Kansas State6-6AP #174Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-11% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #17 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.
Kansas State is the program Bill Snyder dragged out of the sport's deepest hole and built on patience — and after a sideways 6-6 year and Chris Klieman's retirement, it just handed the keys to one of its own, Collin Klein.
Fans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the m…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Nicholls · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
Kansas State is the program Bill Snyder built from worst-in-FBS-history into Big 12 power — and the patience that legacy still rewards.
With a returning player base of 69% and a development-focused recruiting class ranked #50, Kansas State aims to build on its 2025 performance while managing roster turnover.
Willie the Wildcat watches the field.
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — their first step below the top-14% tier since 2024 raises questions about sustaining a #17 AP finish with a 6-6 record.
Collin Klein inherits a 6-6 even record and a program built on Bill Snyder's legacy, now reshaped by coordinator changes and the pressure to sustain its upper-tier status.
Kansas State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-11% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #17 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.
Collin Klein begins his first season at Kansas State with a 6-6 even record and an uneasy fanbase questioning if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain the program's legacy.
Garrett Oakley is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Jaron Tibbs is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Jayce Brown is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Klieman's 6-6 season defies the solo market signal of a win total bump — Snyder’s legacy still demands patience in Manhattan.
Collin Klein inherits a 69% production returning roster after replacing Chris Klieman — the program's identity demands stability, not just a new name on the sideline.
Kansas State promotes Logan Pawloski to head coach
Pawloski's promotion signals Klieman is betting on internal continuity while the win total climbs from 7.5 to 8.5 — the EDGE pressure and two draft departures make keeping the developmental pipeline intact a non-negotiable right now.
Win total: 7.5 → 8.5 (▲1)
A full win jump off a #35 class and two NFL exits tells you the market is buying Klein's first recruiting haul as real depth insurance — but EDGE pressure still unresolved means 8.5 is a ceiling bet, not a floor.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
22nd percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Kansas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Kansas State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 14% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 12%. It is a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons. The data dipped but the coverage hasn't followed. Either the model is ahead of the room or the room is wishful.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Kansas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 28 of 284 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Board health this week (168 posts): 17% positive · 49% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs Nicholls · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OK leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
99 signees across 26 states, 2023-2026. KS leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
10 games with TV coverage: 3 national broadcast, 3 ESPN, 3 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 5 noon, 3 afternoon, 2 primetime
81% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
13 of 16 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
22% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
13 interceptions of 58 disrupted passes (45 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
49 penalties committed, 53 drawn on opponents — ceding 57 yards of field position.
459 penalty yards committed vs. 402 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How Kansas State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readKansas State fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 168 posts from Kansas State fans this week.
“We'll match it, the only question is while Captain Dipshit still be our coach afterward.”— r/CFB
“What is Leiplods’s record in 1 score games? The last 2 years it seems like KU loses every time.”— r/CFB
“I forgot that he "resigned" right after a game against us. Not surprising, I think its been 4 Big12 coaches that got fired immediately after losing to KSU since I've been watching in 2011.”— r/CFB
“Ill add that the hit that sent him out of the game could easily have been called late. I thought it was clean but I have seen that draw a flag.”— r/CFB
“This is going to be a long season. I've already been suffering with the other flair”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Kansas State · high confidence
“A Matt Wells classic. Need 8 yards. 2yd TE screen.”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.22 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 204 / 341 | 59.8 | 2380 #72 FBS | 7.0 | 18 #49 FBS | 6 | 132.4 | 66.3 | 6.8 | 3.4 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage24.2% 58th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 4 tracked snapshots, 678 mentions | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.01 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 169 | 911 #58 FBS | 5.4 | 8 | 80 | 19.3 | 24.7 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 9.6% (30/311) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 4 tracked snapshots, 179 mentions our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 29th percentile to the 72nd among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 34 | 205 | 6.0 | 2 | 75 | 11.6 | 7.7 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6.6 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.45 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 41 | 712 | 17.4 | 5 | 78 | 16.2 | 14.7 | 21.5% (67/311) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.0 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jayce Brown's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 12 | 12 | 47 | 595 | 12.7 | 3 | 38 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 25.1% (78/311) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 bottom 42th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume47 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 35th percentile to the 72nd among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.52 EPA/play | 86 | 10 | 38 | 389 | 10.2 | 6 #62 FBS | 35 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 17.4% (54/311) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.1 bottom 40th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume38 91th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 69th percentile to the 86th among FBS TEs | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.55 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 13 | 184 | 14.2 | 2 | 65 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 6.1% (19/311) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.4% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jerand Bradley's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.45 EPA/play | 83 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 16.4 | 0 | 38 | 1.9 | 0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 18 | 1.5 | 3.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.04 EPA/play | 87 | 6 | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 | 18 | 3.2 | 2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.35 EPA/play | 80 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | 25 | 4.3 | 4.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.52 EPA/play | — | 4 | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 | 13 | 7.3 | 3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 8 | 12 | 28 | 17 | 4.5 | 2 | 7 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.1% bottom 37th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chiddi Obiazor's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 47 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.5% 53th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 25th to 36th to 56th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 10 | 20 | 14 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Damian Ilalio's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 44 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Speed RusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 12 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate20.0% 89th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 46th to 18th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight340 lb 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 64th percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 14th, now back up to 76th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 39 | 11 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Travis Bates's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.6% 73th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 91 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2023 class View Jordan Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 52 | 6 | 14 | 12 | 5.5 | 4 | 1 |
