Western Illinois · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Western Illinois · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Western Illinois2024
MVFC departure
Western Illinois leaves the Missouri Valley and joins the Big South-OVC, marking the end of an era and the beginning of a new program identity
Heartbreak
Western Illinois4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Western Illinois is the historic Leatherneck program that left the Missouri Valley after two decades and joined the Big South-OVC, rebuilding its identity in a new conference.
Standard GapA historic MVFC program with decades of Valley tradition vs the challeng…
Western Illinois spent decades competing in the Missouri Valley, building tradition and identity in the Valley landscape. But after 2023, the Leathernecks departed the MVFC to join…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · vs Northwestern (IA) · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Western Illinois is the historic Leatherneck program that left the Missouri Valley after two decades and joined the Big South-OVC, rebuilding its identity in a new conference.
The Leathernecks keep the faith.
Western Illinois · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Northwestern (IA) · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Western Illinois
—
The Leathernecks keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Western Illinois"
— Western Illinois fanbase · recurring line
9 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Western Illinois · medium confidence
Stable (49)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 8 effective signal-N49
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#95 / 138 · 32nd pct23.1
Pts allowed/game#131 / 138 · 6th pct34.8
All 15 stats
Other
First down pass rate#60 / 215 · 73rd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#160 / 167 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.50.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team20.2/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Opp121.0/gm#19 / 166 · 89th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 3 · 100th pct
Opp83.3%83.3%#117 / 166 · 30th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#3 / 3 · 33rd pct
Points / drive
Team0.40.0/gm#158 / 167 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Opp3.90.3/gm#162 / 166 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Yards / drive
Team30.12.5/gm#148 / 167 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 3 · 100th pct
Opp50.94.2/gm#160 / 166 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Plays / drive
Team5.60.5/gm#157 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 3 · 33rd pct
Opp6.60.6/gm#95 / 166 · 43rd pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#3 / 3 · 33rd pct
Three-and-out rate
Team34.8%34.8%#162 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 3 · 100th pct
Opp9.1%9.1%#138 / 166 · 17th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#161 / 172 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct57.4%57.4%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Western Illinois · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 45% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #241 | #34 | +48.5 | @Illinois | L 3–52 59 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 5 | #170 | #46 | +31.5 | @Northwestern | L 7–42 70 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #186 | #256 | -17 | Valparaiso | W 51–30 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #205 | #164 | +13 | @Eastern Washington | L 31–52 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #228 | #234 | -2.5 | Eastern Illinois | L 23–31 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #242 | #98 | +35.5 | @Tennessee Tech | L 20–66 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #247 | #207 | +14.5 | @UT Martin | L 31–32 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #245 | #228 | +2 | Charleston Southern | L 24–29 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #245 | #225 | +3 | @Tennessee State | W 17–16 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #238 | #202 | +7.5 | Lindenwood | W 24–21 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #233 | #201 | +8 | Southeast Missouri State | L 17–22 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #235 | #165 | +13.5 | @Gardner-Webb | W 29–24 | 4-8 | 3-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Gardner-Webb | W 29–24 | — | — | — | +0.144 | 40.3% | 113.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | Southeast Missouri State | L 17–22 | — | — | — | -0.007 | 33.8% | 133.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Lindenwood | W 24–21 | — | — | — | +0.169 | 38.4% | 120.5% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | @Tennessee State | W 17–16 | — | — | — | -0.157 | 25.0% | 128.6% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 18 | Charleston Southern | L 24–29 | — | — | — | +0.114 | 46.2% | 121.7% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | @UT Martin | L 31–32 | — | — | — | +0.409 | 52.9% | 123.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Tennessee Tech | L 20–66 | — | — | — | +0.077 | 34.7% | 147.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 27 | Eastern Illinois | L 23–31 | — | — | — | +0.140 | 42.7% | 103.0% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Eastern Washington | L 31–52 | — | — | — | +0.081 | 36.6% | 119.9% | |
| Sep 5 | @Northwestern | L 7–42 | — | — | — | +0.039 | 30.0% | 148.3% | Most explosive |
| Aug 29 | @Illinois | L 3–52 | — | — | — | -0.176 | 23.1% | 140.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (11 games) | — | — | +0.076 | 36.7% | 127.4% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Western Illinois's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.08; 37th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.18 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Western Illinois · 2018-present
Strong
27% home win rate vs 13% on the road. margin runs +11.6 better at home. Hanson Field seats 16,368, averaging 15% full (2,505 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home10-26Away6-38
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 16% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Western Illinois
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
113-188
since 1973 · 51 seasons · .375 win rate
HOME
63-68
AWAY
50-110
NEUTRAL
0-10
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big South-OVC Standing · 2025
6th in the Big South-OVC
Western Illinois sits 6th of 8 in the Big South-OVC at 3-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Martin | 6-1 |
| 2 | Gardner-Webb | 5-2 |
| 3 | Lindenwood | 5-2 |
| 4 | Charleston Southern | 4-3 |
| 5 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-4 |
| 6 | Western Illinois | 3-4 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee State | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Western Illinois · 2025
Moment of the Year · Western Illinois · 2025Lost 3-52 at Illinois
Week 1 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
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