FinalUSC 25-21 WashingtonUSC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalWashington 21-25 USCWashington lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 14:18InterceptionMaiava intercepted by Dillard-Allen at the UW19USC 74% → 53% (−21)
2Q4 1:174th and 3Williams 5-yd pass to RoebuckUSC 86% → 69% (−17)
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 14:18InterceptionMaiava intercepted by Dillard-Allen at the UW19Washington 26% → 47% (+21)
2Q4 1:174th and 3Williams 5-yd pass to RoebuckWashington 14% → 31% (+17)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 1:46A trick play resulted in a touchdown.DIRTY DIRTY TRICK. How dare they?!r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:53USC punts after penalty; fans mock discipline and praise kickBest punt of all time?r/CFB game thread
Q3 13:30USC fans lament soft tackling as Washington scores a touchdownWait so you’re telling me college football isn’t 2 hand touch?r/CFB game threadThat play showed these players are over it. Riley aint getting the locker room backr/CFB game thread
Q3 5:33Stewart returns a fumble for a touchdown as fans criticize Demond WilliamsDemond is assr/CFB game threadWilliams said “you can force me to play here but you can’t force me to play good”r/CFB game thread
Q3 2:22Fans call a defensive pass interference ruling on Washington an obvious offensive penaltyThat’s a game changing piss poor callr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 3:50Washington fans celebrate Demond Williams' 43-yard pass to LawsonSometimes Demond reminds everyone why we pay him $4Mr/CFB game threadAlright that was an amazing throwr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:02Washington fans celebrate Williams' deep pass as USC player Abasiri is injuredQuick! QB is slow to get up! TIME TO CELEBRATE USC!!!!r/CFB game thread
USC’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (USC -7.5), at 76% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a USC or Washington flair (1,160 and 1,300); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
USC fans
riley“That play showed these players are over it. Riley aint getting the locker room back”
Washington fans
fisch“Best case scenario --- UW wins this game, USC decides they want to Jedd Fisch as their next head coach. Everybody wins!”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, call, back, fire.
What it cost
USC’s chance to make the playoff rose from 28% to 31%.
Make the playoff
Washington · lost1% → 1%
USC · won28% → ▲31%
Win the conference
Washington · lost0% → 0%
USC · won7% → ▲8%
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
USC 25, Washington 21
Washington covered +7.5 by 3.5. The total, 46, stayed under 58.5.
Team totals
Washington
USC
Total yards
319
360
Passing
16 of 27, 203 yds
21 of 34, 245 yds
Rushing
33 for 116 yds
35 for 115 yds
First downs
15
21
Third down
1 of 12
5 of 14
Fourth down
3 of 4
2 of 2
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
10 for 74 yds
9 for 94 yds
Time of possession
25:02
34:58
Washington leaders
Passing Demond Williams Jr. 15 of 26, 198 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Brian Bonner Jr. 19 for 89 yds; Demond Williams Jr. 13 for 26 yds
Receiving Chris Lawson 5 for 82 yds; Decker DeGraaf 2 for 49 yds, 1 TD
USC leaders
Passing Jayden Maiava 21 of 34, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing King Miller 18 for 81 yds; Waymond Jordan 11 for 36 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Zach Williams 4 for 78 yds; Tanook Hines 5 for 51 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
94° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 62 other games played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 66° and 75°.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Washington · 3-1
Rated 26th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.
3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
USC is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Washington’s passing EPA against USC, 66 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Washington’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Washington offense, 79th percentile · USC defense, 13th
USC’s success rate against Washington’s defense
USC offense, 96th percentile · Washington defense, 58th
Washington’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Washington offense, 62nd percentile · USC defense, 28th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
WashingtonUSC
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
USC leads the series 52-32-4
88 meetings since 1923 · Washington has won the last 3
2024Washington 26-21
2023Washington 52-42
2019Washington 28-14
2016USC 26-13
2015Washington 17-12
Each line is USC’s chance to win through that meeting. USC is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
USC fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (11th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Model · 63%
Line · 73%
USC fans · 11th
Washington fans · 9th
USC favored by 7.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
USC by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Washington.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −10 → −7.5 · Total: 57.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 90° at kickoff.
Washington at USC · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles
90°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
69weather score, Rough
Roughestof the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's three kickoff times. At Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 90, against 69 at 4:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100)69Rough88Mixed90Comfortable
4:30 pm6:30 pm7:30 pm
4:30 pm: 69, Rough (this game)
6:30 pm: 88, Mixed
7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.
70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Washington · Q1 1:46Fumble return TDQ3 4:40
USC 25-21 Washington