Speed RusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 12 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate28.6% 99th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ryan Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 32 | 12 | 72 | 51 | 21 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume72 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 96th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 77th | |||||||||
| Thumper | 45 | 10 | 66 | 41 | 25 | 7 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.6% 57th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.8% bottom 28th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Austin Romaine's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 28 | 11 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rex Van Wyhe's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Gabe Powers's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 23 | 9 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Asa Newsom's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 12 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume59 79th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View VJ Payne's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 25 | 12 | 57 | 10 #20 FBS | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 98th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Ball Hawk to Perimeter Tackler, his CFB Index score now sits at the 91st percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 10th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 bottom 48th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mar'Quavious Moss's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Gunner Maldonado's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 3 #56 FBS | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Daniel Cobbs's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 10 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Wesley Fair's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 10 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Donovan McIntosh's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 33th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Logan Bartley's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 84th to 20th percentile among FBS CBs | |||||||
| 36 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 43 | 12 | 13/15 | 86.7 | 42/42 | 81 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 8 | 12 | 48 | 2041 | 42.5 | 65 | 18 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 6 | 16 | 464 | 29 | 1 | 99 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.53 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 | 22 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+19 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #18 | #50 | -3 | Iowa State (N) | L 21–24 131 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 1 | Aug 30 | #18 | #148 | -27.5 | North Dakota | W 38–35 142 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #21 | #86 | -16.5 | Army | L 21–24 125 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #30 | #78 | -1.5 | @Arizona | L 17–23 132 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #38 | #80 | -6 | UCF | W 34–20 127 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #45 | #21 | +5 | @Baylor | L 34–35 144 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #39 | #34 | +2.5 | TCU | W 41–28 138 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #37 | #45 | +3.5 | @Kansas | W 42–17 130 | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #26 | #6 | +7 | Texas Tech | L 20–43 139 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #28 | #171 | -19.5 | @Oklahoma State | W 14–6 125 | 5-5 | 4-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #30 | #10 | +17.5 | @Utah | L 47–51 149 | 5-6 | 4-5 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #29 | #133 | -16.5 | Colorado | W 24–14 132 | 6-6 | 5-5 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | Colorado | W 24–14 | 321 | 0 | 30:37 | +0.241 | 41.3% | 129.0% | |
| Nov 22 | @Utah | L 47–51 | 574 | 1 | 30:56 | +0.555 | 49.3% | 161.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | @Oklahoma State | W 14–6 | 284 | 1 | 28:53 | +0.044 | 30.0% | 156.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 1 | Texas Tech | L 20–43 | 325 | 5 | 26:36 | +0.128 | 34.8% | 147.0% | |
| Oct 25 | @Kansas | W 42–17 | 371 | 1 | 27:20 | +0.279 | 45.5% | 154.0% | |
| Oct 11 | TCU | W 41–28 | 347 | 0 | 36:19 | +0.206 | 38.6% | 129.7% | |
| Oct 4 | @Baylor | L 34–35 | 501 | 1 | 37:47 | +0.214 | 46.3% | 128.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | UCF | W 34–20 | 438 | 1 | 32:09 | +0.189 | 44.4% | 126.3% | |
| Sep 13 | @Arizona | L 17–23 | 193 | 1 | 23:05 | -0.024 | 26.4% | 159.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Army | L 21–24 | 246 | 1 | 19:31 | +0.122 | 41.9% | 121.7% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | North Dakota | W 38–35 | 464 | 1 | 28:46 | +0.309 | 47.9% | 136.2% | One-score win |
| Aug 23 | Iowa State | L 21–24 | 383 | 2 | 26:08 | +0.114 | 35.1% | 154.8% | One-score loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 371 | 1.2 | +0.198 | 40.1% | 142.0% | ||||
Kansas State fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a solid, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
71st percentile quality, 49th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 25th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 33rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
37th percentile success on standard downs, 59th on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 51st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 85th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 81st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.21 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Kansas State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 5%) and passing epa allowed (top 31%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Kansas State sits at the 18th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Kansas State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Kansas State · 2018-present
69% home win rate vs 45% on the road. margin runs +12.5 better at home. Bill Snyder Family Stadium seats 50,000, averaging 103% full (51,598 attendance, 25 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Joe Jackson and Dylan Edwards split the carries (167/203 vs 36/203) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Dylan Edwards produces in bigger chunks.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Jaron Tibbs (WR) and Garrett Oakley (TE) split the targets (76/127 vs 51/127) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Kansas State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 136-play sample) — mid-pack, 48 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
66°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 79 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Kansas State's 2014–2025 record is 90-61. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1902 · 124 seasons · .437 win rate
Bill Snyder built Kansas State into a Big 12 champion from what the sport once called the worst job in football. Now Collin Klein — the Heisman finalist from Snyder's 2012 title team — is the head coach, and the program is climbing back from its worst season in years.
