No. 20 Iowa beats Washington 41-24

No. 20 Iowa5-141
Washington3-324Final
Fri, Oct 9 · Husky Stadium, Seattle, Wash. · Crowd 66,231

No. 20 Iowa beat Washington 41-24.

We had Iowa favored. It won.

Next: Iowa at Minnesota, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Iowa favored by 6.5

Next: Washington beat Purdue 38-26, Fri Oct 16

Top comment in the game thread

We want Ohio State again! (I am kidding, we do NOT want them again)

Q2 5:46 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Oct 9

How it swung

The turning point: Moulton 56-yd TD run, Iowa leads 13-0 (Q1, 0:10). Iowa went from 52% to 74% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

Iowa won by 17, after dipping to 37% in the first quarter.

Washington never had better than a 63% chance.

FinalIowa 41-24 WashingtonIowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaWon41-2412+22+14ScoresIowaWashingtonIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 5 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 29 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 0 comments a minuteIowa fans: 2 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 19 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 20 comments a minuteIowa fans: 26 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 21 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 7 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 0 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 10 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaWon41-2412ScoresIowaWashing…Iowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 5 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 29 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 0 comments a minuteIowa fans: 2 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 19 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 20 comments a minuteIowa fans: 26 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 21 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 7 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 0 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 10 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaLowest 0%Lost24-4112−22−14ScoresWashingtonIowaWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 0 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 10 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 5 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 29 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 0 comments a minuteIowa fans: 2 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 19 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 20 comments a minuteIowa fans: 26 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 21 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 7 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IowaLowest 0%Lost24-4112ScoresWashing…IowaWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 7 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 0 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 10 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 8 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 5 comments a minuteWashington fans: 1 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 4 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteWashington fans: 6 comments a minuteWashington fans: 2 comments a minuteWashington fans: 3 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 5 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 4 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 29 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 22 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 9 comments a minuteIowa fans: 0 comments a minuteIowa fans: 2 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 6 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 19 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 10 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 25 comments a minuteIowa fans: 15 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 12 comments a minuteIowa fans: 17 comments a minuteIowa fans: 18 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 20 comments a minuteIowa fans: 26 comments a minuteIowa fans: 14 comments a minuteIowa fans: 13 comments a minuteIowa fans: 21 comments a minuteIowa fans: 8 comments a minuteIowa fans: 7 comments a minuteIowa fans: 11 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:10Moulton 56-yd TD run, Iowa leads 13-0Iowa 52% → 74% (+22)
  2. 2Q2 9:05Hecklinski 20-yd TD pass to Vonnahme, Iowa leads 20-0Iowa 74% → 88% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:10Moulton 56-yd TD run, Iowa leads 13-0Washington 48% → 26% (−22)
  2. 2Q2 9:05Hecklinski 20-yd TD pass to Vonnahme, Iowa leads 20-0Washington 26% → 12% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 9:45Iowa fans worry Vonnahme is injured after his awkward touchdown runVonnahme is not even close to 100%.r/CFB game threadI wish we'd stop scheduling cupcake OOC teams like Washington smhr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 5:46Hecklinski throws touchdown pass to Vonnahme as Iowa fans celebrate the blowoutHecklinski looking downfield, trying to comprehend how he has two receivers wide open for a TDr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Iowa’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Washington -3), at 37% for Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Washington or Iowa flair (859 and 2,432); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Every drive

Iowa scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Washington on 4 of its 12.

Iowa’s drives are teal, Washington’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Iowa: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 33Field goalWashington: Punt, from 81 yards out to 85PuntIowa: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 8Field goalWashington: Punt, from 79 yards out to 72PuntIowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntWashington: Punt, from 85 yards out to 73PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownWashington: Punt, from 80 yards out to 72PuntQ2Iowa: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownWashington: Punt, from 75 yards out to 84PuntIowa: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownWashington: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 12Field goalIowa: Punt, from 65 yards out to 60PuntWashington: End of half, from 74 yards out to 42End of halfQ3Washington: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIowa: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownWashington: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Washington: Punt, from 75 yards out to 84PuntIowa: Punt, from 61 yards out to 43PuntWashington: Punt, from 99 yards out to 83PuntIowa: Punt, from 60 yards out to 55PuntWashington: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0Touchdown
“"He has more moves than a military family" \-RG3 LOL”
An Iowa fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIowa fansWashington fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Washington fans

fisch“Google searches for “Jedd Fisch buyout” are going to spike in the Seattle area tonight”

worse“That was bad, but Oregon is worse trust me. Scum of the earth, and their fans are even worse”

fire“Never seen a team implode so spectacularly like this team has. Fire Jedd.”

place“If you go to Pike Place Market, please don't throw fish......throw Fisch please!”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, run, getting, let.

What it cost

Iowa’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Iowa · won2% → ▲3%
Washington · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Iowa plays at Minnesota on Sat Oct 24 with a 3% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Iowa 41, Washington 24

Iowa covered +3 by 20. The total, 65, went over 41.5.

