Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Oklahoma State (5‑3) at Kansas State (4‑4) — Oklahoma State is favored by 4.5. Oklahoma State’s offense is at the 91st percentile on efficiency; Kansas State’s defense is at the 40th.
How they got here
Last three games
Oklahoma State · 5-3
Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 80th now, up 182 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Kansas State · 4-4
Rated 32nd in our preseason ratings, 60th now, down 28 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s EPA/play against Kansas State, 51 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oklahoma State’s EPA/play against Kansas State’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 91st percentile · Kansas State defense, 40th
Oklahoma State’s rushing EPA against Kansas State’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 68th percentile · Kansas State defense, 18th
Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Kansas State’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 25th percentile · Kansas State defense, 5th
What’s at stake
Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 68% with a loss.
- Oklahoma State is the program that lived in Mike Gundy's mullet for 20 years and built a Big 12 identity around being not-Oklahoma.
Kansas State
- Kansas State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 86% to get there with a win here, 48% with a loss.
- Kansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Oklahoma State leads the series 43-26
69 meetings since 1917 · Kansas State has won the last 2
- 2025Kansas State 14-6
- 2024Kansas State 42-20
- 2023Oklahoma State 29-21
- 2022Kansas State 48-0
- 2021Oklahoma State 31-20
Each line is Kansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kansas State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Oklahoma State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase spent a generation insisting Stillwater was its own program, not a satellite of the school 80 miles south. A 1-11 season handed Oklahoma every easy joke — and the room is daring Morris to make the rivalry feel like a rivalry again.
What this game touches
The 1-11 collapse and the end of Gundy. Mike Gundy, the program's identity for 21 seasons, was fired on September 23 after a 1-2 start curdled into the worst year in modern memory: 1-11 overall, 0-9 in the Big 12, ten straight losses. The man who built Oklahoma State into a sustained winner left as the season that ended his tenure became the program's lowest point in a generation.
Kansas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the man, and the 6-6 year just gave the doubters their opening again.
What this game touches
The 2025 stumble and Klieman's exit. K-State opened 2025 ranked No. 17, then went 6-6 and declined a bowl amid a coaching change, injuries and portal losses. Chris Klieman retired after the regular season — an unexpected handoff that left Manhattan steadying itself rather than contending, the program's first bowl-less year since 2020.
Best players
Oklahoma State
- Ethan Wesloski (LB) · 76 tackles
- Drew Mestemaker (QB) · 2,649 passing yards — Heisman odds: 27th (+4000)
- Tate Romney (LB) · 63 tackles
Kansas State
- Logan Bartley (S) · 54 tackles
- Mekhi Mason (LB) · 38 tackles
- Gabe Powers (LB) · 34 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Caleb Hawkins (RB) — Oklahoma State’s leading rusher (906 rushing yards) takes on Kansas State’s run defense (18th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Kansas State since opening (+6.5 → +4.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Oklahoma State fans are in a better mood than Kansas State fans (78th percentile vs 22nd among FBS fanbases), even with Kansas State favored.
- Model · 74%
- Line · 36%
- Kansas State fans · 22nd
- Oklahoma State fans · 78th
Oklahoma State favored by 4.5 · Total 61.5
Oklahoma State by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Oklahoma State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 1 pm ET · TNT · Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
- 56°feels like
- 2%average rain chance
- 5 mphwind gusts
- 99weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Bill Snyder Family Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 83, 7:30 pm 89.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Kansas State is worth +5.4 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.
65% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 214 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Kansas State
- Wk 4Lat Cincinnati26-31
- Wk 6Lvs Houston16-35
- Wk 7Wvs Kansas35-24
- Wk 8Lat Arizona State17-28
- Wk 9Lat Colorado24-27
Oklahoma State
- Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24
- Wk 6Wvs UCF42-28
- Wk 7Lat Houston32-35
- Wk 8Wvs Colorado57-24
- Wk 9Lat Iowa State49-51
Power rating by week
Kansas State is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Kansas State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +6.5 → +4.5 · Total: 60.5 → 61.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Kansas State16th1-4
- Oklahoma State4th3-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Kansas State 48, Oklahoma State 0Oct 29, 2022
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.