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FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

Big 12

#5 overall#5 in FBSRR50 +14.2Upper strength +17.216 teamsTop 25 teams 3

THE LONG WAIT · 2025

The Rebuilt League

The Big 12 absorbed UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston in 2023, then lost Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC and gained Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah in 2024 — three full rounds of realignment that redrew the conference map entirely. Boise State joined from the Mountain West in 2026, completing the post-Pac-12 landscape.

Does the rebuilt Big 12 roster — now including Boise State and the Arizona schools — produce a legitimate CFP contender before the Power Four money gap widens further?

FBS16 teamsRace: CFP Access

Big 12 · 2026 Season Preview

Three Things to Watch

The New AnchorKansas State's Claim to Conference Royalty

With Texas and Oklahoma gone to the SEC, Kansas State has won or shared two of the last three Big 12 titles. Chris Klieman built the conference's most consistent program from the programs that stayed. They enter 2026 as the team with the longest claim to conference ownership in the post-realignment era — which is a strange sentence about Kansas State, and also completely true.

The Wild CardColorado and Deion's Third Year

Deion Sanders went 4-8 in year one, 9-3 in year two, and enters year three with the recruiting class and portal additions to contend in the Big 12. Colorado has not won the conference title since 1990. Whether Prime Time's ceiling in Boulder is a CFP appearance or a mid-tier bowl program is the Big 12's most-watched storyline in 2026.

The New ArrivalBoise State Joins and Immediately Matters

Boise State left the Mountain West — where they were dominant — for the Big 12 in 2026. They bring a 30-year history of playing above their budget and beating programs with twice their resources. The blue turf, the tradition, and the chips-on-shoulder identity arrive in a Power conference for the first time. If they win the Big 12 in year one, it will be the biggest first-year conference debut since TCU.

Conference Standings · Big 12 · 2025

Standings

# Team Conf Overall Pwr Last 5
1Texas Tech9–112–2+21.3
2BYU8–212–2+17.2
3Utah7–211–2+20.0
4Arizona7–39–4+17.0
5Houston6–310–3+14.2
6Arizona State6–38–5+14.1
7TCU5–49–4+15.2
8Iowa State5–48–4+15.5
9Cincinnati5–47–6+12.2
10Kansas State5–56–6+15.5
11Kansas3–65–7+12.3
12Baylor3–65–7+12.1
13UCF2–75–7+11.5
14West Virginia2–74–8+10.8
15Colorado1–83–9+10.4
16Oklahoma State0–91–11+8.4

Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.

Projected Standings · Big 12 · 2026

Win Projection

Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥9≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1Texas Tech6–3+7.16.341946739097✓✓✓
2Utah6–3+5.85.72103057809499✓✓
3BYU5–4+3.05.115184167879699✓
Challengers
4Kansas State5–4+1.24.93143561839599✓
5Iowa State5–4+1.34.93133461839599✓
6Arizona5–4+2.74.83123259819499✓
7Houston5–4-0.14.6292652779399✓
8TCU5–4+1.04.5292651769298✓
The Field
9Arizona State5–4-0.14.6292753779399✓
10UCF4–5-2.74.2161942688797✓
11Kansas4–5-2.04.0141537638596✓
12Baylor4–5-2.23.914143461839699
13Cincinnati4–5-2.13.73112955799499
Rebuilding
14Colorado4–5-3.93.73113055809499
15West Virginia4–5-3.43.73102955809599
16Oklahoma State3–6-5.83.3172044719199

Conference Power · FBS

Where We Stand

# Conference Avg Power vs Focal Top Team
1SEC
+15.1
1–3Ole Miss
2Big Ten
+14.8
4–3Indiana
3ACC
+14.4
7–3Miami
4Big 12You are here
+14.2
—Texas Tech
5American Athletic
+13.6
2–3North Texas
6Mountain West
+13.3
4–0San Diego State
7Sun Belt
+13.2
2–0James Madison
8Mid-American
+12.7
2–1Toledo
9Conference USA
+12.4
2–0Western Kentucky

Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Big 12's record vs. that conference across all games this season.

