Memphis at Boise State
Fan take
Memphis fans
Boise State fans
How they got here
Last two games
Memphis · 2-0
Picked #110 in the preseason · now #113.
Two straight wins, capped by a 6-point win over UNLV as a 5-point underdog.
W 42–24 vs Arkansas State #153 of 669
won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 27–21 @ UNLV #90 of 669
won by 6 as a 5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Boise State · 9-5
Picked #46 in the preseason · now #15 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10–38 @ WashingtonTop 25 #12 of 668
lost by 28 as a 10-point underdog
W 38–21 vs UNLV #57 of 668
won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 25–24 @ Utah State #89 of 668
won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 49–21 vs Colorado State #185 of 668
won by 28 as a 17-point favorite
L 7–17 @ San Diego State #57 of 668
lost by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7–30 vs Fresno State #96 of 668
lost by 23 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 24–3 @ Nevada #176 of 668
won by 21 as a 21-point favorite
W 56–31 vs UNLV #92 of 668
won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 41–25 vs New Mexico #108 of 668
won by 16 as a 15.5-point favorite
L 7–28 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 668
lost by 21 as a 21.5-point underdog
W 47–14 vs App State #146 of 668
won by 33 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 49–37 @ Air Force #92 of 668
won by 12 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 51–14 vs Eastern Washington #149 of 668
won by 37 as a 33-point favorite
L 7–34 @ South FloridaTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 27 as a 4.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Boise State projected #12 seed
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2023 · Boise State won the last meeting
- 2026Boise State 38–20
- 2023Memphis 35–32
Best players
Memphis
- Jaylin Carter (RB) · 375 rushing yards
- Hunter Tipton (TE) · 291 receiving yards
- Zach Ruffin (LB) · 24 tackles
Boise State
- Dylan Riley (RB) · 256 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 122nd (+50000)
- Boen Phelps (LB) · 16 tackles
- Travis Anderson (DB) · 16 tackles
The line, and the room
Memphis fans are feeling better about their season (97th percentile) than Boise State fans are (62nd) — even with Boise State favored here.
Home −9.5 · O/U 54.5
Conditions
86°F · 6 mph wind · Clear
Boise State is worth +4.0 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
78% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (36–10 home, 32–15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 80 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,510 miles to get here.
Memphis 20 – Boise State 38
Called it — picked Boise State to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 23:37 — 25 comments, 5.0× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 21:00–00:30 UTC (656 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Hunter Tipton (Memphis): 9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD
Top 0.1% receiving yards game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Boise State
- Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34
Memphis
- Wk 1Wat UNLV27-21
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas State42-24
Trajectory
Boise State handled Memphis 38-20, matching the pregame favorite.