Indiana State at Illinois State
Indiana State (2‑5) at Illinois State (5‑2) — Illinois State is favored by 22.5. The model gives Illinois State a 93% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Indiana State · 2-5
Rated 219th in our preseason ratings, 226th now.
Three straight losses.
L 14-44 @ South Dakota No. 109 of 668 teams
lost by 30 as a 16.5-point underdog
W 39-16 vs Valparaiso No. 253 of 668 teams
won by 23 as a 22.5-point favorite
W 42-35 @ Eastern Illinois No. 234 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 3-point favorite
L 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State No. 232 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite
Last three games
Illinois State · 5-2
Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 118th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)
What’s at stake
Indiana State
- Indiana State is 4 games back in MVFC with 4 left to make it up.
- Indiana State is still shaking off a 33-point loss.
Illinois State
- Illinois State is 3 games back in MVFC with 4 left to make it up.
- Illinois State is coming off a 21-point win.
The series
Illinois State leads the series 22-11
33 meetings since 1975 · Illinois State has won the last 4
- 2025Illinois State 52-20
- 2024Illinois State 31-19
- 2023Illinois State 44-7
- 2022Illinois State 27-21
- 2021Indiana State 15-10
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Indiana State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsThe MVFC is tough, but Indiana State's struggle is real — 1-7 in conference is a call for change. The fanbase is waiting for Mallory to prove the program is on the rise, not in permanent decline.
What this game touches
The MVFC collapse. Indiana State's 3-9 record (1-7 MVFC) in 2025 represents years of struggle in a conference full of stronger programs. Curt Mallory is in year eight and the Sycamores are still looking for the turnaround moment.
Illinois State
The chipThe Bison beat Illinois State in 2014. In 2025, the Redbirds traveled to Fargo as a 23-point underdog, broke a 14-game losing streak with two late TDs, and ended NDSU's FCS dynasty era 29-28. The fanbase carries that second victory as vindication — but the 35-34 OT loss to Montana State in the championship game keeps the wound fresh and real.
What this game touches
The 2014 Championship Loss to NDSU and the One-Point OT Loss in 2026. Illinois State reached the FCS Championship Game in 2014 and lost to North Dakota State. Eleven years later, they returned to the championship game after an unprecedented run of four consecutive road playoff wins, beat NDSU 29-28 in the second round, but fell 35-34 in overtime to Montana State on January 5, 2026. The wound is unfinished business.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Illinois State’s chances here.
Illinois State favored by 22.5 · Total 57.5
Illinois State by 22.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Illinois State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 412 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Home field
Illinois State is worth −4.4 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.
14% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (1-6 home, 4-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.6 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 112 miles to get here.
Week by week
Illinois State
- Wk 2Wat Northern Illinois28-24
- Wk 3Wvs Eastern Illinois49-13
- Wk 4Lat Northern Iowa21-28
- Wk 5Lvs South Dakota State14-31
- Wk 7Wat Southern Illinois35-14
Indiana State
- Wk 2Wat Eastern Illinois42-35
- Wk 3Wvs Valparaiso39-16
- Wk 4Lvs North Dakota35-42
- Wk 5Lat South Dakota14-44
- Wk 6Lvs Youngstown State24-57
Power rating by week
Illinois State is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Illinois State6th1-2
- Indiana State9th0-3