Championship market · 2025

Big 12 Title odds

#TeamBest oddsBooks
1Texas Tech+-1306bk
2BYU+5506bk
3Utah+6506bk
4Kansas State+12006bk
5Houston+12006bk
6Arizona+16006bk
7Arizona State+20006bk
8TCU+20006bk
9Oklahoma State+25006bk
10Baylor+18006bk
11Kansas+30006bk
12West Virginia+40006bk
13UCF+35006bk
14Cincinnati+70006bk
15Iowa State+66006bk
16Colorado+50006bk

Sportsbook consensus — best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22 · American odds (e.g. +450 means bet $100 to win $450)

Big 12 has real upper-tier density. The top of the board raises the conference ceiling without the rest of the league completely falling away.

Conference Snapshot

RR50+14.2
Upper Strength+17.2
Median Power+14.0
Resume Pulse79.1
Avg ATS51.5%
Wins vs Market-0.18
Top-to-Middle Gap7.2
Combined Record115-87

`RR50`, `Upper Strength`, and `Median Power` are shown on the same public power scale as the rest of the site: points on a neutral field versus the average all-level NCAA team. Very small affiliations are gently regressed toward their subdivision baseline so a one-team outlier does not hijack the entire conference board.

Big 12 Team Board

The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.

Rank Team Record Power Resume ATS Wins vs Market Recent Form
#5 Texas Tech 12-2 +21.3 99 12-2 +0.32 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W14 W15 L18)
#9 Utah 11-2 +20.0 98 9-3 +1.11 4-0 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 W18)
#24 BYU 12-2 +17.2 99 10-4 +3.06 3-1 over the last 4 (W13 W14 L15 W18)
#27 Arizona 9-4 +17.0 94 8-5 +0.91 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 W13 W14 L19)
#48 Iowa State 8-4 +15.5 92 5-7 +0.31 3-1 over the last 4 (L10 W11 W13 W14)
#50 Kansas State 6-6 +15.5 85 5-7 -1.21 2-2 over the last 4 (L10 W12 L13 W14)
#53 TCU 9-4 +15.2 94 6-6 +0.66 3-1 over the last 4 (L12 W13 W14 W18)
#66 Houston 10-3 +14.2 96 9-4 +1.95 3-1 over the last 4 (W11 L13 W14 W18)
#67 Arizona State 8-5 +14.1 90 6-6 +0.35 2-2 over the last 4 (W12 W13 L14 L18)
#102 Kansas 5-7 +12.3 72 4-7 -2.11 1-3 over the last 4 (W10 L11 L13 L14)
#105 Cincinnati 7-6 +12.2 80 6-7 -0.80 0-4 over the last 4 (L12 L13 L14 L18)
#106 Baylor 5-7 +12.1 69 2-10 -1.87 1-3 over the last 4 (W10 L12 L13 L14)
#121 UCF 5-7 +11.5 61 4-8 -1.61 1-3 over the last 4 (L11 L12 W13 L14)
#143 West Virginia 4-8 +10.8 59 6-6 -0.20 2-2 over the last 4 (W10 W11 L12 L14)
#156 Colorado 3-9 +10.4 48 6-6 -1.92 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L13 L14)
#203 Oklahoma State 1-11 +8.4 29 5-6 -1.87 0-4 over the last 4 (L10 L12 L13 L14)

Biggest Risers

Rank movement since the most recent refresh.

No meaningful risers from the last refresh.

Biggest Faders

Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.

No meaningful faders from the last refresh.

ATS Leaders

Who beat the number most often this season.

TeamCover RateRecord
Texas Tech85.7%12-2 ATS
Utah75.0%9-3 ATS
BYU71.4%10-4 ATS
Houston69.2%9-4 ATS
Arizona61.5%8-5 ATS

Wins vs Market

Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.

TeamWins vs MarketSample
BYU+3.0614 lined games
Houston+1.9513 lined games
Utah+1.1113 lined games
Arizona+0.9113 lined games
TCU+0.6613 lined games

Depth & Parity

How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.

Top Rank#5 Texas Tech
Bottom Rank#203 Oklahoma State
Top-to-Middle Gap7.2
Power Spread3.4
Top 25 Teams3
Top 100 Teams9

Moderately layered — the league has real tiers but no runaway gap between them. Power Spread is the standard deviation of neutral-field power across league members.