Big Ten · Ryan Day, year 9 (84-13) · Ohio Stadium · 102,780 · 100,564 avg in 2026
LastW 59–3 vs Kent State · Sat Sep 19 · Julian Sayin 241 pass yds, 2 TD
Nextvs Illinois · Sat Sep 26 · 12 pm ET · Ohio Stadium · Ohio State by 27 · series 70-30-4, won the last 10 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #4 | #161 | -51✓ | Ball State | W 56–3 132 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #4 | #5 | +2.5✓ | @Texas | L 23–24 141 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #1 | #132 | -52.5✓ | Kent State | W 59–3 121 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #1 | #71 | -27 | Illinois | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #1 | #19 | @Iowa | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Maryland | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Indiana | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @USC | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Oregon | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Northwestern | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Nebraska | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Michigan |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Kent State | W 59–3 | 527 | 2 | 30:21 | +0.292 | 55.4% | 128.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Texas | L 23–24 | 372 | 1 | 28:32 | +0.115 | 39.1% | 133.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Ball State | W 56–3 | 671 | 1 | 31:38 | +0.667 | 56.2% | 144.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 523 | 1.3 | +0.358 | 50.2% | 135.8% | ||||
Ohio State treats every autumn as a national-title mandate — and every November against Michigan as the real season, no matter what the trophy case says.
Fans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 12-2 · last season
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I enjoy seeing the investment they’re making in their facilities definitely shows their commitment to helping student-athletes succeed
Next Sep 26
vs Illinois · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
With Chris Henry Jr. (WR, #10 nationally) arriving, Ohio State's fifth straight top-5 class faces a rival Michigan with a top-12 haul — a program that still must prove it.
our readfront page
Ohio State enters 2026 — the gap between its No. 2 SP+ ranking and 12-2 record is the story Ryan Day has to answer in Big Ten this year.
our readbackground
Ohio State: the betting market's belief swinging.
our readdeveloping
Brandon Inniss is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
James Peoples sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
our readdeveloping
Jeremiah Smith is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Jeremiah Smith is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Bo Jackson gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
our readbackground
Bo Jackson does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
Brandon Inniss is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Carnell Tate is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
CJ Donaldson: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
CJ Donaldson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
our readbackground
Isaiah West: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
James Peoples: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Max Klare is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Ohio State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Ohio State enters 2026 rated No. 2 in 2025 SP+ (+30.1). An efficiency model in the top 10 means three straight years of elite tape. The schedule decides whether the field keeps agreeing. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 2190 of 17930 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (269 posts): 15% positive · 49% neutral · 36% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Ohio State signed a top-4 recruiting class. It is the program's fifth straight top-5 recruiting class. Top 4 means the talent case is made. Whether the staff develops it is the open question. The bulls are loud — the coverage treats this class as a program-level statement.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 511 of 17930 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (269 posts): 15% positive · 49% neutral · 36% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Ohio State is the Midwest's standing answer — the program that does not ask permission to be in the conversation.
The program ledger
since 2025Jayden Fielding sues NCAA for eligibility
Fielding handled kicking duties through a brutal 11-man NFL drain and Day needs every weapon returning — a lawsuit for a fifth year of eligibility is ugly, but the roster math makes it worth fighting.
Five-star RB commits to Tennessee over Ohio State
Day's class sits at #4 nationally and still couldn't hold a five-star backfield piece — 11 draft exits left real carries to distribute, and Tennessee just walked into that conversation and won it.
Florida State hires Ohio State OC
Losing an OC after 11 players drafted and a QB room mid-debate is a rough sequence — Day needs a smooth transition or the Sayin conversation gets louder fast.
Gallagher hired as DC
Day burned the whole DC search down and rebuilt it — after losing 11 to the draft, the Buckeyes needed a coordinator who owns a room, not one who manages it.
Five-star recruit commits to Ohio State
Eleven players drafted and the WR room still carrying question marks — Day locks in a five-star to patch the most visible gap before fall camp even becomes a conversation.
Ohio State releases final depth chart
Eleven draft picks gone and a top-4 class behind them — Day's final depth chart tells you which freshmen actually won jobs and which spots the rebuild hasn't filled yet.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
107 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
That is 7.7% of every high-school FBS signee OH produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Kent State is next. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Ohio State player grew up 294 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Ohio Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 116 of 120 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
15th percentile among FBS programs
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #2, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), to #10, Randy Johnson (Minneapolis Star Tribune).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Recovering 50% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
3 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Converting 19% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
3 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
The penalty battle is a wash: 16 penalties committed vs. 18 drawn on opponents.
135 penalty yards committed vs. 127 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Ohio State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026