IowaWashingtonTotal yardsIowa 465Washington 317465317Passing yardsIowa 202Washington 320202320Rushing yardsIowa 263Washington -3263-3First downsIowa 22Washington 242224TurnoversIowa 0Washington 000Time of possessionIowa 28:19Washington 31:4128:1931:41
Team totalsIowaWashington
Total yards465317
Passing14 of 19, 202 yds34 of 51, 320 yds
Rushing38 for 263 yds25 for -3 yds
First downs2224
Third down3 of 97 of 18
Fourth down0 of 02 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties8 for 73 yds7 for 50 yds
Time of possession28:1931:41

Iowa leaders

  • Passing Jeremy Hecklinski 14 of 19, 202 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Kamari Moulton 26 for 208 yds, 2 TD; L.J. Phillips Jr. 10 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Reece Vander Zee 3 for 69 yds, 1 TD; DJ Vonnahme 2 for 44 yds, 2 TD

Washington leaders

  • Passing Elijah Brown 28 of 39, 251 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Brian Bonner Jr. 10 for 17 yds; Trevion Cooley 2 for 2 yds
  • Receiving Chris Lawson 8 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Rashid Williams 5 for 66 yds

No rain and calm

54° at kickoff · 0.00 in of rain · wind 4 mph from the east, gusts to 15

Game-day temperatures at Husky Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Washington favoredIowa favored0%Win chanceWashingtonRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Washington favoredIowa favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 0:10 left6:42 p.m.
Iowa 13, Washington 0 · Washington 26% to win
no rain · wind 3 mph from the east-northeast · 54°
Moulton 56-yd TD run, Iowa leads 13-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Seattle/boeing Fld airport, 8.3 miles away, and Renton Municipal airport, 12 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Iowa · 4-1

Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 15th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog.

Last three games

Washington · 3-2

Rated 26th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Washington

Wk 1: W 24-10 vs Washington State▲14Washingt…Wk 2: W 16-14 vs Utah State▲2Utah St.Wk 3: W 48-16 vs Eastern Washington▲32E. Washi…Wk 4: L 24-27 vs Minnesota▼3MinnesotaWk 5: L 21-25 at USC▼4USC
  • Wk 1Wvs Washington State24-10
  • Wk 2Wvs Utah State16-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Eastern Washington48-16
  • Wk 4Lvs Minnesota24-27
  • Wk 5Lat USC21-25

Iowa

Wk 1: W 40-0 vs Northern Illinois▲40N. Illin…Wk 2: W 16-13 vs Iowa State▲3Iowa St.Wk 3: W 55-0 vs Northern Iowa▲55N. IowaWk 4: W 20-19 at Michigan▲1MichiganWk 5: L 14-31 vs Ohio State▼17Ohio St.
  • Wk 1Wvs Northern Illinois40-0
  • Wk 2Wvs Iowa State16-13
  • Wk 3Wvs Northern Iowa55-0
  • Wk 4Wat Michigan20-19
  • Wk 5Lvs Ohio State14-31

Power rating by week

Iowa is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1185Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5WashingtonIowa

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Washington’s rushing EPA against Iowa, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Washington’s rushing EPA against Iowa’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Washington offense, 16th percentile · Iowa defense, 97th

  2. Washington’s success rate against Iowa’s defense

    42 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Washington offense, 50th percentile · Iowa defense, 92nd

  3. Washington’s explosive plays against Iowa’s defense

    17 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Washington offense, 62nd percentile · Iowa defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IowaWashington
EPA/play, offense
Iowa · 58Washington · 51
EPA/play, defense
Iowa · 82Washington · 71
Success rate, offense
Iowa · 67Washington · 50
Success rate, defense
Iowa · 92Washington · 58
Explosive-play rate, offense
Iowa · 47Washington · 62
Explosive-play rate, defense
Iowa · 79Washington · 49
Rush EPA, offense
Iowa · 55Washington · 16
Rush EPA, defense
Iowa · 97Washington · 83
Pass EPA, offense
Iowa · 61Washington · 79
Pass EPA, defense
Iowa · 23Washington · 42

The series

Iowa leads the series 4-3

7 meetings since 1937 · Iowa has won the last 2

Washington wonIowa won1937: Washington by 141963: Iowa by 101964: Iowa by 101981: Washington by 281990: Washington by 121995: Iowa by 202024: Iowa by 2419372024
  • 2024Iowa 40-16Washington lost 16-40 at Iowa. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 56%.
  • 1995 · neutral siteIowa 38-18
  • 1990 · neutral siteWashington 46-34
  • 1981 · neutral siteWashington 28-0
  • 1964Iowa 28-18

Each line is Washington’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (43rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 46%
  • Line · 60%
  • Washington fans · 9th
  • Iowa fans · 43rd

Washington favored by 3 · Total 41.5

How games like this usually go

Washington by 3, on the usual path until Q1 0:10

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Washington.

opened −1.5now −3

Spread: −1.5 → −3

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Washington is worth +3.9 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 46th percentile.

76% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (37-12 home, 20-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,556 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big Ten standings