The Kansas State story is a specific kind of American story: the one where patience is the strategy. Snyder arrived in 1989 at a program that had won two conference games in the previous decade and built it, brick by brick, into Big 12 champions twice. The stadium bears his name. The statue outside it does too. The creed is EMAW — Every Man A Wildcat — and it means something in Manhattan that it doesn't mean as a slogan anywhere else, because the Wildcats earned it the slow way.
The 2025 season tested the faith. K-State opened ranked No. 17, then went 6-6, declined a bowl bid amid injuries and portal attrition, and watched Chris Klieman retire after the regular season — the program's first bowl-less year since 2020. The patient faction read it as a stumble. The doubting faction heard the old line again: that the program is Snyder's, that without one coach it reverts. Then Kansas State hired Collin Klein — the 2012 Big 12 title team's Heisman finalist, a former Wildcat QB who left Texas A&M to come home — and the bloodline-continues theory reasserted itself. Star QB Avery Johnson returns for 2026.
The 2026 season is Klein's opening argument. The program's Big 12 title drought goes back to 2012, and a 6-6 year made the case for the doubters. Klein's case is the same one Snyder always made: Manhattan builds what it builds, out-lasts what it out-lasts, and the patience pays off. The fanbase has believed that long enough that it's structural. The question is whether one of their own, inheriting the program at its lowest recent point, can make the argument stick.
Grit-and-patience football — disciplined, low-mistake, built to outlast opponents rather than overwhelm them. The run game and ball control set the tempo; the defense is the product of relentless conditioning and scheme depth over star power. Avery Johnson adds a QB-run dimension that modernizes the attack without abandoning the identity. The fan character is plainspoken and allergic to flash — a fanbase that measures itself by toughness and longevity, not highlight reels, and whose stadium has a man's name on it who proved patience pays.
Kansas State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.16 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 6-6 · AP #17
Kansas State: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
Big 12 Standing · 2025
Kansas State is 10th of 16 in the Big 12 at 5-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Kansas State
Collin Klein took over from Chris Klieman for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1990s
EMAW — 'Every Man A Wildcat' — is the program's chant + brand + recruiting pitch + alumni greeting. Snyder-era origin; carried by fanbase as universal identity marker. Replaces 'Hello' between alumni at airports.
since 1968
K-State's unofficial fight song — a 1930s folk-railroad ballad adopted by the band in 1968. Plays after every score and at every alumni event. The sound of 50,000 purple-shirted fans singing the Cannonball in unison is the program's auditory identity.
since 2014
The Bill Snyder statue outside Bill Snyder Family Stadium honors the coach who transformed K-State from 'worst program in FBS history' (pre-1989) into Big 12 power. Photos with the statue are a season-ticket-holder ritual; recruits walk past it on every campus visit.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2003
K-State stuns top-ranked Oklahoma 35-7 to win its first Big 12 title
Snyder's second title behind Collin Klein's Heisman-finalist year
2025
After a 6-6 season Chris Klieman retires and former QB Collin Klein returns to lead the program
Wound
Moment of the Year · Kansas State · 2025
Week 7 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — win 44-41 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202614 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Sean Gleeson — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Jordan Peterson — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Kansas State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Kansas State · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Kansas State
Season Standing · 2025 · 6-6 · AP #17
Coaching Era · Kansas State
Moment of the Year · Kansas State · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline