Southeast Missouri State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Southeast Missouri State · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Southeast Missouri State2018 FCS Playoff appearance
SEMO makes its first playoff appearance under Matukewicz, beginning the string of postseason contention
Southeast Missouri State4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Southeast Missouri State is the Redhawks program in the War for the Wheel tradition, a historic rival to Southern Illinois building FCS playoff contention under Tom Matukewicz.
Standard GapA competitive OVC-Big South program with four FCS playoff appearances in…
Southeast Missouri State has made the FCS playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2024 — a pattern of playoff appearances that creates expectation. The wound is the pressure to sustain t…
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Indiana State · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Southeast Missouri State is the Redhawks program in the War for the Wheel tradition, a historic rival to Southern Illinois building FCS playoff contention under Tom Matukewicz.
Quiet weeks in Redhawks country.
Southeast Missouri State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Indiana State · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Southeast Missouri State
—
Quiet weeks in Redhawks country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Redhawks."
— Southeast Missouri State fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Southeast Missouri State · low confidence
Stable (48)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Southeast Missouri State · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #171 | #107 | +15.5 | @Arkansas State | L 24–42 68 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #154 | #199 | -15.5 | North Alabama | W 30–21 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #178 | #109 | +31.5 | @North Dakota State | L 14–41 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #188 | #149 | +5.5 | Southern Illinois | L 31–59 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #216 | #190 | -3 | @UT Martin | L 10–34 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #228 | #229 | -16.5 | Tennessee State | W 28–12 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #217 | #214 | -7.5 | Eastern Illinois | W 42–13 | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #190 | #79 | +21.5 | @Tennessee Tech | L 23–42 | 3-5 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #191 | #222 | -10.5 | Charleston Southern | L 17–23 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #200 | #160 | +4.5 | @Gardner-Webb | L 24–27 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #201 | #233 | -8 | @Western Illinois | W 22–17 | 4-7 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #201 | #193 | +1.5 | Lindenwood | L 13–30 | 4-8 | 3-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Lindenwood | L 13–30 | — | — | — | +0.039 | 28.8% | 124.9% | |
| Nov 15 | @Western Illinois | W 22–17 | — | — | — | +0.108 | 37.0% | 139.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | @Gardner-Webb | L 24–27 | — | — | — | -0.038 | 26.7% | 188.1% | Most explosive |
| Nov 1 | Charleston Southern | L 17–23 | — | — | — | +0.086 | 37.7% | 140.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | @Tennessee Tech | L 23–42 | — | — | — | -0.012 | 38.1% | 120.9% | |
| Oct 18 | Eastern Illinois | W 42–13 | — | — | — | +0.162 | 31.2% | 178.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 11 | Tennessee State | W 28–12 | — | — | — | +0.275 | 42.7% | 156.3% | |
| Sep 27 | @UT Martin | L 10–34 | — | — | — | -0.043 | 32.8% | 120.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Southern Illinois | L 31–59 | — | — | — | +0.312 | 56.0% | 103.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @North Dakota State | L 14–41 | — | — | — | +0.034 | 28.1% | 146.6% | |
| Sep 6 | North Alabama | W 30–21 | — | — | — | +0.083 | 35.6% | 128.1% | |
| Aug 30 | @Arkansas State | L 24–42 | — | — | — | +0.193 | 40.8% | 141.6% | |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.100 | 36.3% | 140.8% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Southeast Missouri State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 35th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.19 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Southeast Missouri State · 2018-present
Elite
72% home win rate vs 39% on the road. margin runs +14.3 better at home. Houck Field seats 10,000, averaging 50% full (5,011 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home27-10Away18-28
Venue texture
69°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Southeast Missouri State
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
103-158
since 1906 · 37 seasons · .394 win rate
HOME
32-15
AWAY
35-106
NEUTRAL
36-37
1900s
1910s
1930s
1940s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big South-OVC Standing · 2025
5th in the Big South-OVC
Southeast Missouri State sits 5th of 8 in the Big South-OVC at 3-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Martin | 6-1 |
| 2 | Gardner-Webb | 5-2 |
| 3 | Lindenwood | 5-2 |
| 4 | Charleston Southern | 4-3 |
| 5 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-4 |
| 6 | Western Illinois | 3-4 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee State | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2024 FCS Playoff appearance
SEMO returns to the FCS playoffs, continuing the program's pattern of postseason success
Moment of the Year · Southeast Missouri State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Southeast Missouri State · 2025Won 28-12 vs Tennessee State
Week 7 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2024–2024
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#216
Ryan Flournoy
Wide Receiver · 2024 · Dallas
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