Ohio State at USC
USC (6‑1) hosts Ohio State (6‑1). The market has Ohio State favored by 7.5. The model gives Ohio State a 78% shot. Ohio State’s passing offense is at the 92nd percentile; USC’s pass defense is at the 13th.
How they got here
Last three games
Ohio State · 6-1
Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 1st now.
Three straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
USC · 6-1
Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 23rd now.
2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Ohio State’s passing EPA against USC, 79 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio State’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 92nd percentile · USC defense, 13th
Ohio State’s EPA/play against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 88th percentile · USC defense, 33rd
Ohio State’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Ohio State offense, 74th percentile · USC defense, 28th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Ohio State projected #3 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
USC leads the series 13-10-1
24 meetings since 1937 · Ohio State won the last meeting
- 2017 · neutral siteOhio State 24-7
- 2009USC 18-15
- 2008USC 35-3
- 1990USC 35-26
- 1989USC 42-3
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Ohio State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is the rivalry, not the trophy.
USC
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has spent fifteen years hearing the program eulogized as a faded brand coasting on its zip code; they say the talent pipeline, the recruiting and the city were never the problem, and they're done being framed as a name that used to matter.
What this game touches
The Alamo Bowl overtime loss. An ascending 9-4 season ended with No. 16 USC blowing a fourth-quarter lead and falling to TCU 30-27 in overtime — the kind of one-score finish that, to a fanbase used to closing games, felt like proof the program isn't all the way back yet.
Best players
Ohio State
- Jeremiah Smith (WR) · 984 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 1st (+-125)
- Julian Sayin (QB) · 2,007 passing yards
- Earl Little II (S) · 38 tackles
USC
- Jayden Maiava (QB) · 2,045 passing yards — Heisman odds: 7th (+1750)
- Christian Pierce (S) · 40 tackles
- King Miller (RB) · 595 rushing yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Julian Sayin (QB) — Ohio State’s leading passer (2,007 passing yards) takes on USC’s pass defense (13th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (30th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Ohio State favored by 7.5 · Total 54.5
Ohio State by 7.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Ohio State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 100, noon Saturdays 93
Ohio State at USC · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 97, 7:30 pm 100.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.
70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,976 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
USC
- Wk 2Wvs Louisiana49-30
- Wk 3Wat Rutgers42-35
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon27-41
- Wk 5Wvs Washington25-21
- Wk 6Wat Penn State31-23
Ohio State
- Wk 3Wvs Kent State59-3
- Wk 4Wvs Illinois42-19
- Wk 5Wat Iowa31-14
- Wk 6Wvs Maryland45-16
- Wk 7Wat Indiana19-15
Power rating by week
Ohio State is rated 8.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- USC4th3-1
- Ohio State1st4-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Ohio State 24, USC 7Dec 29, 2017