Big 12 · Jimmy Rogers, year 1 (2-1) · Jack Trice Stadium · 61,500 · 51,098 avg in 2026
LastW 55–7 vs Bowling Green · Sat Sep 19 · Aiden Flora 194 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Nextvs Utah · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 pm ET · Jack Trice Stadium · Utah by 8 · series 5-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #162 | #226 | -29.5✗ | Southeast Missouri State | W 38–10 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #159 | #13 | +14✓ | @Iowa | L 13–16 112 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #138 | #135 | -22.5✓ | Bowling Green | W 55–7 116 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #114 | #25 | +8 | Utah | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #108 | #136 | West Virginia | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @BYU | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Arizona | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Oklahoma State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Baylor | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Cincinnati | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @UCF | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Kansas State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Bowling Green | W 55–7 | 507 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.319 | 50.0% | 132.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Iowa | L 13–16 | 255 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.075 | 29.1% | 111.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 38–10 | 303 | 1 | 23:08 | +0.245 | 35.4% | 176.5% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 355 | 0.7 | +0.213 | 38.2% | 140.0% | ||||
Iowa State spent a hundred years as the program that couldn't, then Matt Campbell made it matter — and in 2025 Ames had to watch the man who fixed everything pack up for Penn State.
The chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-4 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I felt like it was just me out there sometimes because of how much space there was
Next Sep 26
vs Utah · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Campbell's top-2 portal class in the Big 12 targets DL and IOL — diagnosing last year's 8-4 record while stabilizing a roster with just 58% production returning.
our readfront page
Matt Campbell enters his 8th season with an 8-4 record and a win total drop to 4.5, raising questions about sustaining Iowa State's beloved but fragile Big 12 identity.
our readdeveloping
Iowa State enters 2025 at No. 33 in SP+ — the 8-4 record under Matt Campbell in his sixth year raises the question of whether this leap is sustainable.
our readbackground
Jimmy Rogers, in his first season at Iowa State, inherits an 8-4 winning record but faces unease among fans who expect more from a program reshaping its identity.
our readdeveloping
Rogers, who previously coached at Washington State, inherits an 8-4 roster with 58% production returning — Iowa State’s love for its underdog identity clashes with the pressure to sustain a rare winning season.
our readdeveloping
Matt Campbell enters his 8th season at Iowa State with an 8-4 record and a fanbase at 52/100, signaling tension between recent progress and lingering doubts about long-term identity.
our readdeveloping
Carson Hansen converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
our readbackground
Chase Sowell is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Iowa State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Iowa State enters 2025 rated No. 33 in SP+ (+9.9). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 490 of 2868 board posts (17%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Iowa State signed a top-25 transfer-portal class — 48 additions headlined by Zane Flores (QB) from Oklahoma State and Jaylen Raynor (QB) from Arkansas State. It is a top-2 portal class in the Big 12 this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 133 of 2868 board posts (5%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Iowa State is the program that turned 'losing for 100 years' into one of the most-loved Big 12 stories of the 2020s.
The program ledger
since 2025Lipsey sues NCAA for fifth year
Win total already fell a full win this offseason — Lipsey forcing the NCAA's hand for a fifth year could be the difference between Rogers hitting 5 or staying stuck at 4, especially with WR depth under pressure after one draft exit.
Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1
SI already says he's undervalued in Big 12 QB rankings — Campbell making it official in the depth chart gives Raynor a chance to prove the doubters wrong in a top-33 SP+ offense.
Win total: 5.5 → 4.5 (▼1)
Win total dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Iowa State updates depth chart
First depth chart under Rogers is the real test — WR room under pressure, one draft exit, and a #54 class means Ames needs contributors to step into real roles fast, not just fill spots.
Iowa State depth chart projected
Rogers inheriting a defense with a new coordinator fingerprint and Pettaway already turning heads on watch lists — the real question mark is whether pressure at WR translates to a roster thin enough that books were right to shave a full win off the board.
Iowa State defensive depth chart revealed
Depth chart drops with a win total already slid to 4.5 — who's actually filling out Rogers' two-deep at WR is the real story inside this release.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 17 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
101 signees across 25 states, 2023-2026. IA leads the pull.
That is 24.7% of every high-school FBS signee IA produced over those cycles — second only to Iowa, 8 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Iowa State player grew up 309 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Jack Trice Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 122 of 126 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
57th percentile among FBS programs
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 60% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
3 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 20% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
2 interceptions of 10 disrupted passes (8 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Roughly even on flags: 14 penalties committed vs. 16 drawn on opponents.
140 penalty yards committed vs. 124 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Iowa State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026