Iowa State at Baylor
Baylor (5‑3) hosts Iowa State (4‑4). The market has Baylor favored by 10. The model gives Baylor a 78% shot. Iowa State’s offense is at the 16th percentile on success rate; Baylor’s defense is at the 93rd.
How they got here
Last three games
Iowa State · 4-4
Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 108th now, up 54 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 2-point win over Oklahoma State as a 10-point underdog.
Last three games
Baylor · 5-3
Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 23rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Baylor, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Iowa State’s success rate against Baylor’s defense
Iowa State offense, 16th percentile · Baylor defense, 93rd
Baylor’s explosive plays against Iowa State’s defense
Baylor offense, 93rd percentile · Iowa State defense, 45th
Iowa State’s passing EPA against Baylor’s defense
Iowa State offense, 47th percentile · Baylor defense, 93rd
What’s at stake
Iowa State
- Iowa State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 83% to get there with a win here, 42% with a loss.
- A win would be one of Iowa State’s biggest of the season — a 85-spot gap in the power ratings.
Baylor
- Baylor needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 76% with a loss.
- Baylor is coming off a 32-point win.
The series
Baylor leads the series 12-11
23 meetings since 1988 · Iowa State has won the last 2
- 2024Iowa State 43-21
- 2023Iowa State 30-18
- 2022Baylor 31-24
- 2021Baylor 31-29
- 2020Iowa State 38-31
Each line is Baylor’s chance to win through that meeting. Baylor is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Iowa State
The chip · vs big brotherThe chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted Campbell's era to flip that for good, and now they have to defend it all over again.
Baylor
The chip · vs the national mediaBears fans say the country still files Baylor under one chapter of its past and refuses to look at what the program rebuilt — they say Waco won a Big 12 title the honest way and never got credit for the climb.
What this game touches
The 2025 regression under Aranda. Four years after the Big 12 title, Baylor slid to 5-7 in 2025 despite Sawyer Robertson leading the nation in passing yards — a defense that ranked near the bottom of FBS dragged the Bears below .500, reviving the question of whether the Aranda revival had stalled.
Best players
Iowa State
- Sullivan Schlimgen (LB) · 79 tackles
- Aiden Flora (RB) · 937 rushing yards
- Carson Willich (LB) · 50 tackles
Baylor
- Gavin Freeman (WR) · 792 receiving yards
- Travion Barnes (LB) · 54 tackles
- Micah Gifford (S) · 42 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Jaylen Raynor (QB) — Iowa State’s leading passer (1,416 passing yards) takes on Baylor’s pass defense (93rd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Baylor fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (47th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Baylor favored by 10 · Total 50.5
Baylor by 10: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Baylor’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Iowa State at Baylor · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FS1 · McLane Stadium.
- 66°feels like
- 3%average rain chance
- 16 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at McLane Stadium: noon Saturdays score 80, 3:30 pm 79, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 80, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Baylor has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.5 points (±3.9), home against road — 4th percentile of FBS.
55% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 21-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 747 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Baylor
- Wk 4Wvs Colorado23-13
- Wk 5Wat Arizona State55-19
- Wk 7Lvs TCU6-17
- Wk 8Lat Kansas24-25
- Wk 9Wat UCF41-9
Iowa State
- Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31
- Wk 5Wvs West Virginia45-42
- Wk 6Lat BYU10-24
- Wk 8Lat Arizona3-39
- Wk 9Wvs Oklahoma State51-49
Power rating by week
Baylor is rated 11.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Baylor.
Spread: −9.5 → −10
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Baylor5th3-2
- Iowa State12th2-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Baylor 31, Iowa State 29Sep 25, 2021
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2016.