South Dakota · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · South Dakota · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · South Dakota2025 Johansen arrival
South Dakota goes 10-5 (6-2 MVFC, second place) under new head coach Travis Johansen in his first year
Miracle
South Dakota10-5Hope-Doping·Offseason
South Dakota is the Coyotes rising under new coach Travis Johansen — a 10-5 season (6-2 MVFC) in his first year proves the program belongs at the top of the Missouri Valley.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
Fans here believe plenty of skeptics thought South Dakota would struggle with a new coach. Instead, Travis Johansen took a program that was down and brought it to 10-5 in year one. The Coyotes are kno…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Central Connecticut · Sat Aug 29 · 18:00 UTC
The experience
South Dakota is the Coyotes rising under new coach Travis Johansen — a 10-5 season (6-2 MVFC) in his first year proves the program belongs at the top of the Missouri Valley.
The Coyotes hold the line.
South Dakota · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 8-4
Base 10-2
Ceiling 12-0
floor8-4Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base10-2Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling12-0Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 8-2
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Central Connecticut · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on South Dakota
—
The Coyotes hold the line.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go South Dakota"
— South Dakota fanbase · recurring line
24 mentions · sample growing
Fanbase Health Index · South Dakota · medium confidence
Growing (62)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 10-5 (67% win rate)67
Volume — 24 effective signal-N58
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
South Dakota · 2025 schedule & results10-5Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 56% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #106 | #50 | +13.5 | @Iowa State | L 7–55 117 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #96 | #191 | -17 | @Lamar | L 13–20 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #114 | #252 | -21.5 | Northern Colorado | W 24–17 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #132 | #194 | -17 | Drake | W 42–21 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #123 | #106 | +25.5 | @North Dakota State | L 13–51 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #134 | #262 | — | Murray State | W 49–24 | 3-3 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #129 | #230 | -15.5 | @Indiana State | W 19–14 | 4-3 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #137 | #231 | -6.5 | @Northern Iowa | W 17–14 | 5-3 | 3-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #140 | #160 | -3.5 | Illinois State | L 13–21 | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #149 | #77 | +13.5 | North Dakota | W 26–21 | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #141 | #117 | +7.5 | South Dakota State | W 24–17 | 7-4 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #142 | #158 | +4.5 | @Southern Illinois | W 53–51 | 8-4 | 6-1 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 14 | Nov 29 | #129 | #152 | -21 | Drake | W 38–17 | 9-4 | 6-1 |
| 15 | Dec 6 | #106 | #102 | — | @Mercer | W 47–0 | 10-4 | 6-1 |
| 16 | Dec 13 | #83 | #67 | +7.5 | @Montana | L 22–52 | 10-5 | 6-1 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13 | @Montana | L 22–52 | — | — | — | +0.137 | 37.5% | 152.2% | Blowout loss |
| Dec 6 | @Mercer | W 47–0 | — | — | — | +0.437 | 42.6% | 180.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 29 | Drake | W 38–17 | — | — | — | +0.543 | 52.1% | 141.9% | |
| Nov 15 | @Southern Illinois | W 53–51 | — | — | — | +0.334 | 48.8% | 115.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | South Dakota State | W 24–17 | — | — | — | +0.173 | 51.5% | 91.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | North Dakota | W 26–21 | — | — | — | -0.016 | 40.4% | 107.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | Illinois State | L 13–21 | — | — | — | +0.228 | 45.7% | 101.6% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Northern Iowa | W 17–14 | — | — | — | +0.056 | 37.5% | 124.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 11 | @Indiana State | W 19–14 | — | — | — | +0.081 | 36.5% | 135.3% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Murray State | W 49–24 | — | — | — | +0.632 | 64.5% | 122.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | @North Dakota State | L 13–51 | — | — | — | +0.025 | 43.5% | 116.8% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 20 | Drake | W 42–21 | — | — | — | +0.544 | 58.2% | 138.3% | |
| Sep 13 | Northern Colorado | W 24–17 | — | — | — | +0.271 | 44.4% | 136.5% | One-score win |
| Aug 30 | @Iowa State | L 7–55 | 208 | 2 | 24:42 | +0.027 | 30.0% | 141.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (14 games) | 208 | 2.0 | +0.248 | 45.2% | 129.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of South Dakota's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.25; 94th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.28 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · South Dakota · 2018-present
Elite
73% home win rate vs 39% on the road. margin runs +11.7 better at home. DakotaDome seats 9,100, averaging 77% full (6,976 attendance, 15 games reported).
Home33-12Away17-26
FCS Program Prestige · South Dakota
National Program
All-Time Record
98-188-4
since 1899 · 84 seasons · .337 win rate
HOME
65-34-3
AWAY
31-150-1
NEUTRAL
2-4
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
2000s
2010s
2020s
MVFC Standing · 2025
1st in the MVFC
South Dakota sits at the top of the MVFC at 6-1. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota | 6-1 |
| 2 | Illinois State | 5-2 |
| 3 | North Dakota | 5-2 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 5-2 |
| 5 | South Dakota State | 4-3 |
| 6 | Southern Illinois | 4-3 |
| 7 | Indiana State | 1-6 |
| 8 | Northern Iowa | 1-6 |
| 9 | Murray State | 1-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · South Dakota · 2025
Moment of the Year · South Dakota · 2025Lost 7-55 at Iowa State
Week 1 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023-2024): 1-2
Most recent: 2024 — loss 31-17 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-2.
202420232023
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2024–2024
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#227
Myles Harden
Cornerback · 2024 · Cleveland
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