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Big 12

The Rebuilt League

Does the rebuilt Big 12 roster — now including Boise State and the Arizona schools — produce a legitimate CFP contender before the Power Four money gap widens further?

Big 12 looks stronger on team quality than on season resume, which makes it a dangerous future-facing league.

#4overall

#4in FBS

+8.3RR50

+12.3upper strength

16teams

3top-25 teams

Big 12, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — last season final records.

Team Power Record RR50

Texas Tech

0-0 +18.7

BYU

0-0 +13.0

Utah

0-0 +12.5

Arizona State

0-0 +11.1

Kansas State

0-0 +11.0

Houston

0-0 +10.6

TCU

0-0 +10.5

Arizona

0-0 +10.5

Baylor

0-0 +9.1

Kansas

0-0 +7.8

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

The Rebuilt League

The Big 12 absorbed UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston in 2023, then lost Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC and gained Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah in 2024 — three full rounds of realignment that redrew the conference map entirely. Boise State joined from the Mountain West in 2026, completing the post-Pac-12 landscape.

3 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. A wide talent spread separates the haves from the have-nots.

The question heading into 2026.

Does the rebuilt Big 12 roster — now including Boise State and the Arizona schools — produce a legitimate CFP contender before the Power Four money gap widens further?

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Coaching Story

Texas Tech Went 12-2 With the 48th Recruiting Class

Texas Tech finished 12-2 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #48 nationally — the second-biggest coaching premium in the Big 12 by the numbers. Joey McGuire built a program that wins with scheme and development, not recruiting, in a conference where most programs with that recruiting rank finish 5-7. The Big 12's best coaching story is happening in Lubbock and most people aren't watching closely enough.

Why it matters →

The Collapse

Oklahoma State Went 1-11 With a Top-50 Class

Oklahoma State finished 2025 at 1-11 with a recruiting class ranked #53 nationally. The gap between raw talent and results was the widest in the conference — a program that built its identity on player development and coaching suddenly failing at both. Whether 2026 is a reset or a continued slide is the conference's most uncomfortable question.

Why it matters →

The Recruiting Question

Texas Has the Talent. The Results Say Otherwise.

Texas holds the #1 recruiting class in the conference entering 2026 — and went 10-3 in 2025, which sounds good until you compare it to what Texas Tech did with the #48 class. The Longhorns' talent floor is the highest in the league. Whether that translates to a conference title before the 2026 offseason realignment window reshapes the map again is the conference's defining power-structure question.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

Active8wk ago

NFL denies supplemental draft for Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby

Will Brendan Sorsby ever be cleared to play for Texas Tech?

Texas TechBYU

Developing1wk ago

Iowa and Iowa State Extend Cy-Hawk Football Series Through 2031

What impact will the extended rivalry have on both programs' future schedules and competitive dynamics?

Iowa State

Developing1wk ago

Ole Miss Football Position Battle I'm Watching Closest During Fall Camp - S

Which players will emerge victorious in these critical position battles?

Houston

Developing3mo ago

Alabama cancels home-and-home series with Oklahoma State

Why did Alabama decide to cancel its scheduled games with Oklahoma State?

Oklahoma State

Developing1wk ago

Texas A&M to host Red, White and Blue Game against Arizona State

Will the return of the Red, White and Blue Game mark a turning point for Texas A&M football?

Arizona State

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 2,762 mentions

16% positive 52% neutral 32% negative

Texas Tech

568

↓ negative

BYU

268

↓ negative

West Virginia

255

↓ negative

Iowa State

236

↓ negative

Oklahoma State

229

↓ negative

Kansas State

164

↓ negative

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Big 12 program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 41st percentile.

Bullish-4

Bullish-17

Leaning+7

Leaning-10

Leaning-15

Leaning-8

Mixed-32

Mixed-13

Mixed-24

Mixed-9

Mixed-24

Mixed-13

Souring–

Souring-13

Souring-13

Souring-6

Rivalry face-offs

Arizona vs Arizona State

Fan face-off →

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Big 12 teams, 16 programs.

Coaching premium ↑

K-State

+18

Texas

+11

TCU

+11

Arizona

+10

Baylor

Underperforming ↓

WVU

-66

Okla. St.

-31

Iowa St.

-25

Cincinnati

-25

Colorado

-23

Standings

2026 final — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	Texas Tech Power Program III#26	0-0	+18.7	+97.9
2	BYU National Program I#32	0-0	+13.0	+93.8
3	Utah Power Program II#20	0-0	+12.5	+92.4
4	Arizona State National Program I#36	0-0	+11.1	+90.0
5	Kansas State Power Program III#27	0-0	+11.0	+89.3
6	Houston National Program II#43	0-0	+10.6	+88.2
7	TCU Power Program II#23	0-0	+10.5	+87.9
8	Arizona National Program II#59	0-0	+10.5	+87.5
9	Baylor National Program I#35	0-0	+9.1	+83.7
10	Kansas Regional Program I#75	0-0	+7.8	+81.7
11	Iowa State National Program I#39	0-0	+5.8	+73.0
12	Cincinnati National Program II#46	0-0	+5.1	+71.6
13	UCF National Program II#50	0-0	+4.3	+70.9
14	Colorado Regional Program II#94	0-0	+3.9	+69.2
15	West Virginia National Program II#61	0-0	+3.6	+68.9
16	Oklahoma State National Program II#44	0-0	+2.6	+65.1

