026 the Broncos join the rebuilt Pac-12 — and the question that never actually went away gets its truest test: do they belong?
The blue turf came first — a $750,000 carpet an athletic director dreamed up on a plane in 1986, trademarked, and turned into the most recognizable field in college football. Then came the program to match it. Chris Petersen went 92-12 over eight seasons, ran two undefeated Fiesta Bowl seasons, and built the archetype of the G5 disruptor: ordinary great guys, supremely prepared, willing to run the trick play in the biggest moment. Ian Johnson took the Statue of Liberty into the end zone to beat Oklahoma in overtime in 2007 — and then proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend on the field. Boise State finished that year as the country's only undefeated team, ranked fifth, with no lane to play for a title under the old system. The closed door is the program's permanent wound and its permanent fuel.
Ashton Jeanty ran for 2,497 yards in 2024 — the fourth-most in a season in FBS history — and the Broncos went to the first 12-team Playoff as a No. 3 seed, losing only to top-seeded Oregon. That season added a second canon entry to the blue turf's story. Spencer Danielson is now in year three. The 2025 season ended at 9-5, with a Mountain West title and a chastening 38-10 LA Bowl loss to Washington. The offseason fact that moved belief in Boise: the program leaves the Mountain West for the rebuilt Pac-12 in 2026, a power-adjacent conference with the real-competition schedule the program has always needed and never been able to consistently access.
The 2026 Pac-12 season is the test the giant-slayer has been building toward for two decades. Not a cupcake-laden non-conference schedule with one marquee game — a full league slate against programs with resources, recruiting depth, and no motivation to schedule Boise at home. The question 2026 will answer: whether Danielson's Broncos are a Pac-12 contender or a program that performed best at the ceiling of the Mountain West. The blue turf will be the same. The competition will not.
How they play
OKG football — ordinary great guys, supremely prepared, out-scheming more-talented rosters through preparation and the willingness to run the trick play in the highest-stakes moment. Petersen built the template; Danielson inherited it. Scheme-wise, a balanced attack with RPO concepts and a defensive system built on gap discipline and effort-over-athleticism principles. The home-field advantage at Albertsons Stadium — the blue turf, the altitude, the crowd that knows the game's history — is a genuine weapon that the program has defended at one of the best home win rates in the country.
Steady
Boise State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
CFP Era · Boise State
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-5 · AP #25
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-5 · AP #25Ranked (25-16)
Boise State: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Pac-12 Standing · 2025
3rd in the Pac-12
Boise State is 3rd in the Pac-12 at 2-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 4-1 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 3-1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 2-2 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 2-3 |
| 5 | Oregon State | 1-2 |
| 6 | Utah State | 1-2 |
| 7 | Colorado State | 1-3 |
| 8 | Texas State | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Boise State
Coaching Era · Boise StateSpencer Danielson
Spencer Danielson has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Era Spencer Danielson · 2023–presentPrev: Andy Avalos (2021–2022)OC: Nate Potter / co-Zak HillPrev OC: co-Matt Miller / Nate Potter (2025)DC: Erik Chinander / co-Terrence BrownPrev DC: Erik Chinander / co-Tyler Stockton (2024–2025)
4
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Blue Turf
since 1986
Albertsons Stadium's blue turf — installed in 1986, the first non-green turf in college football — is the program's permanent visual identity. Every flyover photograph confirms Boise State exists. Visiting teams cite the blue field as the most-disorienting first-quarter visual in CFB.
2007 Fiesta Bowl Statue of Liberty
since 2007
The Statue of Liberty 2-point conversion in overtime of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl vs Oklahoma — Ian Johnson, Vinny Perretta — is the most-replayed G5 trick play of the CFP era. The 43-42 OT win + the postgame proposal turned Boise State into a national-recognition program.
Smurf Turf Identity
since 1986
Bronco fans embrace the 'Smurf' label that opposing fans coined as a slur for the blue turf + small school + non-blueblood combination. The reclamation became permanent identity: 'be the smurf' is now affirmation, not insult.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 2007 Fiesta Bowl
beat Oklahoma 43-42 in OT — a hook-and-ladder on 4th-and-18 to force overtime, then the Statue of Liberty two-point conversion to win; Boise finished as the nation's only undefeated team, No. 5 AP, its highest ranking ever
Miracle
The 2024 Playoff run
Jeanty's historic season carried a fifth Mountain West title and the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff — the only loss to No. 1 Oregon
Moment of the Year · Boise State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Boise State · 2025Postseason · Lost 10-38 at Washington
Week 16 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 4-5
Most recent: 2025 — loss 38-10 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
20252024202320222019
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
6 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
6
picks · 1 R1
#6
Ashton Jeanty
Running Back · 2025 · Las Vegas · #1/310 final season
#111
Kage Casey
Offensive Tackle · 2026 · Denver
#148
Khalil Shakir
Wide Receiver · 2022 · Buffalo · #18/468 final season
#71 all-time · 6 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Boise State’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Mike Sanford2015 · Eliah Drinkwitz2016 · co-Zak Hill / co-Scott Huff2017–2018 · co-Zak Hill2019 · co-Eric Kiesau / co-Zak Hill2020 · Eric Kiesau2021–2022 · Tim Plough2023 · Bush Hamdan2024 · Dirk Koetter / co-Nate Potter2025 · co-Matt Miller / Nate Potter
Hired for 2026: Nate Potter / co-Zak Hill — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Marcel Yates2016–2018 · Andy Avalos2019–2020 · co-Spencer Danielson / co-Jeff Schmedding2021–2023 · co-Kane Ioane / Spencer Danielson2024–2025 · Erik Chinander / co-Tyler Stockton
Hired for 2026: Erik Chinander / co-Terrence Brown — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Average 2025 continuity (58% back) — qb room anchors it, offense is the stress point.
The portal upgraded the RB room but opened a hole at P.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Boise State converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
2.7k
[Postgame Thread] USF Defeats Boise State 34-7
1.6k
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Boise State 51-17
1.6k
[Postgame Thread] Boise State Defeats BYU 26-17
1.4k
[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats Boise State 36-31
525
[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats Boise State 18-16
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site