Boise State 32-7 Western Michigan (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Boise State · Western Michigan

Boise State3-132

Western Michigan2-27Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich. · Crowd 29,700

Boise State beat Western Michigan 32-7.

We had Western Michigan favored. Boise State won.

Next: Boise State beat Utah State 37-18, Sat Oct 3

Next: Western Michigan beat Buffalo 20-17, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

Yeah... I'm gonna say it. South Dakota could probably beat Michigan.

Q3 8:05 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boise State a 34% chance, and the closing betting line (Boise State was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

Favored the whole way: Boise State never fell below 66%.

Western Michigan never had better than a 34% chance.

FinalBoise State 32-7 Western MichiganBoise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q1 11:33Madsen 34-yd TD pass to Wagner, Boise State goes ahead 8-0Boise State 73% → 84% (+11)

The play that swung it

1Q1 11:33Madsen 34-yd TD pass to Wagner, Boise State goes ahead 8-0Western Michigan 27% → 16% (−11)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 8:05Madsen passes to Ford for a touchdown, extending Boise State's lead to 22-0Quoted at the top of the page.
Q4 12:40Boise State fans criticize Lowry's interception and Riley's penaltyPlease take Riley outr/CFB game thread

Boise State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Boise State -8.5), at 66% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Western Michigan or Boise State flair (50 and 806); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Boise State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Boise State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Western Michigan on 1 of its 9.

Boise State’s drives are teal, Western Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Western Michigan’s side

Western Michigan’s best moment: 53-yd punt (Q2 1:44). It lifted Western Michigan’s win chance by 10 points.

How Western Michigan fans took it: “GG, Idaho bros. Rank Boise, you cowards!” r/CFB game thread

“Two point conversion successful - 8-0 Boise! Let's go!”

A Boise State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Boise State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 12%.

Make the playoff

Boise State · won8% → ▲12%

Western Michigan · lost7% → ▼3%

Win the conference

Boise State · won23% → ▲25%

Western Michigan · lost46% → ▼45%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7

Boise State covered −8.5 by 16.5. The total, 39, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	Boise State	Western Michigan
Total yards	377	223
Passing	16 of 23, 204 yds	15 of 29, 110 yds
Rushing	42 for 173 yds	22 for 113 yds
First downs	21	12
Third down	10 of 14	2 of 11
Fourth down	0 of 0	0 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	5 for 58 yds	3 for 35 yds
Time of possession	36:46	23:14

Boise State leaders

Passing Maddux Madsen 16 of 23, 204 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Dylan Riley 28 for 138 yds, 1 TD; Maddux Madsen 4 for 29 yds
Receiving Matt Wagner 7 for 94 yds, 2 TD; Rasean Jones 3 for 39 yds

Western Michigan leaders

Passing Broc Lowry 15 of 28, 110 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Trey Petty 2 for 41 yds; Emazon Littlejohn 2 for 26 yds
Receiving Jalen Buckley 4 for 29 yds; Ofa Mataele 2 for 19 yds

No rain and calm

70° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the northeast, gusts to 12

September game-day temperatures at Waldo Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left3:36 p.m.

Boise State 0, Western Michigan 0 · Western Michigan 34% to win

no rain · wind 3 mph from the north-northeast · 70°

Riley 3-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Kalamazoo airport, 4.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Boise State · 2-1

Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 38-24 vs South Dakota #107 of 668

won by 14 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 38-20 vs Memphis #91 of 668

won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 27-34 @ OregonTop 25 #2 of 668

lost by 7 as a 24.5-point underdog

Last three games

Western Michigan · 2-1

Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 27th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-21 @ Rice #147 of 668

won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 49-14 vs Monmouth #158 of 668

won by 35 as a 29.5-point favorite

L 12-13 @ MichiganTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 1 as a 27.5-point underdog

Week by week

Western Michigan

Wk 1Lat Michigan12-13
Wk 2Wvs Monmouth49-14
Wk 3Wat Rice28-21

Boise State

Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34
Wk 2Wvs Memphis38-20
Wk 3Wvs South Dakota38-24

Power rating by week

Western Michigan is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Boise State’s success rate against Western Michigan, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Boise State’s success rate against Western Michigan’s defense
Boise State offense, 85th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 22nd
Boise State’s explosive plays against Western Michigan’s defense
Boise State offense, 46th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 85th
Western Michigan’s rushing EPA against Boise State’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 75th percentile · Boise State defense, 29th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Boise StateWestern Michigan

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Boise State fans are in a better mood than Western Michigan fans (49th vs 2nd among FBS fanbases), even with Western Michigan favored.

Boise State favored by 8.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Boise State by 8.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Boise State.

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 70° at kickoff.

Boise State at Western Michigan · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo

70°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
99weather score, Comfortable

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Waldo Stadium that day, a noon, 12:45 pm, 2 pm or 5 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 99 at 3:30 pm.

noon: 100, Ideal
12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
2 pm: 100, Ideal
3:30 pm: 99, Comfortable (this game)
4 pm: 99, Comfortable
5 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 99, Comfortable
7 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Western Michigan is worth +3.8 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 44th percentile.

61% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (23-15 home, 22-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,541 miles to get here.

Boise State beats Western Michigan 32-7