North Dakota at South Dakota
North Dakota (6‑2) travels to South Dakota (6‑2), with South Dakota favored by 2.5. The model gives South Dakota a 69% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
North Dakota · 6-2
Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 108th now, up 15 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over South Dakota State as a 14-point underdog.
Last three games
South Dakota · 6-2
Rated 121st in our preseason ratings, 92nd now, up 29 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 48-20 @ Murray State No. 261 of 668 teams
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 31-10 vs Southern Illinois No. 171 of 668 teams
won by 21 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 44-14 vs Indiana State No. 210 of 668 teams
won by 30 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-23 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut No. 189 of 668 teams
won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
North Dakota
- North Dakota is 1 game back in MVFC with 3 left to make it up.
- North Dakota won the Division II national championship in 2001 and joined the FCS in 2008, building a steady presence in the MVFC while playing in the shadow of their in-state rival NDSU's dynasty -- and now facing the prospect of losing that annual game as North Dakota State departs for the FBS in 2026.
South Dakota
- South Dakota is 1 game back in MVFC with 3 left to make it up.
- South Dakota is coming off a 28-point win.
The series
South Dakota leads the series 6-4
10 meetings since 2009 · South Dakota has won the last 3
- 2025South Dakota 26-21
- 2024South Dakota 42-36
- 2023South Dakota 14-10
- 2022North Dakota 28-19
- 2021South Dakota 20-13
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
North Dakota
The chipThe chip is never being the dominant program in your own state, never winning the in-state trophy, and now watching the one rival that made the game worth playing leave for a bigger stage. If North Dakota can't beat North Dakota State at the FCS level, how does it compete when NDSU has moved on to the FBS?
What this game touches
The Nickel Trophy, retired after 2003 -- and the series interrupted twice. North Dakota and North Dakota State played under the Nickel Trophy for decades in Division II, a trophy that was retired after 2003 when both programs pursued the FCS reclassification that ultimately split them. When they reunited in the MVFC in 2020, the trophy remained retired and now sits in the North Dakota Heritage Center in Bismarck. The wound is not losing the rivalry but watching it be defined by realignment: shelved in 2004 when NDSU first left, restored without trophy in 2015, and now ending again as NDSU departs for the Mountain West in 2026.
South Dakota
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe plenty of skeptics thought South Dakota would struggle with a new coach. Instead, Travis Johansen took a program that was down and brought it to 10-5 in year one. The Coyotes are knocking on the MVFC elite's door.
What this game touches
The coaching transition succeeded. South Dakota brought in Travis Johansen as a new head coach and the program immediately responded with a 10-5 season and a 6-2 MVFC record (second place). For a program that had struggled previously, this is proof that the change was right.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on South Dakota’s chances here.
South Dakota favored by 2.5 · Total 56.5
South Dakota by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
South Dakota’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Home field
South Dakota is worth +4.9 points (±9.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
57% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (4-3 home, 2-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.0 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 354 miles to get here.
Week by week
South Dakota
- Wk 3Lat Boise State24-38
- Wk 4Lat Youngstown State28-47
- Wk 5Wvs Indiana State44-14
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Illinois31-10
- Wk 7Wat Murray State48-20
North Dakota
- Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34
- Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35
- Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
- Wk 6Lat Northern Iowa17-24
- Wk 7Wvs South Dakota State21-10
Power rating by week
South Dakota is rated 1.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Dakota2nd3-1
- North Dakota3rd3-1