Projected Standings · Big 12 · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥9	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	Texas Tech	7–2	+10.0	6.7	7	30	60	83	95	99	✓	✓	✓
2	BYU	6–3	+4.2	5.5	1	7	24	50	75	91	98	✓	✓
3	Utah	5–4	+3.8	5.4	1	7	23	48	74	90	98	✓	✓
Challengers
4	Kansas State	5–4	+2.2	5.1	1	5	18	41	67	87	96	99	✓
5	Houston	5–4	+1.8	5.0		3	15	37	64	86	96	99	✓
6	Arizona State	5–4	+2.3	5.0		3	14	36	64	85	96	99	✓
7	TCU	5–4	+1.8	4.7		2	10	29	55	79	93	99	✓
8	Arizona	5–4	+1.7	4.6		2	10	28	54	78	93	99	✓
The Field
9	Baylor	4–5	+0.3	4.3		1	7	21	46	72	90	98	✓
10	Kansas	4–5	-0.9	4.2		1	5	18	41	67	87	97	✓
11	Iowa State	4–5	-3.0	4.1		1	5	17	39	66	87	97	✓
12	UCF	4–5	-4.5	3.7			3	11	30	55	80	94	99
13	Cincinnati	3–6	-3.6	3.5			2	8	23	48	75	92	99
Rebuilding
14	Colorado	3–6	-4.9	3.4			2	8	22	47	74	92	99
15	West Virginia	3–6	-5.2	3.4			1	7	22	47	74	92	99
16	Oklahoma State	3–6	-6.1	3.3			1	6	19	43	70	90	99

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2025 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
Texas Tech	+0.25	43.8%	+1.33	+0.07	73.9	47.0%	Lockdown defense
BYU	+0.22	46.0%	+1.18	-0.05	66.5	43.3%	Lockdown defense
Utah	+0.35	49.3%	+1.28	-0.06	72.8	39.4%	Efficient offense
Arizona State	+0.13	39.8%	+1.28	-0.11	71.1	46.5%	Balanced
Kansas State	+0.20	40.1%	+1.42	-0.12	61.7	46.2%	Big-play offense
Houston	+0.10	41.3%	+1.25	-0.11	70.9	40.9%	Balanced
TCU	+0.20	44.5%	+1.28	-0.14	68.7	51.5%	Balanced
Arizona	+0.18	42.7%	+1.29	-0.06	69.8	49.3%	Balanced
Baylor	+0.20	44.9%	+1.30	-0.17	76.6	55.5%	Balanced
Kansas	+0.23	47.8%	+1.17	-0.22	64.2	44.8%	Efficient offense
Iowa State	+0.19	45.2%	+1.20	-0.10	68.7	42.0%	Balanced
Cincinnati	+0.30	47.0%	+1.35	-0.19	58.8	47.5%	Efficient offense
UCF	+0.15	39.9%	+1.35	-0.11	65.8	51.0%	Big-play offense
Colorado	+0.09	35.4%	+1.40	-0.19	65.0	45.6%	Can't sustain drives
West Virginia	+0.06	36.6%	+1.24	-0.15	70.8	38.5%	Can't sustain drives
Oklahoma State	-0.02	33.6%	+1.21	-0.26	64.0	47.5%	Can't sustain drives

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2025 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Big 12's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Evan JohnsonCB	BYU	#5 of 364
2	Jamel JohnsonS	TCU	#5 of 544
3	Eric McAlisterWR	TCU	#7 of 485
4	Eddie Walls IIIEDGE	Houston	#16 of 420
5	John Henry DaleyEDGE	Utah	#18 of 420
6	Jay'Vion ColeCB	Arizona	#22 of 364
7	LJ MartinRB	BYU	#10 of 326
8	Desmond PurnellLB	Kansas State	#31 of 583
9	Amare ThomasWR	Houston	#17 of 485
10	Blake HeroldIDL	Kansas	#22 of 330

Where Big 12 stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+11.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+10.1

3 IND FBS Independents

+9.4

4 B12 Big 12

+8.3

5 ACC ACC

+8.2

6 P12 Pac-12

+5.3

7 AAC American Athletic

+5.3

8 MW Mountain West

+4.0

9 SB Sun Belt

+3.7

10 CUSA Conference USA

+3.6

Big 12 title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	Texas Tech	-121
2	BYU	+550
3	Utah	+650
4	Kansas State	+1200
5	Houston	+1200
6	Arizona	+1600
7	Arizona State	+2000
8	Oklahoma State	+2500
9	TCU	+1700
10	Baylor	+1800