Indiana State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Indiana State · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Indiana State2025 basement finish
Indiana State ties for last in MVFC with 1-7 conference record, testing the fanbase's patience with the rebuild
Wound
Indiana State3-9Hope-Doping·Offseason
Indiana State is the Sycamores grinding through a rebuild under Curt Mallory — a program tied for last in the Missouri Valley but fighting for the next winning phase.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
The MVFC is tough, but Indiana State's struggle is real — 1-7 in conference is a call for change. The fanbase is waiting for Mallory to prove the program is on the rise, not in permanent decline.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Southeast Missouri State · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Indiana State is the Sycamores grinding through a rebuild under Curt Mallory — a program tied for last in the Missouri Valley but fighting for the next winning phase.
The Sycamores bide their time.
Indiana State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 1-11
Base 3-9
Ceiling 6-6
floor1-11Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base3-9Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling6-6Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 1-9
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Southeast Missouri State · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Indiana State
—
The Sycamores bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Sycamores."
— Indiana State fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Indiana State · medium confidence
Stable (42)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 3-9 (25% win rate)44
Volume — 2 effective signal-N39
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Indiana State · 2025 schedule & results3-9Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 60% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #212 | #383 | — | McKendree | W 41–24 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #250 | #230 | -3.5 | Eastern Illinois | W 38–14 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 12 | #236 | #39 | +47.5 | @Indiana | L 0–73 118 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #225 | #137 | +21 | @Montana | L 20–63 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #220 | #132 | — | @Southern Illinois | L 27–55 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #230 | #129 | +15.5 | South Dakota | L 14–19 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #227 | #63 | +33.5 | North Dakota State | L 7–38 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #233 | #86 | +30 | @North Dakota | L 17–46 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #234 | #96 | +31 | @South Dakota State | W 24–12 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #212 | #152 | +10.5 | Illinois State | L 20–52 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #229 | #146 | +20.5 | @Youngstown State | L 29–48 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #229 | #273 | -13 | Murray State | L 17–31 | 3-9 | 1-6 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Murray State | L 17–31 | — | — | — | +0.233 | 36.8% | 158.7% | |
| Nov 15 | @Youngstown State | L 29–48 | — | — | — | +0.263 | 36.5% | 196.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | Illinois State | L 20–52 | — | — | — | +0.112 | 32.1% | 149.1% | Blowout loss |
| Nov 1 | @South Dakota State | W 24–12 | — | — | — | -0.075 | 35.4% | 139.6% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @North Dakota | L 17–46 | — | — | — | -0.252 | 26.4% | 140.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | North Dakota State | L 7–38 | — | — | — | -0.057 | 30.2% | 91.8% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | South Dakota | L 14–19 | — | — | — | +0.134 | 25.0% | 182.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Southern Illinois | L 27–55 | — | — | — | +0.148 | 43.0% | 116.6% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 20 | @Montana | L 20–63 | — | — | — | +0.251 | 28.1% | 200.5% | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Indiana | L 0–73 | 77 | 0 | 26:08 | -0.237 | 20.0% | 103.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 28 | McKendree | W 41–24 | — | — | — | +0.201 | 49.4% | 106.4% | Best success rate |
| Season average (11 games) | 77 | 0.0 | +0.066 | 33.0% | 144.2% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Indiana State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.07; 34th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.20 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Indiana State · 2018-present
Strong
45% home win rate vs 22% on the road. margin runs +12.6 better at home. Memorial Stadium seats 12,764, averaging 29% full (3,645 attendance, 12 games reported).
Home18-22Away9-31
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 28 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Indiana State
Power Program
All-Time Record
142-271-1
since 1925 · 59 seasons · .342 win rate
HOME
94-93
AWAY
47-171-1
NEUTRAL
1-7
1920s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
MVFC Standing · 2025
7th in the MVFC
Indiana State is 7th of 9 in the MVFC at 1-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota | 6-1 |
| 2 | Illinois State | 5-2 |
| 3 | North Dakota | 5-2 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 5-2 |
| 5 | South Dakota State | 4-3 |
| 6 | Southern Illinois | 4-3 |
| 7 | Indiana State | 1-6 |
| 8 | Northern Iowa | 1-6 |
| 9 | Murray State | 1-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Indiana State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Indiana State · 2025Lost 0-73 at Indiana
Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
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