Western Illinois at Wisconsin
Fan take
Western Illinois fans
Wisconsin fans
How they got here
Last two games
Western Illinois · 1-1
Picked #228 in the preseason · now #157 — better than expected.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10–41 vs Illinois State #123 of 669
lost by 31 as a 20.5-point underdog
W 65–14 vs Northwestern (IA)
Last three games · 2025 season
Wisconsin · 4-8
Picked #87 in the preseason · now #44 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 17-point win over Illinois as a 9.5-point underdog.
L 7–17 @ Minnesota #78 of 668
lost by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 27–10 vs IllinoisTop 25 #47 of 668
won by 17 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 7–31 @ IndianaTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 24 as a 28-point underdog
W 13–10 vs WashingtonTop 25 #29 of 668
won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 7–21 @ OregonTop 25 #2 of 668
lost by 14 as a 31-point underdog
L 0–34 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668
lost by 34 as a 24.5-point underdog
L 0–37 vs IowaTop 25 #28 of 668
lost by 37 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 10–24 @ MichiganTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 14 as a 17-point underdog
L 10–27 vs Maryland #77 of 668
lost by 17 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 14–38 @ AlabamaTop 25 #11 of 668
lost by 24 as a 19.5-point underdog
W 42–10 vs Middle Tennessee #158 of 668
won by 32 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 17–0 vs Miami (OH) #32 of 668
won by 17 as a 18-point favorite
What’s at stake
Western Illinois
- Western Illinois needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Western Illinois is still shaking off a 27-point loss.
Wisconsin
- Wisconsin is coming off a 27-point win.
The series
Wisconsin leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 1991 · Wisconsin has won the last 4
- 2026Wisconsin 36–9
- 2014Wisconsin 37–3
- 2006Wisconsin 34–10
- 1991Wisconsin 31–13
Best players
Wisconsin
- Cooper Catalano (LB) · 22 tackles
- Mason Posa (LB) · 16 tackles
- Matthew Jung (S) · 16 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Wisconsin’s chances here.
Home −43.5 · O/U 53.5
Conditions
75°F · 7 mph wind · Clear
Wisconsin is worth +4.5 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.
64% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (32–18 home, 15–21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.8 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 191 miles to get here.
Western Illinois 9 – Wisconsin 36
Called it — picked Wisconsin to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 23:37 — 7 comments, 7.0× its usual pace.
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- BoxThe line
Cooper Catalano (Wisconsin): 13 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Wisconsin
- Wk 1Lat Notre Dame13-41
Western Illinois
- Wk 1Wvs Northwestern (IA)65-14
- Wk 1Lvs Illinois State10-41
Trajectory
Wisconsin beat Western Illinois 36-9 — exactly what the pregame pick had.